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Sealed bids and gazumping return to central London in boost for property market

Sealed bids and gazumping have returned to central London in a remarkable spring revival of a market in “deep freeze” for two years.

Buying agents said the number of clients looking for “Brexit bargains” in areas such as Knightsbridge and Canary Wharf had soared by as much as a third in recent weeks.

Interest is most intense in the sub-£1 million bracket where stamp duty rates are lower, but also in the £3 million to £5 million range, with Chinese buyers particularly keen to invest.

Prices in prime central London areas have fallen by an average of 12.5 per cent since they peaked in late 2014, when former chancellor George Osborne increased stamp duty on properties over £1 million, according to agents Savills.

This, combined with a 16 per cent fall in the value of the pound against the dollar since the EU referendum last June, means that the London market is now around 30 per cent cheaper for a foreign buyer — and as much as 50 per cent less expensive for some individual properties.

Trevor Abrahmsohn, managing director of agents Glentree International, said: “We’ve been through a torrid time but Brexit has saved the property market at the higher end. I am delighted to say we have agreed £30 million of sales in the past two weeks. We had a run of seven sales in the £3 million to £5 million range and are now short of stock.”

The recent stability in the pound has also persuaded some investors that it is now “safe” to plough their money back into London bricks and mortar.

Jo Eccles, of buying agent Sourcing Property, said: “The market is definitely picking up across all price brackets. We have been bidding on a family house in Knightsbridge for just under £5 million, there is competition from another buyer and the vendor has this afternoon asked to go to sealed bids.

“We have seen nearly 35 per cent increase in the past three weeks in the number of buying clients we are representing and a 60 per cent increase in serious enquiries from potential buying clients over the past two weeks.”

Camilla Dell, managing partner of agent Black Brick, said: “We are also seeing a return of competitive bidding across the spectrum, particularly on property that is priced correctly in line with the current market.

“We have also seen a return of gazumping. We recently secured a flat in Canary Wharf for a client at £1.48 million. Our initial offer of £1.44 million was accepted but we were gazumped by another buyer who offered £1.5 million. Luckily, we managed to re-agree the sale at the original asking price as our client was a cash buyer.”

Cherie Blair was allegedly gazumped by a British actress after trying to buy a five-bedroom house in Marylebone for her daughter. The barrister, 62, is said to have had an offer of £2,765,000 accepted for the Georgian property, only to be outdone by a higher offer from St Trinian’s star Talulah Riley. The actress, 31, who divorced tech billionaire Elon Musk for the second time last year, reportedly paid £3 million.

Another factor has been the closing of the price gap between central London and the suburbs where there have been double-digit annual rises in prices over the past two years. An example of prime property being snapped up is a five-bedroom townhouse in Highgate that was on the market for £6,950,000 and is now under offer.

Jonathan Hopper, managing director of the buying agents Garrington Property Finders, said: “Prices in the outer boroughs will never catch those in prime London, but the boom in the ’burbs is narrowing the gap with the flagging centre — and making properties of all sizes in desirable postcodes appear better value.”

‘Very British and very discreet’: the revival of London’s St James’s

By Nicola Venning

In its heyday, dukes, dandies, artists and politicians all lived and socialised in St James’s, London. The district, convenient for both St James’s Palace and the Houses of Parliament, was the height of fashion. Gladstone, Sir Isaac Newton and William Thackeray all lived here.

The Earl of Shelburne, later Marquess of Lansdowne and Prime Minister, liked St James’s so much he even founded his own club, Boodle’s, in 1762.

There are still nine private members’ clubs and hotels in and around St James’s Street. The area, which is only now beginning to return to its residential roots, was the place for the wealthy gentleman.

“It’s old English posh,” says Peter Byfield, a restaurateur and entrepreneur who moved to St James’s from Mayfair 18 years ago and has lived there ever since. “St James’s is an incredibly old-fashioned and dignified place to be.”

After the Second World War, the area gradually became more commercial and, with fewer people living there, St James’s lost some of its charm. Now, however, a change in planning rules, allowing office-to-residential conversion, is creating more homes and giving the district “a new lease of life”, says Simon Burgoyne of Knight Frank. “The quality of the apartments is attracting both the British and the international market.”

One such development is Dukelease’s Beau House in Jermyn Street, named after the Regency dandy Beau Brummell. The socialite’s fastidious dress sense and patronage of the local tailors helped make Jermyn Street famous – and the new homes reflect this. The eight apartments are as bespoke as a handmade suit and with the same attention to traditional detail.

A two-bedroom apartment in St James’s Chambers is on the market with Knight Frank for £3.25 million

The many unique features include leather-panelled walls, walnut cabinetry and herringbone-pattern oak floors. There are Calacatta marble floors, Boffi kitchens and Romana Salperton wall lights.

Prices start from £1.85 million for a one-bedroom apartment over 657 sq ft, and rise to a sizeable £15 million for the three-bedroom furnished penthouse, which comes with a TV-equipped roof terrace and views of Christopher Wren’s St James’s church. The homes are being marketed by Knight Frank.

Jermyn Street’s distinctive shops, some of which are still owned by the descendants of the original families that established them, have been frequented by Diana, Princess of Wales, Ted Heath and Joanna Lumley.

Its ‘olde worlde charme’ and postage-stamp size mean that buying a home in St James’s is not easy

“Jermyn Street is a curiosity area,” says Richard Harvie, owner of Harvie and Hudson shirtmakers. “People love going into old family businesses that have not changed a lot, with slightly creaky wood floors, and which do not exist anywhere else in the world.”

However, St James’s “olde worlde charme” and postage-stamp size (it is wedged between Piccadilly and the Mall) means that buying a home here is not easy, as “there are very few flats”, says Caspar Harvard Walls, partner with the buying agency Black Brick.

Westminster council estimates that there are just 7,239 households in St James’s. Unlike Mayfair or Knightsbridge, there are few large blocks of serviced apartments and even fewer with fancy hotel facilities, gyms and spas.

“St James’s is not showy; it’s very British and very discreet,” says Harvard Walls. “It appeals to a certain type of buyer.”

A bespoke decorated flat in Dukelease’s Beau House in Jermyn Street, on the market with Knight Frank from £1.85 million

The majority of developments are boutique, with clusters of (generally small) one- and two-bedroom flats for between £1 million and £2.5 million – roughly £2,000 to £2,500 per sq ft. Newbuild apartments, often behind elegant Georgian and Victorian listed facades, are pricier and reach £3,000 per sq ft and more. Knight Frank is selling The Pall Mall Collection and three of the four apartments remain; a three-bedroom flat is £4.95 million and a four-bedroom penthouse is on the market for £8.95 million.

House prices there are not all in the millions, as Horne and Harvey is selling a one-bedroom flat on the fourth floor of a portered building in Duke of York Street for £950,000.

“The streets are quite densely packed and often people want to be higher up, on the second floor or above, as it can be quite dark lower down,” says Harvard Walls.

The Crown Estate, which owns around 50 per cent of the buildings in the area, is halfway through a £500 million refurbishment programme of its St James’s portfolio, which, although it consists mainly of retail such as St James’s Market, includes some new homes as well.

There’s a lot of demand, too: recent redevelopments such as Cleveland Court, near St James’s Palace, have all swiftly sold.

Forthcoming apartments, which will only be available to rent, include huge, lateral three-bedroom flats and a five-bedroom penthouse in 30 St James’s. All will be available at the end of this year.

Surrounded by art galleries and smart restaurants, with the West End and the park within strolling distance, St James’s appeals to the buyer who “has a house in the country and wants a pied-à-terre in London”, says Harvard Walls, “so they can walk to work and to the opera”.

Virtual reality tours for house hunting? We aren’t convinced!

By Annabelle Williams

Estate agents are investing in headsets, but not everyone is convinced.

Estate agencies are spending tens of thousands of pounds developing virtual-reality tours of high-end properties, so buyers can privately gaze at the interior of immaculate homes, including those yet to be built, in their own time.

JLL, the property consultant, is working with a virtual-reality company to offer virtual tours of properties for sale, or to let. It says the tours, available this spring, will be “fully immersive and as close to reality as possible”.

“The benefits include saving time,” Tim des Forges, a director at JLL, says. “Rather than the buyer being taken to see 20 flats, they can view them virtually and perhaps opt to see only their top three in person. Some may buy or rent only after seeing the virtual tour.”

The estate agency Carter Jonas is going one better. Using new technology, it has launched what it believes is the first virtual-reality tour to include an estate agent — viewers can follow an agent through a house, yet virtually look around and turn away from them. Carter Jonas says you would not let a buyer wander round your home without guidance, so why would you do so virtually?

The prototype is being used for a development in Leinster Square, in Notting Hill, west London, and is expected to be offered at two other central London developments, and one outside the capital. “The difference [with our technology] is that I’m in the video speaking,” says Amelia Blake, a London residential sales specialist at Carter Jonas.

Virtual-reality technology has been around for decades, but has not yet been good enough, nor cost-effective, for general use. Yet it has made big leaps in portraying spatial depth, which buyers can’t gauge from a floor plan or pictures.

Tours typically will be offered through an app downloaded on to a smartphone and viewed through a headset.

In Asia, however, tours are often viewed on tablets.

“Some clients do not want to put goggles on their head,” says Alex Newall, the managing director and founder of Hanover Private Office, a property consultancy.

The technology is often aimed at overseas investors. “In the prime central London market, international buyers are crucial to the business so we do what we can to accommodate their needs,” Blake says. Virtual reality has been vital for developers selling off-plan apartments, says Newall, and at a time when high-end property sales have slowed, estate agents might consider investment in virtual reality money well spent.

However, not all experts are convinced that virtual-reality viewings, however high-tech, are going to catch on for properties already built. “They are fun gimmicks, but anyone who is going to buy a house will visit it,” says Newall. “It doesn’t sell the house.”

He says that investment in drone photography has been more revolutionary for marketing properties.

Camilla Dell, the founder of Black Brick Property Solutions, an independent buying consultancy, says: “I have seen very little evidence of high-net-worth clients using this sort of technology. When people are spending millions, 99.9 per cent of the time they will get on a plane and see it, and we would be worried if they did not.” At best it may help clients to draw up a shortlist, but ultimately the virtual-reality experience cannot replicate being in a property and seeing the neighbourhood, and older buyers see it as a faff rather than helpful, Dell says.

Nonetheless, sellers yet to be convinced of the usefulness of virtual reality should perhaps keep the faith; it will provide them with useful analytics, including “how long buyers spend in each room, what they look at and what’s important to them,” says des Forges. “Sellers can take this information to maximise the potential of their property, and agents will be able to use it for future instructions, for example, by telling you that 60 per cent of virtual reality viewing was spent looking in the kitchen — so it’s good to place an emphasis on it.”

What to look out for when you’re buying a new build property in London

By Camilla Dell

As property advisers, we are often asked what is the best kind of investment in London – a new build property or an older style or period property?

New build developments certainly have a natural appeal in that everything is brand new, which means buyers can put their own stamp on the property and maintenance should be low. People also like the concept of buying off plan, on the basis that prices will rise as the development nears completion. What’s more, off-plan developments often offer more flexible payment options.

When buying off plan, there are a number of things to be wary of. The biggest risk is that you can’t actually inspect the property. You need to be able to read the floor plan and visualise how the flat will look and what the outlook will be like, which can be challenging for the untrained eye. Swanky marketing suites can also often be very misleading.

You also need to take into account things like service charges, as many developers now calculate service charge on price per square foot basis, which can be confusing, and can significantly add to your annual expenditure, an important factor to consider particularly if you plan on renting the property out.

It is also important to consider the potential for capital growth. Many new builds can be priced as much as 30 per cent higher than surrounding re-sale properties, and as a buyer, you need to ask yourself whether that premium is justified. Looking back over the boom and bust periods of London’s property market, it is the older, period style properties which have tended to appreciate most over time.

New builds usually appreciate far slower, especially as they are often located in ‘up and coming’ areas, where supply outstrips demand. When the market drops, these developments tend to take a much bigger hit due to a combination of location and the fact that there is a higher density of similar properties in the area, with prices falling up to 20 per cent in some cases.

We recommend taking into consideration the location, as well as the “rarity” factor of the building. For example, we have purchased several apartments in the former BBC Television Centre development in White City for clients. This is a particularly interesting new development thanks in part to its history, its proximity to transport links, as well as Westfield shopping centre.

Clients of ours who bought into the scheme in early 2015 have already seen a 10 per cent uplift in the value, and we are encouraged by the fact that there is very little evidence of buyers trying to sell on their contracts before completion.

Another consideration when buying new is that there are deals to be had. Developers with completing stock are more able to play with their margins and are able to give ‘deals’ to their buyers. Buyers should be wary of developer incentives, such as offering to pay stamp duty, though – the cost is often made up in the asking price of these so-called “incentives”.

When weighing up the options, the key to buying new build property is to do your homework; seek impartial advice on the developer, the area – check the local council’s housing policy for further developments – and the property itself.

Yes, you can have a ‘glam room’ like Melania

By Ruth Bloomfield

A dedicated space for doing hair, nails and make-up is becoming a must-have in high-end homes

Donald and Melania Trump have been handed the keys to the White House. This means that, in keeping with tradition, the Trumps are allowed to make changes to the property to meet their family’s needs.

While Michelle Obama spent her early days as first lady focusing on cultivating the vegetable garden so her family could eat fresh vegetables, this week we discovered that Melania’s priority is to add a “glam room”.

“There will absolutely be a room designated for hair, make-up and wardrobe,” says her make-up artist, Nicole Bryl, reassuring those who were worried there wasn’t going to be.

It is in this room that Bryl will toil for the 75 minutes of “uninterrupted focus” it takes to do the first lady’s make-up each time. “Melania wants a room with the perfect lighting scenario, which will make our jobs as a creative team that much more efficient,” Bryl adds.

Yet Mrs Trump is not the only woman who takes her beauty routine so seriously that it warrants its own room. Glam rooms are a feature in the most expensive homes in this country — and may become more popular among women who hope to copy Melania’s über-groomed approach to life.

So what is a glam room? It’s a glorified dressing room — a room with good lighting and space for a hairdresser and make-up artist to work their magic, possibly with a hair-washing station. Above all, it is somewhere with eye-wateringly expensive shelving, with compartments for belts, rings, watches and handbags. One central London glam room even features a cosmetics fridge designed to keep the owner’s make-up at the optimum temperature.

Camilla Dell, a buying agent, reports that she has viewed homes with not only glam rooms, but glam suites, where a separate lounge area containing a minibar and TV is located off a dressing room, so “all the girls can discuss and debate outfits”, Dell says.

Carrie Bradshaw would approve; Emmeline Pankhurst, not so much. Penny Mosgrove, the chief executive of Quintessentially Estates, a company that sells houses starting at £3 million and rising to £20 million, says that among her clients glam rooms are a must-have. If one doesn’t exist, some wealthy buyers will sacrifice a bedroom to create one.

The estate agent Charlie Gibson, who works in the Mayfair office of Carter Jonas, reports that he has also seen properties with a male equivalent, called grooming rooms. “I have seen a barber shop set-up within a very expensive property, where the Mayfair barber Geo F Trumper visits for a grooming appointment,” Gibson says.

It is common for the incoming president and the first lady to redecorate parts of the 132-room political mansion. The Obamas filled the property with contemporary art and replaced a bust of Churchill with that of Martin Luther King; Laura Bush faithfully restored the Green Room, used for small receptions and teas.

As with the presidential campaign, the Trumps may do things differently. Based on the interiors in the family’s New York home, the glam room — possibly like the rest of the house — will feature a 1980s aesthetic, with lots of gold, ostentatious chandeliers and pictures of Donald Trump in manly poses.

The interior designer Mhairi Coyle says: “It is like the interior design you see in casinos: the more detail, the more pattern, the more colour you can put in the place, the better. With a personality like Donald Trump’s, he’d want everything over the top.

Ten places where house prices are set to rise

By Ruth Bloomfield

Some locations are defying a downbeat Brexit market — with revived urban areas leading the way even at the best of times there are no sure things in property — and with political and economic uncertainty as a backdrop, coupled with tax changes that have hit many buyers hard, this is far from the best of times. Nonetheless, there are silver linings amid the dark pall that has hung over the market since last spring.

Some areas set to benefit from transport improvements, some are the focus of multimillion-pound regeneration projects, while others are simply benefiting from a strong ripple of buyers moving from more expensive areas, pushing up prices.

You may not have heard of them all — yet — but if the experts are to be believed, these are the locations that will lead the market in 2017 and beyond.

Southern Gateway, Manchester

Close to Manchester Metropolitan University and the University of Manchester, the Southern Gateway is set to follow the city’s Northern Quarter success story of regeneration and price growth.

The Gateway, to the south of the city centre, has an impressive development pipeline of 7,500 homes to be built in the next few years. Nick Whitten, an associate director in JLL’s residential research department, says that this emerging neighbourhood is not going to be a sea of flats; it already includes the £25 million HOME arts complex, and there are plans for enough shops and restaurants to turn it into a “destination”. With tram and rail links already in place, the Southern Gateway has great connectivity, and Whitten forecasts that prices will grow 7 per cent in 2017 and 28 per cent by 2021. Today you can pick up a one-bedroom flat for £145,000.

Bishopthorpe, York

The redevelopment of the old Terry’s chocolate factory close to York Racecourse into luxury flats, and a smart restaurant and shop, is focusing buyer interest along Bishopthorpe Road.

Ed Stoyle, a partner at Carter Jonas, believes that the development — The Residence — will help to push local prices up 5 per cent this year.

“We’re advising buyers, from first-timers to investors, to act because, once the amenities are in place towards the end of 2017, a premium will be added to asking prices in the area,” he says.

Michael Redmond, the managing director of Redmove estate agency, says that York is set to benefit from the HS2 rail link and agrees that “Bishy Road” will be the focus of growth next year. A two-bedroom terraced house costs about £300,000.

Carmarthenshire

Historically overlooked in favour of neighbouring Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire has appealingly low prices. In Carmarthen town, things have been looking up since the £74 million St Catherine’s Walk shopping centre opened in 2010, and in 2018 electrification of the Great Western Main Line will cut journey times to London Paddington by half an hour.

“It is also within a few minutes’ drive of the glorious coastline, beaches and rolling open countryside,” says Carol Peett, the managing director of West Wales Property Finders. “With excellent schools, a hospital and the University of Wales Trinity St David, S4C television studios, as well as theatres, restaurants, cinemas and shops, Carmarthen town is a vibrant place to live.”

For those looking for a quieter life, Carmarthen has tranquil outlying villages such as Laugharne and Llansteffan. A modest three-bedroom house in Carmarthen or a nearby village costs between £110,000 and £115,000. For £500,000 you can buy a family house with generous outside space.

West Kilburn, north London

Look beyond the resolutely tatty Kilburn High Road, and Kilburn has plenty going for it — period houses, leafy streets and posher areas all around.

Jo Eccles, a buying agent and managing director of Sourcing Property, believes that homes in West Kilburn are particularly good value, at about 20 per cent below those in neighbouring Queen’s Park and Maida Vale. “Four years ago, when we started buying there for clients, that price gap was closer to 40,” she says. “We expect the price gap to completely close over the next three to five years.” Today a two-bedroom flat costs about £550,000.

Woking, Surrey

It’s far from the most posh of commuter towns in Surrey, but the £550 million being thrown at Woking in the form of new homes, town centre upgrades and road improvements will boost its profile. Commuters can be at London Waterloo in less than half an hour. Woking’s average prices — about £375,000 for a two-bedroom flat and £475,000 for a three-bedroom house — are fantastic value compared with the capital.

Sudbury, Suffolk

The impact that buyers leaving London can have on prices in the commuter belt is well known, but Alan Williams, the managing partner of Fenn Wright, is putting his faith in the “double ripple” — buyers moving on from well-known commuter towns, farther out into the sticks. “These movers will compromise on travel if that means they can reside in a town that retains its traditional feel and charm amid beautiful surroundings,” says Williams.

Commuting from Sudbury isn’t horrendous; trains to Liverpool Street take 71 minutes. “Buyers get more house for their money and a lifestyle that many wouldn’t exchange for one of the busy commuter towns,” says Williams. It won’t only be London workers eyeing Sudbury; Bury St Edmunds and Cambridge are within commuting distance.

East Leeds

Rather like east London, the suburbs of east Leeds are finally blossoming, with areas such as Cross Gates, Colton and Rothwell experiencing price growth of 4.2 per cent in 2016. “They are traditionally affordable locations, yet all have good retail offerings within their centres,” says Andrew Hunt, a partner at the Allsop estate agency. He believes that price growth will continue in 2017, thanks to good city centre transport links and development of the nearby Thorpe Park business centre, with its offices, shops and homes. “We would expect in the next year house prices to rise in each of these suburbs by a further 4 to 5 per cent,” says Hunt. The average house price is £182,000 in Rothwell, £186,000 in Cross Gates, and £229,000 in Colton.

Edinburgh city centre

A lack of supply is driving up prices in beautiful Edinburgh, and for this reason Nick Whitten, of JLL, believes that they are likely to grow by 5 per cent in 2017 and by 23 per cent by 2021. Prices start at about £160,000 for a one-bedroom flat. Although there are several significant regeneration schemes on the cards that will deliver necessary new homes in the city, Whitten says that most will not be ready until 2020. “However, the seven-and-a-half-acre New Waverley and 1.7 million square foot Edinburgh St James regeneration schemes are transforming a large area of the city centre,” he adds.

Cambridge

The city has enjoyed extraordinary price growth of 61 per cent in the past five years, but there is still plenty in Cambridge’s tank, according to Martin Walshe, the director of the estate agency Cheffins. He describes the market as “incredibly healthy”, and expects price growth of about 5 per cent next year. “If we have a strong Brexit deal, I forecast a return to the days of price growth at astronomical levels,” he says. “If Europe drives a harder bargain, Cambridge prices will grow, but probably in a more sustainable manner.” All eyes are on the north of the city thanks to Cambridge North station near the Science Park, which is scheduled to open in May.

Garston, Liverpool

Already close to the Jaguar Land Rover factory, Garston will benefit from jobs created by the expansion of Liverpool airport. It has a station, with services to the city centre taking about ten minutes. Stuart Law, the chairman of Assetz Property, expects price rises of 10 per cent over the next three to four years. “A two-bedroom flat costs about £90,000 and Assetz expects that to be £100,000 by the end of 2019,” he says. He expects that three-bedroom homes, which are averaging £150,000, will increase to £170,000 in the same period.

Other areas on the way up

Preston, Lancashire

Electrification of the train line to Manchester by December 2017 will make this junior partner in the Northern Powerhouse a more commuter-friendly option.

North and South Moreton, Oxfordshire

These are two desperately pretty villages three miles from Didcot Parkway station. Electrification of the Great Western train line will reach Didcot by the end of 2017, making the London commute faster.

Tottenham Hale, north London

With 10,000 new homes, 5,000 more on the cards and the possibility of a Crossrail 2 station, this is the London suburb du jour, says Camilla Dell, the managing partner at Black Brick.

Bracknell, Berkshire

This commuter town is getting a shot in the arm in the shape of a £240 million regeneration. The Lexicon shopping and leisure centre opens in September.

Canterbury, Kent

Planning consent has been granted for 4,000 homes in this growing cathedral city. Humberts forecasts that prices could increase by £35,000 a year in the short and medium term.

Old Oak Common, west London

Plans for 25,000 new homes, two new stations and a railway hub make this industrial wasteland the capital’s biggest regeneration project since Stratford. The knock-on benefits should be felt in the surrounding areas of Park Royal, North Acton and Willesden Junction, where pretty railway cottages cost between £500,000 and £600,000.

Southampton waterfront

Work on the £450 million Royal Pier Waterfront development, featuring homes, shops, restaurants, a casino and hotel, will start in 2017.

What to expect in 2017

The biggest talking point in 2017 will be triggering Article 50 to begin the process of Britain’s exit from the EU, and what immediate effect this might have on property prices and the value of sterling. We also predict that as new tax changes start to take hold for private landlords in April 2017 we may start to see some landlords sell their properties, but with a low interest rate set to prevail, any wide-scale sell-off will likely be avoided.

In the final few months of 2017, we will start to see the first completions of the former BBC Television Centre, also known as TVC, where we have acquired seven new apartments for clients. While we wouldn’t always recommend our clients buy new-builds, we have been big advocates of TVC owing to the fact that the development is part of the wider regeneration of the White City area.

It ticks a lot of boxes in terms of what we look for when advising clients. These include proximity to fantastic transport links [Wood Lane and White City tube stations are on the doorstep], Westfield, which is also undergoing a John Lewis expansion and will become one of Europe’s largest shopping centres, and Imperial College is creating a major new campus at White City, including more than 2 million sq ft of new offices and restaurants.

The development itself will also be home to a Soho House hotel and private members’ club, a 20,000 sq ft gym and spa run by Cow Shed, and at some point in 2017 the BBC will resume making television programmes on the site having vacated temporarily to allow the redevelopment to take place. Clients of ours who bought into the scheme in early 2015 have already seen a 10% uplift in the value, and we are encouraged by the fact than unlike a lot of other new-builds, there is so far very little evidence of buyers trying to sell on their contracts before completion. I think a lot of people are buying into a new lifestyle and as such see these investments as a long-term hold.

In terms of other London neighbourhoods to look out for, Tottenham is increasingly popular at the moment as first-time buyers and investors seek value. The area is also very well connected, being on the Victoria line and with a station on Crossrail 2 planned for Tottenham Hale. According to Rightmove, sold prices in Tottenham Hale in 2016 were 14% up on the previous year and 50% up on 2013, when the average house price there was £229,063.

Haringey Council has committed to building 10,000 new homes and providing 5,000 new jobs in the area by 2025, and has secured more than £1 billion of investment. More than 1,100 affordable and private homes plus student accommodation have been built at Hale Village, two new schools are planned, while Tottenham University Technical College opened at the end of 2014.

For design and interior trends, the latest buzz word is ‘wellness’. With so many of today’s buyers of high-end property concerned about their health, creating wellness spaces within homes and new developments will become more important. It’s not just about creating a spa or gym, it’s also about offering the right programmes – yoga retreats, healthy eating plans etc, are all part of this.

https://www.propertyinvestortoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2016/12/camilla-dell–what-to-expect-in-2017

Donald Trump will be US president but there is no sign of panicked exodus to London

There was lots of talk around the US presidential election that if the controversial Republican candidate Donald Trump won, as he did, many horrified Americans would up sticks and leave as soon as possible, with London likely a popular destination.

And if you are so minded, there are plenty of good reasons why, aside from fleeing the Trumpian tyranny: the shared language, a similar culture, London is a vibrant world city with great schools, and the US dollar is unusually strong in relation to sterling due to Brexit. But has in the wake of the election result there been a sudden spike in interest from American buyers looking at London? There’s little evidence to suggest so.

“We haven’t noticed any measurable increase in activity from US buyers,” Brendan Roberts, director at the estate agent Aylesford International, told IBTimes UK. “I think it’s highly unlikely to happen. Trump is president elect and until his policies are clear and understood, I don’t suppose we will see any great reaction in terms of Americans relocating.”

A spokesman for the estate agent Knight Frank there had been “no obvious change at this stage” in interest from US buyers in reaction to the election result. Similarly, a spokeswoman for the buying agent Black Brick said there had been no spike in interest from US buyers after the vote.

But Camilla Dell, managing director of Black Brick, said after the election that the firm is “likely to see some wealthy US citizens, particularly those most offended by Trump, move to the UK as some of our American clients hinted to us prior to this outcome.”

“Whilst we have seen a list of LA pop stars who vowed to leave the US if Trump was elected, to date this has not materialised,” said Alex Newall, managing director, Hanover Private Office, an estate agent. “We have seen a small number of the business elite from around New York making enquires for homes in London – particularly Prime Central London in areas such as Belgravia, Knightsbridge and Mayfair.”

A Trump-driven exodus may happen eventually, but it all depends on how much the reality of his presidency lives up to his deeply divisive campaign rhetoric. “We may not see an immediate move, as President elect Trump’s transitional team start their work, but already the markets have reacted badly,” said Charles Curran, principal at Maskells, a London estate agent, in the hours after Trump’s victory.

“However, our view is that there may be a small knee-jerk reaction to his win, but if Americans are to move to the UK in significant numbers, it will be after he has taken office and established what the relationship will be like between the Republican House and Senate.”

“As Donald Trump doesn’t take office until January, any increase in American buyers will be dispersed over the coming months,” said Nick Davies, head of residential development at Stirling Ackroyd. “However, the chronic shortage of properties in London means that any additional competition to buy or rent homes could push up prices.”

“It is impossible to know how a Trump government might affect the global economy and, in turn, the prime London housing market,” said Jonathan Hewlett, head of Savills London, an estate agent.

There is a more subtle sign of what may come than immediate calls to estate agents. Zoopla, the property listings website, said its web traffic from America on 9 November — the day after the election — was 45.3% higher than the average for the previous 30 days and 25.5% higher than the average for the past six months.

“With the outcome of the US presidential election result now behind us, early indications show that Americans may be looking at setting their sights on the British property market as the election result brings uncertainty for some,” said Lawrence Hall, spokesman for Zoopla.

“Unsurprisingly, London tops the list of the most popular search terms with American home movers over the last six months and several locations in the hotly sought-after Prime Central London market – including Chelsea, Hampstead and Marylebone – are some of the capital’s most searched for residential areas by Americans.”

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What does Trump’s US election victory mean for property?

Donald Trump was elected the President of the United States early this morning, in a surprising victory that saw the property developer and reality TV star beat Hillary Clinton to the White House. With a real estate veteran set to reside in America’s most famous house, what does Trump’s win mean for property in the USA and overseas?

Since the news that Clinton had conceded the race to the White House, the property industry has been weighing in with its reactions – and many believe that Trump’s victory could help make Britain’s real estate appeal great again.

“The US economy remains the force that sets the pace for the rest of the world. Even with the rise of China and the growth of other emerging markets, America is still the strongest economy in the world,” says Jean Liggett, Chief Executive Officer of agency, Properties of the World.

With uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies and what his term in the Oval Office will be like, Liggett, like several property professionals, believes that Trump’s election could drive investors to consider alternative markets, such as London.

“The uncertainty in the US economy that will prevail till the new policies are formalised and laid down could spur increasing amounts of interest from the cross border real estate investors into markets such as Australia, Japan, Europe and India,” predicts Shishir Baijal, Chairman amd Managing Director, Knight Frank India.

“Trump’s victory may well prove beneficial for the UK property market, as investors seek to migrate their portfolios from the US to a more secure and predictable market – the UK,” adds Liggett.

London Central Portfolio also forecasts that “there will be a net positive impact on the market as investors retrench to blue-chip tangible assets”, with gold, the Yen and Swiss Franc forecast to benefit from safe haven demand.

Camilla Dell, Managing Partner at Black Brick, tells TheMoveChannel.com: “Following the victory of Donald Trump in the US election, we will almost certainly see market turmoil and weakening of the dollar. As a result, global investment into Prime Central London (PCL) property is likely to increase from investors who hold the view that Trump is risky for the markets. Indeed, we are already seeing a flight to safe haven assets such as gold this morning and PCL property has always been seen as a safe haven asset in turbulent times.”

Samuel Blake, residential partner at Montagu Evans, also tells The Standard that the UK capital could become a new target destination for “wealthy people who would have considered a move to New York City, in particular from the Middle East, Europe and China”.

The weakness of the pound against the dollar since the UK’s Brexit vote this summer has already prompted speculation that American investors will increasingly snap up the relatively affordable property in London and the UK. Trump’s victory “might level the playing field with the Brexit scenario”, Elisabeth Troni, head of EMEA research at property broker Cushman & Wakefield, told the WSJ.

Nonetheless, Brexit has also demonstrated that market fundamentals are not immediately transformed by wider political changes, as property activity in the UK has begun to show signs of stabilising after an initial slowdown, according to the RICS, and low levels of supply are predicted by JLL to continue underpinning house prices over the next five years.

It may be, therefore, that Trump’s victory does not dent the US property market’s attraction in the long-term. Since the election result, the dollar has weakened against other currencies, giving international buyers more spending power in America’s real estate. Indeed, the greenback’s recent strength was cited by the National Association of Realtors as a factor that caused international investment volumes to dip slightly year-on-year in March 2016.

In the US, 54 per cent of property professionals in a survey by portal Juwai.com said they thought a Trump presidency would increase Chinese investment in American property. Matthew Moore, the site’s President of the Americas, said that Chinese buyers would be “here to stay”, regardless of the election result.

Either way, with Trump not due to be sworn in until January 2017, it will take time for the full impact of Trump’s victory to be seen.

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How Trump’s victory will affect the London property market

While there is a lot of economic doom and gloom over Donald Trump becoming the US President, property experts feel that the Republican’s win will be a boost for the London property market.

According to London Central Portfolio there will be a net positive impact on the market as “investors retrench to blue-chip tangible assets as uncertainty on the political and economic stage is heightened once again”.

It said: “Jitters in global equity markets driven by widespread speculation will be countered by flights to safety, with gold, the Yen and Swiss Franc set to benefit. Whilst the result will likely move the global spotlight away from Brexit, repercussions may be felt across Europe with the prospect of anti-establishment votes becoming keener. At the same time, the likelihood of the UK Parliament thwarting the people’s mandate to exit the EU has dwindled.

“Whilst all of this plays out, Prime Central London property, a traditional safe haven, is expected to benefit from a similar flight to quality, asset-backed investments.”

Camilla Dell, Managing Partner at independent property buying agency, Black Brick, said investment in the London property market is set to increase.

She said: “Following the victory of Donald Trump in the US election, we will almost certainly see market turmoil and weakening of the dollar. As a result, global investment into Prime Central London (PCL) property is likely to increase from investors who hold the view that Trump is risky for the markets. Indeed, we are already seeing a flight to safe haven assets such as gold this morning and PCL property has always been seen as a safe haven asset in turbulent times.

“We are also likely to see some wealthy US citizens, particularly those most offended by Trump, move to the UK as some of our American clients hinted to us prior to this outcome. Foreign buyers, particularly those from the Middle East and of Muslim faith, may enter the London property market, too, as they decide not to buy property in the US due to his remarks about banning Muslims from entering the country.”

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Property magnate becomes the American President: The prime resi industry reacts

o Donald Trump is the new Most Powerful (Elected) Person In The World, and gets the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. He celebrated, oddly, by playing the Rolling Stones’ You Can’t Always Get What You Want and giving a surprisingly civilised speech. The FTSE immediately started to fall, Canada’s immigration website crashed, and the Russian Parliament “erupted into applause”, according to the BBC.

It’s the latest chapter in a let’s say strange year, and means that economic and political uncertainty is likely to be the new normal on both sides of the Atlantic.

Given the reliance of the UK’s luxury property industry on dollar buyers – Hamptons recently found that 6% of buyers in Prime Central London were from the US in Q3 this year, and Fine & Country reports a 23% increase in the number of US website visitors between Brexit and today in comparison to the same period last year – and the global high net worth community, there will inevitably be effects on the prime residential sector. It may mean an end to the “Brexit discount”, which has made British property up to 20% cheaper for buyers with dollars, or it may cause a short-term flood of American’s fleeing to Blighty…

Obviously no-one really knows what may come to pass over the next year or four, but here’s what some key players in the UK’s prime resi industry are thinking…

Global investment into PCL property is likely to increase from investors who hold the view that Trump is risky for the markets

Camilla Dell, Managing Partner at Black Brick

“Following the victory of Donald Trump in the US election, we will almost certainly see market turmoil and weakening of the dollar. As a result, global investment into Prime Central London property is likely to increase from investors who hold the view that Trump is risky for the markets. Indeed, we are already seeing a flight to safe haven assets such as gold this morning and PCL property has always been seen as a safe haven asset in turbulent times.

On balance it should be positive for the UK property industry

James Wyatt, Director at Parthenia

“The forgotten masses have spoken again and triumphed over the wishes of the establishment and Donald Trump has been propelled to the White House. Republicans now control the presidency and both houses, but Donald Trump won without the support of the Republican party.

“Donald Trump is known as an anglophile and unlike President Obama has promised to bring the UK to front of the queue for trade deals. He has also proposed spending on infrastructure, lower simplified taxes and to remove loopholes for the rich and companies. However, his rhetoric on immigration and foreign policy needs careful attention and it will be interesting to see if his position becomes more meted. What does all of this mean for the UK and PCL property? On balance it should be positive, as there may be an influx of dollar denominated buyers and an anglophile president may help the UK economy steer through the choppy waters of Brexit. Nunc dicam.”

We should see more Americans buying in PCL in the coming months

Alex Newall, Managing Director at Hanover Private Office

“Whilst the stock markets are quick to react, the property markets will be a little slower and buyers will place on hold their searches until the dust settles. This pause may bring a few short-term forced sells as loans expires due to failed sales. However, generally in the US prices should hold in the near term.

“Looking abroad, if Trump is to re-write global trade deals to increase US jobs and tax imports, we could see falls in the currencies of weaker economies. Currently with an historically cheap pound, now just might be the time to jump into UK property as borders tighten around the USA. Whilst we have already seen notional signs of USA buyers in the Prime Central London property market in recent weeks, we could see more emerging over the coming fairly soon. From disgruntled LA pop stars to the New York business elite hedging their bets, the west and east coasts who voted for Clinton maybe looking towards London as a good alternative. And why not? There are already many American Community Schools (ACS) here both in London and outside with the likes of ACS Egham near Wentworth and ACS Cobham near St George’s Hill – two American style gated communities.

“US Investment banks in London are numerous in the City and it’s generally a multi-cultural society which welcomes Americans. As ever, it’s just too early to tell what market movements will happen, but we should see more Americans buying in PCL in the coming months. Currently Belgravia is top of the list for one of our USA buyers.”

Central London’s property market is going to look increasingly attractive to those who fear the Trump effect

Louisa Brodie, Head of Search and Acquisitions at Banda Property

“Following this morning’s shock result in the US, London is waiting to assess what Donald Trump’s victory really means. With global stock markets currently in turmoil and the weakening of the US dollar, central London’s property market is going to look increasingly attractive to those who fear the Trump effect.

“We are likely to see US citizens, perhaps most of all those wealthy elite who were most offended by his campaign tactics, move to the UK now that the reality of the voters’ decision is sinking in. After a viciously fought campaign that has not endeared him to many around the world, particularly the Middle Eastern markets, London may now appear a far more attractive option to these buyers who had previously considered buying in the US.

“Banda has already seen an increase in US dollar buyers in central London since the Brexit vote in June and now we are going to see more Americans considering a move to London in the aftermath of today’s result.

“The recent fall in the value of sterling means there are even more attractive options available in the London market for buyers from across the Atlantic. With finance now cheaper than ever, perhaps we should be encouraging our American friends to head to London. West London in particular has been popular for Americans relocating with their families and our culture, legal and transport systems, language and educational facilities have always held an appeal.”

Financial markets might crash and the dollar weaken, effectively strengthening sterling

Gary Hersham, Managing Director and Partner of Beauchamp Estates

“I think it is likely that following the Trump win, the financial markets might crash and the dollar weaken, effectively strengthening sterling.

“It would therefore certainly help with pound based purchases in the US and Miami in particular, where unit prices in dollars per square foot are often below $1000, especially in off plan schemes with superb facilities such as The Missoni building in Edgewater, Miami.”

London will be high on the list for wealthy Americans keen to escape a Trump presidency

Nicholas Finn, Executive Director of Garrington Property Finders

“Prime London property has always appealed to the global elite as a safe haven investment and a political port in a storm. With America experiencing its own Brexit moment, and the weak Pound making UK prices highly attractive to dollar buyers, London will be high on the list for wealthy Americans keen to escape a Trump presidency.

“Chelsea, Kensington, St John’s Wood and Richmond already have sizeable US contingents and are likely to attract many of the newcomers. However it’s worth remembering that many US expats moving to London choose to rent rather than buy, so an American influx is likely to trigger rent rises as much as price rises.”

There will be a net positive impact on the market as investors retrench to blue-chip tangible assets

Naomi Heaton, CEO of London Central Portfolio

“There will be a net positive impact on the market as investors retrench to blue-chip tangible assets as uncertainty on the political and economic stage is heightened once again.

“Jitters in global equity markets driven by widespread speculation will be countered by flights to safety, with gold, the Yen and Swiss Franc set to benefit. Whilst the result will likely move the global spotlight away from Brexit, repercussions may be felt across Europe with the prospect of anti-establishment votes becoming keener. At the same time, the likelihood of the UK Parliament thwarting the people’s mandate to exit the EU has dwindled.

“Whilst all of this plays out, Prime Central London property, a traditional safe haven, is expected to benefit from a similar flight to quality, asset-backed investments.”

Our initial reaction to the US Election result for the UK property market is favourable

Charles Curran, Principal at Maskells

“Our initial reaction to the US Election result for the UK property market is favourable. Sterling has strengthened against the USD by 0.32% this morning which, notwithstanding a potential hike in the US in December, may start reducing some of the post BREXIT inflationary pressure in the UK. This is good for mortgage payers as it reduces the likelihood of the BOE’s hand being forced to increase rates to counter a strong dollar; the currency in which many of imported products are priced.

“Furthermore, this morning we saw that the Canadian immigration website crashed as US citizens sought to acquire Canadian citizenship. This bodes well for the UK, as it is one of the only other fully English speaking countries within financial market time zones and it is really those with country transposable skills (who can work anywhere) who may decide to make the move. London would make more sense than perhaps Australia or New Zealand, the other alternative being Hong Kong where property prices can be much higher than London.

“BREXIT may well have been a block to any moves by US Citizens, but in all likelihood, Parliament will be voting on Article 50 and will temper the hard Brexit line taken by the Government, which increases our chances of staying in the single market (most likely as part of the EEA), which we hope will allow for the continuation of pass porting financial service into the EU and access to the Single Market.

“Whilst we seen Americans buying all over London, there is a preference for St John’s Wood, Kensington and Chelsea due to the American Schools. However we have also seen more Americans put their children into British schools, so our advice would be to buy in an area with low debt levels, to protect their capital from any market volatility as a result of BREXIT.

“We may not see an immediate move, as President Elect Trump’s transitional team start their work, but already the markets have reacted badly. However, our view is that there may be a small knee-jerk reaction to his win, but if Americans are to move to the UK in significant numbers, it will be after he has taken office and established what the relationship will be like between the Republican House and Senate.”

The trend of Americans looking to swap the US for the UK has been building

Martin Bikhit, Director at Kay & Co

“With no language barrier, London and the wider UK is hotly tipped to be a location of choice for those leaving Trump’s domain. There would be no real culture shock and, despite the UK’s vote to leave the European Union, those Democrats leaving the US may find living under the remit of new left-wing Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, more politically palatable. The world also perceives Teresa May, the longest serving Home Secretary for 50 years, and the new Prime Minister, as a safer pair of hands than the celebrity-cum-political Donald Trump.

“The trend of Americans looking to swap the US for the UK has been building as the combined factors of the US election and the weak sterling make such a global and unique city as London very attractive.”

Donald Trump’s win makes the potential effects of Brexit look like a garden party

Tim Macpherson, Head of Residential for Carter Jonas London

“As the world takes stock of Donald Trump’s election to President, we expect to see a movement of affluent Americans from major cities across the US into Prime Central London. The pound remains attractive to dollar based buyers in the wake of Brexit, who still see relative market stability in London, and as a result, view it as a place to invest their money in property. Keen to shelter from any ensuing political and economic upset, a number of buyers registered with us in advance during the presidential campaign, with a view to progressing their purchase following a Trump victory. Now that has happened, it is likely that a number of them will follow-up on their initial interest.

“We anticipate a potential power shift between New York and London, with a new wave of professionals,originating from Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia and even Tokyo, as well as investors from the Middle East, now looking to do business in alternative locations to the US.

“Although Donald Trump’s win signifies an unprecedented change in the political landscape that makes the potential effects of Brexit look like a garden party, London’s prime market is set to benefit – such is the attraction of our capital city and its place in the global economy. However, rather than relying on American based buyers for an improvement in the London market, perhaps our more immediate aspiration should focus around an SDLT reduction in the Autumn Statement.”

The surprise of last night’s result will be likely to be replaced by a more considered view of the implications of the new presidency

Liam Bailey, Global Head of Research at Knight Frank

“There may be a period of instability in currency markets, which will influence some short-term decision making around asset allocation.

“However, rather like the Brexit vote in the UK the surprise of last night’s result will be likely to be replaced by a more considered view of the implications of the new presidency.

“It is important to remember that almost alone of all developed economies the US has largely shaken off the impact of the global financial crisis and has led the way to improved economic growth.

“The business environment in the US and innovation in business services and technology providers based in the US have helped to drive property market demand globally – it is an incredibly strong platform to build from.”

The domestic property market particularly outside of Prime London won’t be affected

Ian Westerling, Managing Director of Humberts

“The Trump win will cause short term stock exchange fluctuations affecting buying decisions at the top end however we predict that it’ll be business as usual in the UK over the coming weeks. The domestic property market particularly outside of prime London won’t be affected – we’ve already seen our sales increase by around 5% on the same time last year and we expect that continue as we head to the end of 2016.”

Our fear is that the value of the dollar will fall… hence London will lose its attraction to overseas buyers

Matthew Kaye, Partner at Kaye & Carey

“Our fear is of course that the value of the dollar will fall to such an extent that it wipes out the advantage any dollar based economy has been enjoying against the pound – hence London will lose its attraction to overseas buyers as place to invest.

“One possible upside might be that high net worth American citizens decide to flee the US and settle here instead.”

This result could sway buyers to favour a London purchase instead

Simon Tollit, Central London sales director at United Kingdom Sotheby’s International Realty

“We have definitely seen an increase in US purchasers looking to buy in and around Prime Central London over the last six months. Whilst the impending election was causing concern for some, it is more likely this was being driven by the weak pound rather than the election results. It is possible this interest from US purchasers may wane as we have already seen the pound make strong gains against the dollar following the vote, with these currency shifts in mind we expect other foreign buyers to look to the London property market as a consistently safe investment. Investors do not like to buy in uncertain markets and a win for Trump means a change of party, meaning changes in policy are far more likely with a Clinton defeat. New York and London are historically rival property markets, meaning this result could sway buyers to favour a London purchase instead.”

Trump’s victory may well prove beneficial for the UK property market

Jean Liggett, CEO of UK-based Properties of the World

“Donald Trump’s US presidential election victory raises concerns over the impact of this outcome for global economies, including that of the UK. Today’s Trump victory is likely to cause market trepidation around the world. Many companies and investors may look to move their investments and companies, at least in part, out of the US to safer havens.

“Trump’s election could generate a significant movement in the US dollar and potentially jeopardise US diplomatic relations across the world.

“However, Trump’s victory may well prove beneficial for the UK property market, as investors seek to migrate their portfolios from the US to a more secure and predictable market – the UK. This may even mean that the sterling could rise in value. Under Trump’s stewardship, ‘predictable’ may need to be removed from the US English dictionary for the next four years. Only time will tell how the US property market – and others around the world – respond to his election victory.”

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The forecast for the prime London market? That depends on which part…

Forecast season may be upon us, but headline figures are of little use in the micro-markets of prime London, says Camilla Dell…

As we approach the year end, the UK’s leading agents and property analysts have the tough job of predicting the outlook of the property market. This year, their job is tougher than ever as the UK market faces extreme uncertainty as a consequence of the Brexit vote. Not only will the terms of the UK’s relationship with the EU have a profound effect on the country’s overall economic performance over the next few years, but the treatment of the financial sector will bear particularly on the London property market.

The collective response to this uncertainty is expected to be inaction, with both JLL and Savills predicting no growth for Prime Central London (PCL) in 2017. This is followed by a growth of 15.2% and 20.8% respectively over five years to 2021. Although we largely agree, we caution the usefulness of a single number for such a heterogeneous market as prime London. As we have seen in the past, just as some geographic areas have performed better than others; some parts of the market are likely to outperform the average.

For example, we expect the lower end, below £1 million, to remain active and resilient, supported by government programmes, such as Right to Buy. Furthermore, the current stamp duty regime continues to make properties at this end of the market relatively attractive to investors. This implies that outer prime locations are likely to do better than a more traditional – and more expensive – PCL.

There will also be outliers at the higher end of the market; we’re seeing stock dry up as vendors refuse to countenance the discounts needed to close deals. This can have effects in both directions; those sellers which come to the market are likely to be highly motivated to sell, and open to offers, while limited supply can see buyers pay up for high quality properties.

For the opposite reason, we remain very cautious on the new-build segment, which we think is still the most vulnerable part of the market. Some parts of London are flooded with supply and we’re likely to see properties offered with substantial discounts.

Of course, there is a near-term wildcard, in the Chancellor of the Exchequer’s Autumn Statement, due on 23 November. Budgets under George Osborne delivered raid after raid on the property market and we don’t know what – if anything – Philip Hammond has up his sleeve.

Agents braced for months of Brexit uncertainty and confusion

The property market is bracing itself for, at best, uncertainty and confusion, and at worst a white knuckle ride after yesterday’s High Court ruling that MPs must vote on triggering Article 50.

Yesterday, as the BBC reported on the possibility of a constitutional crisis, the pound rose in value while speculation grew that Theresa May will call a snap general election.

Ladbrokes slashed its odds on a general election next year to 2/1.

Spicerhaart boss Paul Smith told EYE: “Yesterday’s government defeat by the High Court regarding whether the UK can start the process of leaving the EU is unwelcome news for the residential property market.

“This decision will elongate the process of Britain leaving the European Union reigniting cause for a lack of confidence among buyers, sellers and house-builders.

“It cannot be emphasised enough how much the residential property market is reliant on confidence, and as we currently see a market that is suffering from almost record low transactions levels, especially in the capital, it is now more important than ever that clarity is provided.

“What we need to see is a quick, clean break from the EU, rather than dragging out the process which yesterday’s ruling may now do. Britons have voted to be free of the EU, and their wishes should be respected with a clear exit strategy.

“Our property market has in the past proved robust, and bounced back in terms of adversity. However guarantees of future stability would certainly not go amiss.”

Smith also warned MPs not to abuse their votes. He said: “The people have decided on Brexit and Parliament should not stand in the way of the will of the people. Brexit means Brexit.”

Another industry figure warned that agents will “see the price of Brexit in their bottom lines”.

Property pundit and buying agent Henry Pryor yesterday told EYE: “Markets hate uncertainty so this will result in more people putting their moves on hold whilst they await clarity – something that is unlikely to come in the short term.

“Turnover and prices are sure to come under pressure, but the good news for agents is that more people will want advice rather than just process which should mean more pitches. Key to converting this into income will be to provide reassurance.

“Most home movers are trading so absolute prices are not essential if what they want to buy is cheaper. The best agents will inspire confidence and clients will respect and pay for this.

“Longer term I expect that we are all going to see the price of Brexit in our bottom line figures.

“Deals will be harder to do, harder to hold together and harder to get paid for.

“Service rather than process will count, I expect, as consumers come to appreciate that selling or letting, buying or renting, isn’t just a case of sticking something up online and processing the resulting interest.

“Whether you voted remain or leave, you are about to witness one of the more memorable episodes in the housing market and some will not cope well.

“There will be arguments, sharp practice, ill-mannered discourse, but the best firms will win out because they deliver something that the public wants and will pay for.”

More upbeat was Glynis Frew, managing director of Hunters Property Group, who said: “This decision could bring further uncertainty to the country, and a period of stability would be welcomed by the business world. However, at the end of the day the property market is essentially driven by lifestyle factors: people will continue to get married, relocate for new jobs and start families, whether Brexit goes ahead or not.

“These lifestyle changes bring with them a need to move house and therefore create churn in the market. In addition , yesterday’s announcement to hold interest rates steady is welcome news for the property sector. ”

Camilla Dell, of London buying agency Black Bricks, said: “Yesterday’s outcome will likely delay the triggering of Article 50, thus creating an even longer period of uncertainty, which isn’t helpful for sellers or buyers.

“However, the fact that Parliament needs to vote, may also mean a less harsh Brexit takes place in order to get the vote through.

“In the long run, I don’t believe it means we aren’t leaving the EU. We will be leaving, but perhaps not as quickly or as aggressively as the prime minister had hoped.”

Stephanie McMahon, head of research at Strutt & Parker, said: “We didn’t know when Article 50 would be triggered before, and after yesterday’s court case we still don’t know.

“On a positive note, it is good news that formal exit negotiations with the EU will be properly debated, as they should be.

“On the other hand, a further hearing is expected later this month and because the ruling is likely to go back to appeal, we can’t really comment on the potential impact at the moment. Our forecast for UK house price growth in 2016 is 5%, and we are predicting the same 5% for 2017.”

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Sub £1m market to remain resilient

Camilla Dell, Managing Director of Black Brick, believes that as we approach the year end, the UK’s leading agents and property analysts have the tough job of predicting the outlook of the property market.

Camilla said: “This year, their job is tougher than ever as the UK market faces extreme uncertainty as a consequence of the Brexit vote. Not only will the terms of the UK’s relationship with the EU have a profound effect on the country’s overall economic performance over the next few years, but the treatment of the financial sector will bear particularly on the London property market.

View the article online here

Black Brick’s Camilla Dell: Newbuild property in central London faces substantial price cuts

Areas of the central London property market are “flooded” with overpriced newbuild homes that will have to be offered at “substantial discounts” to sell, according to a buying agent in the city.

Camilla Dell, managing director of the buying agent Black Brick, said in a market commentary her firm is “very cautious on the newbuild segment, which we think is still the most vulnerable part of the market. Some parts of London are flooded with supply and we’re likely to see properties offered with substantial discounts.”

The sharp house price rises in central London sparked a wave of development, many of which are “luxury” flats with bumper price tags.

But since the end of 2014 there have been a number of tax hikes on property investors and expensive homes, including higher stamp duty, denting the market and sparking asking price cuts in the newbuild sector in particular.

However, Dell said she expects the sub-£1m sector of the London market “to remain active and resilient” because it has not been subject to the same tax rises as higher up, meaning those properties are still “relatively attractive to investors”. Domestic buyers are also supported by government schemes such as Help to Buy.

“This implies that outer prime locations are likely to do better than a more traditional – and more expensive – PCL [prime central London],” Dell said.

“There will also be outliers at the higher end of the market; we’re seeing stock dry up as vendors refuse to countenance the discounts needed to close deals. This can have effects in both directions; those sellers which come to the market are likely to be highly motivated to sell, and open to offers, while limited supply can see buyers pay up for high-quality properties.”

View the article online here