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Taking stock of the UK’s red-hot property market

Despite global macroeconomic uncertainty dominating headlines in 2022, UK house prices continue to defy gravity. Rightmove, the online property portal, says homes today are selling faster than ever before and this “frenzy” is driving property prices to record highs1.

On the face of it, concerns around interest rates, the economy, and the war in Ukraine would normally be enough to put the brakes on a runaway housing market.

Yet, as the last two years have shown, we live in far-from-normal times. And the UK prime housing market seems no different.

As Stephen Moroukian, Product and Proposition Director at Barclays Private Bank explains, the pace of change in the market has been staggering: “Ironically, back in May 2020, there were dire warnings from the Bank of England that UK property prices could fall 16%2. However, the pandemic certainly stimulated the housing market and it’s continued to defy expectations, with many prime markets recording double-digit price growth across 2021.”

The impact of COVID-19 and home working had sent many city-based buyers into a pandemic-fuelled “race for space”, and a longing for luscious coastal and country pads. Yet urban living has seemingly since recovered much of its allure with people returning to the bright lights of the city, as well as their offices – albeit at a reduced frequency.

“We’re definitely seeing a pick-up in central London living – in both the sales and rental markets,” says Camilla Dell, Founder of central London buying agency Black Brick.

Dell also says that around half of all her sales are now “off-market”, properties not listed by estate agents. “In my 20-year career, I’ve never seen a market like this in central London, which is so chronically short on supply,” she adds.

 

‘Race for space’ continues to fuel demand for prime regional property

Price points today continue to reflect the tectonic shifts we’ve seen in the UK property market over the last two years. The market for high-end prime regional property remains strong; Savills is currently seeing 9% annual price growth although it notes interestingly that “proximity to London is starting to influence performance once again” – with high-value markets such as Rickmansworth, Sunningdale, Reigate, Esher, and Weybridge in much demand3. So too the country house market, with 10.3% annual price growth for £2m-plus residences3. It’s a similar story for regional cities – with prime areas in places such as Bristol, Glasgow, York, and Winchester all now “outperforming their surrounding areas”, according to Savills3.

“Ever since the housing market reopened in June 2020, the pace of buying activity – especially at the top end of the market – has been exceptionally strong, and any stock that comes on to the market is sold very quickly,” says Lucian Cook, Head of Residential Research at Savills.

“Also, this ‘race for space’ hasn’t fully played out yet, especially with depleted stock levels and the latent demand in all prime areas.

“But I do think the next phase of the housing market cycle will be linked to the reality of the commute. During COVID-19, the commuter zone expanded out as far Monmouthshire in the west, to Yorkshire and Humber to the north.

“People will start looking to live more towards London and the traditional commuter zones within an hour by train to the capital – focusing on the ease and length of the commute.”

 

Prime London bounces back as COVID-19 recovery continues

London itself has been something of an outlier during the pandemic.

While larger family homes with gardens in its leafier suburbs have continued to perform well through COVID times – areas like St John’s Wood, Hampstead, Primrose Hill, Richmond, Wimbledon, and Dulwich.

It’s been a different story for prime central London – an area stretching from Chelsea to Camden, and Notting Hill to Westminster – where apartments tend to predominate in the traditional golden postcodes.

Average prices in prime central London are now 16% lower than they were at the start of 2016, according to Knight Frank, but there are signs of a revival – with prices up 2.1% in the last 12 months alone4.

 

Foreign buyers return – but not yet in large numbers

The much-heralded return of international buyers hasn’t quite yet materialised in the way some commentators thought it would do. Heathrow Airport passenger numbers, a key yardstick of overseas visitors to the UK, are still a fifth down on pre-pandemic levels5.

And it’s these wealthy foreign buyers that usually favour the turnkey properties of prime central London – typically in the exclusive neighbourhoods of Belgravia, Knightsbridge, and Kensington.

“Summer is going to be an interesting test for London,” says Cook at Savills. “But London does seem well primed for recovery, given that it’s already started before the full weight of international money has flowed back into the market.”

And Dell at Black Brick believes these overseas buyers, once they do return in greater numbers, will encounter a very different marketplace than what they’ve faced previously.

“Buyers will have to be more flexible when it comes to finding the property they want,” she says. “Because of this lack of supply, more buyers are going to have to consider properties that require work. It’s going to make things more complex, as you’ll need to do your sums before putting in an offer, as well as checking planning consents.”

The other more-recent change is that all overseas owners of UK property must also now register details of beneficial ownership to a public register, as a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out, as a certain group of buyers like to protect their anonymity,” adds Cook at Savills.

 

Signs the UK property market may be normalising

There are, however, some suggestions that the red-hot housing market may be beginning to normalise – putting an end to the wild supply and demand imbalances of the last two years.

“The UK property market has defied gravity over the course of the pandemic,” says Tom Bill, Head of UK Residential Research at Knight Frank.

“Tight supply, low interest rates, accumulated household wealth and a desire for more space and greenery have conspired to produce double-digit house price growth over the last year. But we believe 2022 is when this begins to unwind, and growth returns to single digits.

“Crucially, we believe supply will continue to increase as the distortive effects of the pandemic fade. The supply shortage has been the single biggest cause of strong house price growth over the last two years, but there are early signs now that stock levels are building.”

There are, however, some suggestions that the red-hot housing market may be beginning to normalise – putting an end to the wild supply and demand imbalances of the last two years.

“The UK property market has defied gravity over the course of the pandemic,” says Tom Bill, Head of UK Residential Research at Knight Frank.

“Tight supply, low interest rates, accumulated household wealth and a desire for more space and greenery have conspired to produce double-digit house price growth over the last year. But we believe 2022 is when this begins to unwind, and growth returns to single digits.

“Crucially, we believe supply will continue to increase as the distortive effects of the pandemic fade. The supply shortage has been the single biggest cause of strong house price growth over the last two years, but there are early signs now that stock levels are building.”

Of course, history does not predict the future. But the quite phenomenal market conditions of these past two years may be beginning to ease. And while prime central London is finding its feet once again as activity picks up, other markets are showing early signs of cooling – as the “race for space” subsides, and interest rates rise.

 

Why 2022 is the year to buy a central London flat — while the overseas buyers are away

By Melissa York and Emanuele Midolo.

First-time buyers and families are finally getting the chance to secure a prime postcode in the capital

I actually almost moved to Canary Wharf about six years ago, but I felt, at the time, that the neighbourhood was still not quite there yet and was too quiet at the weekends. Now it’s buzzing,” says Dan Bull, a 33-year-old entrepreneur who recently moved into a two-bedroom flat in the east London neighbourhood.

The property market in the high-rise financial district was once the preserve of City workers and overseas investors. Today, though, international buyers — deterred by coronavirus restrictions, and political and economic upheaval in the wake of the Ukraine war — and City workers, who have shifted to WFH, have been replaced by British first-time buyers and families. It is a shift that is reshaping neighbourhoods across the capital, with the share of homes sold to overseas purchasers in Greater London at an eight-year low, according to Hamptons estate agency.

“First-time buyers are the predominant group of buyers now,” says Joseph Bate, sales manager at Johns & Co, an estate agency in Canary Wharf. “The reason for that is because their rents have been pushed up massively and they realise they would spend less on a mortgage.”

Until recently, Bate’s business catered to investors from Hong Kong and mainland China. Now, however, the market has shifted to domestic buyers. The sweet spot is “anything up to £600,000” — which will buy you “an amazing top floor studio” or “a one-bedroom” flat in a new-build development. In older blocks you can get “a decent two-bedroom flat” for the same price.

“There is a misconception about Canary Wharf that the only people who live here work in the area and that it’s dead over the weekend,” Bate says. “But there are a lot of people who live here because they like it. They want to be safe, in a clean, nice new development, next to the river.”

Bull, who has bought a two-bedroom flat in the Wardian development (two skyscrapers built by EcoWorld Ballymore), agrees: “I think there’s something exciting about living somewhere where there’s a lot of change happening very fast . . . I think Covid also fast-tracked diversification and saw a shift away from it being seen as just a finance hub. We have musicians, actors, ecommerce entrepreneurs, lawyers and health professionals, with the odd banker thrown in for good measure. It’s also refreshing to see that although there are a lot of young professionals, we also have some families, retirees and characters of the world.”

Bull, who is the managing director of the Espresso Room and Lockdown Room, a coffee bar and event space respectively, says that “after a long time renting and moving around” he finally feels “lucky” to have bought this flat and made it his first “real home.”

Property prices rose just 0.4 per cent last year in Canary Wharf, data from the estate agency Foxtons shows. As a consequence, UK first-time buyers who previously rented in southwest London have been moving east, according to Liza-Jane Kelly, director of Savills’ prime London market sales team. House prices across London rose by an average of 8.1 per cent in the 12 months to February, compared to a UK average of 10.9 per cent.

“Flats are where bargains can be found,” says Roarie Scarisbrick, a partner at the buying agency Property Vision. “Some areas such as Mayfair, Knightsbridge and Belgravia are looking relatively good value. There are loads of flats there.”

The property portals are littered with reduced-price flats in these prime central London neighbourhoods, areas once popular with foreign buyers and international students: a one-bedroom flat in a period mansion block in Mayfair reduced by £75,000 to £850,000; a two-bedroom period flat in Knightsbridge down £55,000 to £725,000 or £50,000 off a £1.2 million one-bedroom flat on swanky Sloane Street in Knightsbridge.

Flat prices are subdued because of a lack of competition from international buyers, the post-Covid desire for outside space and, in some buildings, the ongoing cladding scandal. In prime buy-to-let spots like Canary Wharf and traditional prime central London neighbourhoods it is the dearth of international buyers which is hitting hardest, despite agents reporting that City workers, who moved out to the country during the pandemic, are returning to buy pieds-à-terre.

Last year agents predicted that international buyers would return in 2022 but that was before another wave of lockdowns in Asia and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “For various reasons it’s been more a trickle than a wave,” says Scarisbrick. “The international parts of the market are definitely not firing all cylinders.”

Knight Frank doesn’t expect international purchases to return to pre-pandemic levels in central London until next year. “That is later than we previously anticipated and reflects how there is unlikely to be a single moment when overseas demand normalises,” says Tom Bill, head of Knight Frank’s UK residential research. “Instead the process will be more gradual and erratic as different countries deal with Covid in different ways.” When overseas buyers do return, Bill predicts property prices in central London could increase by 6 per cent.

Typically, home buyers from countries like China, Malaysia and Singapore have preferred high-rise new-builds. As those nationalities were (and mostly still are) not allowed to travel, hotspots where the skyline is filled with residential towers — prime buy-to-let postcodes for Asian investors — are sluggish. In Nine Elms, Vauxhall, Borough and Kennington, all in south London, property values fell 1.5 per cent last year, according to LonRes, a property data company.

Middle Eastern buyers are staying away too, buying 7 per cent of properties sold in central London last year — that’s down from 11 per cent in 2019, according to Hamptons. “I think we will see a lot of Middle Eastern buyers coming back after Ramadan,” says Camilla Dell, founder of buying agency Black Brick, “Maybe there is hesitation. What could be putting them off? Boris Johnson! There is potential for political turbulence looming . . .”

Mark Pollack, co-founder of the London estate agency Aston Chase, adds that the Middle East is “probably more closely aligned to Russia” than the west. “The suggestion is that there is a little bit of concern, a bit of fear that, in the same way the UK government has changed towards Russia overnight, things could change very quickly towards them as well.”

The only overseas buyers snapping up London properties with gusto are Americans. The main reason for this, other than the opening of US-UK borders, is the strength of the US dollar. Analysis from property consultancy JLL shows that currency fluctuations mean that while sterling buyers are paying 76 per cent more for a new-build home than they did 10 years ago, euro buyers are paying 75 per cent more and US dollar buyers 53 per cent more.

However, American buyers look for properties that are “quintessentially” British. “They want something out of a period drama,” Scarisbrick says. “High ceilings, good proportions, the sort that we get in old-fashioned properties. They’re buying big country houses — if they can find them.”

Fierce competition and an acute supply shortage in the countryside mean many are turning their attention to leafy London suburbs. Data from LonRes shows that St John’s Wood, Regents Park and Primrose Hill have experienced strong price growth over the past two years — an 18.7 per cent increase in the past year after 11.7 per cent the previous year.

As for the 100,000 Hongkongers taking advantage of the British National (Overseas) visa, many of them have abandoned central London for better value for money in the suburbs and home counties.

“Buyers from Hong Kong are moving from an apartment culture with large lateral living spaces and are now having to realign this expectation with the housing stock of Elmbridge and the home counties, which is predominantly made up of townhouses,” says Tim Firth, director of estate agency Jackson-Stops’ branch in Weybridge, Surrey.

In the meantime, flats in London neighbourhoods once popular with foreign buyers are up for grabs but, say the experts, for a limited time only.

Battersea Power Station

Buying agency bags ‘best-in-class’ Battersea Power Station apartment for £5.35mn

Black Brick’s buyer was originally in the market for a £5mn house in Knightsbridge and Chelsea, but set their sights on a duplex in the historic power station…

APCL agency has reported a noteworthy acquisition at the Battersea Power Station scheme in south west London.

The buyer was originally in the market for a £5mn house in Knightsbridge and Chelsea, but after viewing a number of options decided to stay south of the river – and opt for an apartment instead.

The £9bn Battersea Power Station project was of particular interest, said the firm, but the client was after “a real ‘best in class’ and that meant one of the 250 flats in the power station building itself”.

Only one of the remaining options fitted the bill, explained the team: “Through detailed analysis we established that that only six of these homes had views of the River Thames through every window. Four had been sold. On inspection we found that one of the remaining apartments was vastly superior: a stunning three bedroom duplex measuring 2,390 sq ft.

A new batch of units in Switch House East, designed by Michaelis Boyd, were unveiled in January

When fully complete, there will be well over 4,000 new apartments on the Battersea site, including the apartment blocks by Frank Gehry and Norman Foster, flanking the power station which will be finished this year.

The grand turbine halls will finally open to the public this summer, filled with around 100 new shops and restaurants plus a cinema, hotel, and events space seating up to 1,400 people.

Talking Heads: What’s happening in the prime property market right now, according to top buying agents

Where is all the stock; what will happen to prices; and which areas are buyers flocking to right now? Seasoned buy-side pros have been giving their hot takes on the first few months of 2022, which is shaping up to be another crazy one…

We’ve heard a lot about the severe and continuing shortage of homes available to buy across the UK property market, and the situation seems even more stark at the top end.

“The finest homes are as rare as unicorns,” say Richard & Sophie Rogerson of RFR, “and invariably trade competitively and without ever coming to the open market.”

“There is a perpetual lack of supply,” adds Charlie Wells of Prime Purchase, noting that “this imbalance in the prime markets looks set to continue to support prices, while hesitant buyers risk missing out.”

Adding to the market’s hectic pace, international buyers are back on the scene in both town and country. London-based Eccord, for example, has enjoyed a 40% increase in enquiries from overseas buyers in the last month.

Some international buyers appear to be paying over the odds for English country houses, suggests Charlie Ellingworth of Property Vision, while a broader range of central London properties are in demand as city life resumes. Black Brick’s Camilla Dell has noticed “a bit of a shift from people wanting a townhouse in Belgravia or Mayfair,” towards more community-centred Chelsea.

Chelsea has got ‘much, much nicer’ over the last few years, says Black Brick, and is being favoured by many buyers over Belgravia and Mayfair

“Houses and apartments without decent outside space were almost unsaleable” in the immediate aftermath of Covid-19 lockdowns, says Edward Towers of Aykroyd & Co. Now, however, “best in class properties in general are back in demand, even where they lack outside space.” Towers believes this “is due to there being more pied-a-terre and overseas investment buyers re-entering the market, after a lull over the past year or two.”

Ellingworth adds a note of caution, echoing Knight Frank’s latest forecasts that anticipate a slowing market. “There is a queue of buyers who are burning hot – for now – but may not be next year or the year after,” he warns. “This thought is percolating through and sellers are beginning to consider that this may be the moment to get the premium that may not be there once the post-pandemic backlog has eased and the fallout from the Ukrainian crisis is known. If that is right, this year will be busy.”

Best-in-class properties are back in demand, even those without outside space

Edward Towers, Aykroyd & Co: “The overall Prime Central London market has continued in much the same vein as in the run up to Christmas.

“That is to say for best-in-class houses and apartments demand is vastly outstripping supply resulting in best bids being more common.

“As ever, the majority of properties we find for our clients never hit the open market given the intensity of buyers and lack of sellers. This is why we welcome clients engaging with us early, so we have time to fully educate them on the London property market ensuring they are poised and fully committed when we source their preferred property. This ensures they are in the best position to achieve the right outcome.

“Whereas post-pandemic, houses and apartments without decent outside space were almost unsaleable given UK ‘needs based’ buyers’ recent lockdown experiences, we are pleased to report that best-in-class properties in general are back in demand, even where they lack outside space. We believe this is due to there being more pied-a-terre and overseas investment buyers re-entering the market, after a lull over the past year or two.

“Perhaps unsurprisingly after several years out of the limelight, due to distractions such as Brexit, Corbyn and other factors such as recent stock market turmoil and world events have refocused London’s status as the premier haven for international investors, on top of an already strong domestic market.

“We have seen our busiest ever month for enquiries. We recognise and appreciate, particularly with current global affairs, that security is more important to buyers than potential interest rate rises.”

The Great Catch Up

Charlie Ellingworth, Property Vision: “Almost every seller is a buyer. This pretty well sums up the dynamic of the current market where supply, or lack of it, is the cri de coeur of every buyer. It may be great to get a record price for your house, but if you can’t find anything to replace it, even at half the price, then you tend to stay where you are.

“But if that is the case, then why are nearly all estate agents reporting a record year? They live on high turnover, not high prices, so if the desert is really so dry, they should be moaning, not rejoicing. The reason it has been a happy time for them is the Great Catch Up, that has happened after a year of lockdowns, covering all property – the good, the bad and the indifferent. It is when they sell lots of the bad and indifferent – those with a view of pylons, the smell of a nearby farmyard, the restaurant below or the noise of a motorway – that they make their money. It is in the rarified air of the good that the problem lies – as indeed it always does – where there are lots of ticks that have to match lots of boxes and where the need to compromise is somewhat alleviated by lots of money.

“It is also very concentrated. In London it is communal gardens in Holland Park/Notting Hill where there is always competition, as there is for large lateral flats with an outside space. In the country, outside the obvious commuting areas, the really hot demand is in North Oxfordshire (Jeremy Clarksonshire) and the Cotswolds, the Wiltshire chalk valleys, the West Sussex Downs and in Somerset around Bruton. In all these areas there is a limited supply and a huge demand: we estimate this (and this is finger in the air not a scientific fact) to be about three times more than in the pre- Covid era. This has obviously shown through in prices but also in the value of extra land. This is the premium paid for a house with say 200 acres of land that values the land at multiples of its agricultural price – the whole being worth way more than the sum of the parts. The valuation of this for a bank loan is clearly going to be a problem – which illustrates well that this is a market for cash buyers where personal fulfilment trumps demonstrable economic value.

“Bank valuations are an issue in such a thin and rarified market as they are, by definition, backward looking. Valuations also assume that buyers are familiar with the market and comparing what they are buying with a house nearby. For example, there were four houses in the Cotswolds that sold last year to Americans, as near as sight-unseen, for what were punchy prices. They were probably comparing the price with an equivalent house in Florida, the Côte d’Azur or Tuscany, against which they may have seemed cheap. Looking at recent local price history they appear high – but against the London equivalent they also would appear good value. Who is right on this? In a genuinely international market it’s a difficult call.

“There were plenty of people calling time on the London market last year. With working from home, who’d choose to live in the capital? It turns out that all the things that people like about cities – restaurants, theatres, clubs and galleries – have probably even more appeal after a year of abstinence. The market has been busy even without a good proportion of traditional overseas buyers, particularly those still locked down all over Asia. Even without them, there is demand for certain types of property: a large lateral flat with air conditioning is always appealing to a certain type of international buyer who would never buy anything else.

“Their value is underpinned in that they won’t be making any more of them: Westminster has introduced size restrictions for any new buildings in their area – 1,615 square feet – and Kensington and Chelsea have said that they will follow suit. This is the size of a generous two- bedroom flat and a lot smaller than any family house. This constriction of supply won’t have a major influence on prices until all the schemes that are currently under construction are completed and sold – but this is a major sea-change in a city that has been, for the last thirty years, pretty laissez faire about letting the market do what it does.

“It would be a mistake to assume that the whole property market is a seller’s market. There are plenty of places where the buyer is in the driving seat – often dictated by fashion. A good house in Leicestershire or Rutland will cost you half the equivalent in Gloucestershire or Hampshire despite better rail connections and not dissimilar countryside. Mobile phone and internet black spots will stymie even the loveliest of positions. If you are looking for a tall thin house in London with no garden, the price you pay per square foot will be about half the communal garden equivalent. There are plenty of dark flats, in clapped out buildings, on busy roads that are barely worth more now than they were in 2014 – the high-water mark for the London market before the Osborne stamp duty axe was wielded.

“Going back to the lack of supply, what unlocks the top end of the market if sellers can’t buy what they want? There is, we sense, a slight change in sellers’ perceptions. Against a darkening economic background of already high inflation and almost certain rising interest rates, there is a queue of buyers who are burning hot – for now – but may not be next year or the year after. This thought is percolating through and sellers are beginning to consider that this may be the moment to get the premium that may not be there once the post-pandemic backlog has eased and the fallout from the Ukrainian crisis is known. If that is right, this year will be busy.”

Short supply for high-end buyers

Jo Eccles, Eccord: “The market remains extremely challenging for buyers seeking large family homes in prime central London locations such as Chelsea, Notting Hill and St Johns Wood, particularly in the £5m – £15m price bracket.

“Approximately 80% of our clients are domestic needs-driven buyers, but we are also seeing the return of discretionary and international buyers. In the last month we have had a 40% increase in enquiries from international buyers, mainly from the US and Europe, as well as a number of expats relocating back from Singapore and Hong Kong.

“Outside space is less important to them but a porter or concierge is. In the £5m – £10m price range, buyers are cost conscious and sensitive to service charge levels, whereas our £10m+ buyers are keen to have hotel grade amenities and are willing to pay for them.”

US and Canadian buyers leading the international charge

Richard & Sophie Rogerson, RFR: “Whilst Omicron delayed the start of 2022 and global equity markets reacted to any manner of shocks, demand for prime properties in London seems so far unabated. According to Knight Frank, demand remains 70% above the five-year average. We have certainly seen our busiest Q1 for some time and that follows two extraordinary years of demand for our services.

“Demand represents a mix of domestic and international buyers, with the former now driven as much by the global M&A boom as pandemic proofing, whilst US and Canadian buyers are returning in force and leading the international charge. We are of course sector agnostic, but London is, anecdotally, seeing a surge in tech and life science entrepreneurs. Whilst the financial City remains subdued and adjusts to changing commuter patterns, London itself has seen a resurgence since lockdown measures were lifted.

“…In contrast, stock levels remain exceptionally low, especially for best-in-class properties and for well executed ‘turnkey’ properties. The finest homes are as rare as unicorns and invariably trade competitively and without ever coming to the open market. With a recent Savills survey showing that 90+% of buyers see the lack of stock as their biggest issue, it is no surprise that our ability to gain preferential access to these discreet properties has become the focus for new clients when we meet. As ever, there is no shortcut to opening these elusive doors; it is about the strength of relationships, credibility and tenacity.”

Lack of supply looks set to support prices

Charlie Wells, Prime Purchase: “The prime housing market has felt robust but cautious this year, for obvious reasons. Clients are mindful of rising inflation and living costs, which are having a negative impact on us all. That said, life is too short to stand still and do nothing, so with some appropriate adjustments to aspirations and spending power, the market continues to move on with surprising gusto.

“Good houses, both in London and the country, seem to be receiving as much interest as ever with large numbers of viewings, competitive bids and premium prices being paid. There is a perpetual lack of supply; this imbalance in the prime markets looks set to continue to support prices, while hesitant buyers risk missing out.”

Chelsea in bloom, as Mayfair & Belgravia wilt

 

Camilla Dell, Black Brick: “St John’s Wood has been red hot for the last couple of years, and there is a real lack of supply of family houses.

“When a good house does come up it sells immediately, and records are being set. I would say that prices have gone up by at least ten per cent in the last 12 months.

“Chelsea is an area we now get asked to search in more than we did pre-pandemic.

“There has been a bit of a shift from people wanting a townhouse in Belgravia or Mayfair. Both suffer a bit from a reputation that a lot of owners are from overseas and nobody actually lives there. Chelsea is a much more residential area, and one which has got much, much nicer over the last few years, with immediate access to lovely coffee shops and restaurants.

“The pandemic has definitely made people value having a great quality high street close to their front door.

“We have also seen an uptick in interest in east London postcodes, particularly from entrepreneurs and tech types. There is definitely strong activity, which will be being driven by the return to normality and people going back to their offices.

“Plus, it is so much more affordable than Prime Central London for younger buyers.

“Some buyers are bound to be people who moved out of London and are now realising that they need to be back in their offices at least a few days a week. There are a lot of businesses which will not accept people working from home from the shires full time.

“I am sure that there are also a lot of returning renters thinking the same thing, which is why we are also seeing rents increase.”

What not to buy now: the six types of London home that may turn out to be a bad investment

Buying agent Camilla Dell, founder and managing partner at Black Brick Property Solutions LLP offers her tips to help London buyers avoid a bad buy.

Few people are putting their homes on the market at the moment and house prices are soaring — up £11,000 in the month of February alone, according to the latest Land Registry figures.

If you’re in a position to buy now it can be frustrating to see homes being priced out of your reach or, common in the current market, to find there’s no properties for sale.

Don’t be tempted into a bad buy out of desperation though, it’s better to bide your time than suffer from buyer’s remorse over such a major purchase as a house, especially with a more uncertain economic environment on the horizon.

These are the property types I would avoid in London in the current market.

Homes with no outside space

Timing is key in the property market. Outside space has become much more important to buyers over the past couple of years and is often top of their wish lists, whether it’s a private or communal garden or even just a balcony or terrace. A more desirable home will be a better investment.

After we helped a recent client to buy a new home they asked us to help sell a central London flat they also owned. It had no outside space, nor did it have anywhere to work from home so in the current market they would end up selling at a significant loss.

We advised them to wait until demand for city centre flats increases back to pre-pandemic levels.

Unmodernised properties

Fixer uppers should be cheaper than a turnkey home but buyer beware! In a market that’s short on supply (like this one) this isn’t always in the case.

In some hot areas, such as Notting Hill, there’s little price difference between a home that needs serious renovating and one that’s more up to date.

It’s absolutely crucial to do your own sums and obtain detailed quotes before making an offer on an unmodernised property, independently of an estate agent’s estimate.

The cost of renovations has significantly increased since Brexit and inflation rises and the Ukraine war are pushing them up even further, which could tip your ‘bargain’ home purchase well over budget and leave you living on a building site.

You should also get specialist advice from a planning consultant before submitting an offer — it’s no good buying a property thinking you can dig a basement or knock down a wall, only to find out you can’t.

Even small changes like replacing carpet for wood floors in an apartment may seem relatively straightforward but can be prohibited in some leases.

Ex-rental flats

There are a lot of ex-rental properties on the market at the moment, as private landlords exit the buy-to-let market.

You need to be extremely cautious when viewing these homes, if something seems very cheap, it’s likely there’s a reason.

Look out for: cladding issues, lack of outside space, distance to a park/green space, local high street and transport links and overall density of flats in the immediate surrounding area.

Some of the worst examples we have seen for sale are often located in high density older new builds (more than 10 years old) in secondary areas, far from transport links and outside space.

These types of flats are often sitting on the market for a year plus, with no sign of a buyer. Don’t let that happen to you.

Property with a poor EPC rating

Currently domestic private rental properties must meet a minimum level of energy efficiency; an EPC rating of E. However, from 2025, all newly-rented properties will be required to have a certification rating of C or above. Existing tenancies will have until 2028 to comply.

Our advice for any new entrants to the buy-to-let market is to look for properties with a C rating or above.

With energy bills set to soar this is also a major consideration from a running costs perspective.

Train or Tube-affected property

No matter how great a property looks, if you can hear the rumble of a Tube, this will always seriously impact the property’s value and future saleability.

Often this isn’t mentioned on an agents’ particulars so be sure to look at where tube lines are located and spend time in the property to check for noise. When considering a new purchase, it is important to familiarise yourself with the immediate area surrounding the home too.

Even if you are unable to book in multiple viewings, travelling to the property at different times of day to stand and listen is advisable.

A couple of years ago, a client of ours visited a property in the early evening having previously viewed it in the day. Upon viewing the property after dark, our clients found the area was overcrowded as people travelled home at rush hour, and the street became exceptionally noisy.

This is particularly important when purchasing in London as traffic and public transport vary greatly depending on the time of day.

Don’t commit if you have doubts

London is a long-term investment. Don’t be fooled into thinking that you can easily flip a property and make easy money.

Buying costs such as stamp duty and legal fees mean every property purchase will cost thousands of pounds on top of your deposit and mortgage.

To see meaningful price growth to offset all this you should have a long-term view of five years or more.

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Hampstead is one of the best areas to buy in London – if you can afford it

By Andrea Dean

From artists and authors to actors and pop stars, Hampstead’s always been a magnet for the rich, famous and influential.

Judi Dench, Liam Gallagher and Stephen Fry are just three of the household names who’ve lived locally in recent years, and no less than 75 plaques commemorate illustrious earlier residents such as John Constable, John Keats and George Orwell.

Working out why it’s so appealing is a no-brainer: it’s in a hilltop setting, packed with beautiful period properties, only a short distance from the West End and yet hasn’t lost its villagey atmosphere.

And there’s the Heath, a sprawling green space that, if it wasn’t for the views over the city, could be in the heart of the country.

Apart from the traffic, many of Hampstead’s residential streets and twisty cobbled lanes have hardly changed since the 19th century.

There are over 400 listed buildings, including Georgian townhouses, Victorian villas, terraces and cottages, plus mansion flats and some contemporary houses.

‘Hampstead’s been a key beneficiary of off-street parking,’ says Camilla Dell, founder of property buying specialist Black Brick, who lives in the area.

‘Prices range from £1,400 to over £2,000 per sq ft, and many of our sales are off-market, so not advertised.’

 

What’s new in the area?

Novel House is a scheme of luxury apartments in New End, a quiet enclave moments from Heath Street’s boutiques and restaurants.

They have high ceilings, picture windows, secure underground parking, and use of a 24-hour concierge, gym and landscaped gardens.

Prices range from £3.95million for a three-bedroom home to £5.95m for a four-bedroom duplex with a very large terrace, through Knight Frank.

The occasional one-off house aside, other current developments are on Hampstead’s borders.

They include Oakley Gardens on Childs Hill, where ready-to-move-into two and three-bed apartments with a concierge and underground parking start at £840,000, from Savills.

Nearby Coachworks Mews consists of three houses equipped with top-end Poggenpohl kitchens, oak staircases, underfloor heating and sedum roofs.

One three-bed, three-bath home is left, priced £2million, also via Savills.

First-time buyers are catered for at The Artisan, a newly launched mix of one and two-bed apartments by housebuilder Hill and available with Help to Buy.

Featuring sleek open-plan interiors with Caesarstone kitchen worktops, integrated appliances, LED lighting and underfloor heating, each has a balcony or terrace and there’s on site cycle storage. The starting price is £545,950.

Moving to Belsize Park, one final two-bed, two-bath apartment is for sale at Belsize Park Firehouse, in a converted Grade II*-listed red brick former fire station.

Combining original details with a contemporary finish, it’s yours for £1.55million, via Johns & Co.

 

Everything potential buyers need to know about Hampstead

Average house price: £1,636,319

Average rent: £3,431 pcm for a two-bed property

Council tax (Band D): £1,719.47

Commuting time to Zone 1: About ten mins from Hampstead to Euston

Annual Travelcard: £1,536

Amenities: ★★★★☆ Independents — though fewer than there once were — and premium chains on the slopes of Heath Street, Rosslyn Hill and Fitzjohn’s Avenue, and more around South End Green. Standouts include The Coffee Cup café, crepe stall La Creperie and Villa Bianca, an Italian eatery; try the Holly Bush, The Freemasons Arms or The Flask for a cosy pint; Everyman cinema; Keats House; Burgh House; Freud Museum; Kenwood

Open space: ★★★★★ Hampstead Heath includes woodlands, meadows, swimming ponds and sports facilities; Parliament Fields; Golders Hill Park

Schools: ★★★★☆ GCSE and A level results above average. The fact that there are more independents than state schools reflects how much money’s in the area

Crime: Slightly above average

Who lives there? Affluent families; a strong domestic market

Famous faces: Harry Styles owns three houses here

Schools, crime and house price data supplied by Zoopla.

 

What can I afford on the property ladder?

£450,000

This smart studio is on the second floor of a converted period house, and includes wooden flooring, a neutral décor and plenty of storage.

£1.25 million

A good-sized first/second-floor maisonette located between the high street and Heath. Has two bedrooms, kitchen and living room and a roof terrace.

£9.5 million

In a secluded spot adjoining the Heath, this elegant house incorporates six bedrooms, three bathrooms, a conservatory and south-facing garden.

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Sisters are doing it for themselves

ON INTERNATIONAL WOMEN’S DAY, RUTH BLOOMFIELD MEETS WOMEN AT  THE TOP IN LONDON HOUSING

From the boardroom to the building site, women are woefully under-represented on London’s housing scene. Less than one third of practising architects are women, while just 14 per cent of the construction workforce is female – and many of the nation’s major housebuilders have yet to admit a woman to their upper echelons.

So, on International Women’s Day, Metro is celebrating seven women who have smashed their way through the glass ceiling – and whose work is redefining where and how we live…

THE HOUSEBUILDER – Morwenna Hall is used to being a woman in a man’s world. She studied mechanical engineering at Bristol University, one of six female students in a class of 70. Today, the 39-year-old is chief operating officer and the only female partner at developer Argent, which spearheaded the regeneration of King’s Cross. She was responsible for Coal Drops Yard, the spectacular shopping destination and foodie hotspot which opened there in 2018.

She is now working on a £5billion redevelopment at Brent Cross Town in north London, which will feature 6,700 new homes and three million square feet of office space. It will, by 2030, be zero carbon and is likely to feature the type of landmark architecture that sets the new King’s Cross apart.

‘People seek out delightful experiences that stimulate their senses,’ says Morwenna. ‘Architecture is so important for this as not only does it create spectacles that are visually appealing, but it helps create places that enable a variety of uses and activities through incredible sounds, smells, tastes and textures, like planting and water play.’

She believes the reason women are so outnumbered in her industry is lack of information. ‘Lots of young women and girls are unaware of the job opportunities in housing and development, let alone encouraged into them,’ she said. ‘I spent quite a bit of time in my twenties and early thirties visiting schools to talk about my passion for and experiences in the built environment, but this is an industrywide imperative.’

Now her own career is flying high, Morwenna feels that it is her responsibility to champion other women.

‘I am very proud that in my role as COO, I have helped us transition to become a business where 50 per
cent of our heads of department are women,’ she said. ‘However, we know we still have much more to do to be a truly diverse organisation.’

THE BROKER – Over the past 27 years the Canary Wharf Group has redefined London’s second
financial centre into a viable place to live. And Katy Kingston, as managing director, legal, has helped broker the billions of pounds worth of funding required to make this change. The 46-year-old, who lives in Farnham, Surrey, has worked for the group since 2014 and while she has noticed female representation in the sector improving, thanks to innovations such as flexible working and mentoring schemes, she agrees more work needs to be done.

An example of this work is the ‘junior board recently set up by Canary Wharf Group to nurture the next
generation of talent. ‘I hope this emboldens young women to feel represented and heard,’ she says.

THE ESTATE AGENTS – Fifteen years ago Camilla Dell set up her own company, Black Brick, to help
buyers find their dream homes.

Camilla earned her property stripes working for Foxtons an for Knight Frank, but a distinct lack of female role models at most of the the major estate agent brands made her feel her chances of progression were limited. ‘When I was at Knight Frank, only one of the proprietary partners was a
woman, and I just thought, What are my chances? And I had always wanted to be the boss and do my own thing.’

Camilla, 44, lives with her family in South Hampstead and is now considered one of London’s leading
buying agents. Black Brick has done deals worth more than £1billion, including the recent sale of a Surrey country house worth close to £30million. She feels that being a woman has advantages in the
buying agency business.

‘I can do the facts, figures and numbers and I can empathise with buyers, which is important when they’re looking for a home rather than investment.’

When she was studying art history at Oxford it is likely that Emma Mansell dreamed of becoming an estate agent. But the company she leads is no ordinary agency.

The Modern House has carved a profitable and high-profile niche by curating a collection of ultra-stylish and beautifully photographed contemporary homes for sale.

Emma joined the firm in 2016, after an early career in the art world, including a stint at the Wallace
Collection. Back then the firm had nine employees. It now has more than 70 and Emma was made managing director last year, leading the launch of the firm’s sister company, Inigo, which specialises in equally stylish traditional homes, and its print and online magazine.

‘Our editorial output has always distinguished us from other estate agencies and helped us nurture a
community of people who are united by their love of good design,’ says Emma, who is in her early thirties and lives in south-east London.

‘I’d love our audience to use our platform for inspiration on how to make homes more sustainable, too. It
is essential that we are all looking to make these changes in whatever ways we can. We want to be the place where design and sustainability come together.’

THE LOW-COST HOUSING PROVIDER – After an early career in local government Kate Davis switched to social housing. She became chief executive of Notting Hill Genesis, one of London’s largest providers of low-cost housing, and a major force in new homebuilding, in 2014.

NHG has a portfolio of 67,000 homes and an annual turnover of £1billion, and Kate, who is in her sixties and lives in Paddington, works 50 to 60 hours in a normal week, and is on call 24/7 to deal with emergencies. She spends her spare time with family and friends, travelling and doing yoga. ‘I feel my life is balanced,’ she says.

During her tenure, Kate has faced some challenges, most notably when eight of Notting Hill’s tenants died in the Grenfell Tower disaster. The association has been caught up in the ensuing cladding crisis, spending ‘millions’ on dealing with fire safety upgrades to its own buildings.

She feels the approach to the crisis has been wrongheaded – that repairs should have been carried out on the most dangerous buildings first, with those paying the bill to include ‘government, the cladding
manufacturers, the building industry, the freeholder, insurers, and–in specific circumstances – the leaseholder’.

Another issue that worries Kate is shared ownership, the low-cost housing option pioneered by Notting
Hill in 1979. ‘It is too expensive for many of London’s key workers, because we get little grant and land
and housebuilding in London is very costly,’ she said. ‘I would [like to] make public sector land available free to housing associations. The 30 per cent reduction in the cost for the first-time buyer would be held
in trust by the association and recycled to the next person when the house is sold.’

THE CAMPAIGNER – Anya Martin first became interested in property when working as a housing assistant at a university. ‘I was exposed to the very worst end of renting, and became quite passionate
about it,’ she says.

Anya works as a research manager for a charity, but in her spare time she is director of pressure group Priced Out, which wants the Government to act to reduce the price of housing. ‘The biggest problem we have is a lack of supply,’ says Anya, 29, who rents in Brixton. ‘We have a lot of people competing for very few properties, and obviously the impact of that is that prices go up.

’Priced Out is looking for planning reform to make it easier to build homes for sale and rent in high-demand areas such as London, although it faces plenty of push-back from local groups who oppose
overdevelopment.

However, Anya says: ‘Generally there does seem to be a greater recognition that you can’t solve the
housing crisis without building more homes.’

For the most part, she says, being a woman hasn’t caused her any particular issues, although social
media’s keyboard warriors can descend to sexist slurs. ‘They call me a silly little girl, and things like that, because I disagree with them,’ she says. ‘I have just learned to ignore them or block them.’

THE ARCHITECTS – Deborah Saunt co-founded London architects DSDHA in 1998. She and her co-founder and husband David Hills built parts of the Olympic Village at Stratford, revamped the streets
around Tottenham Court Road and created their own amazing concrete home in Clapham, picking up 19 Royal Institute of British Architects awards along the way.

‘My practice specialises in rejuvenating underappreciated places,’ she explains. ‘It’s about being a catalyst for enhancing people’s lives, such as our reimagination of the National Youth Theatre in Islington which now brings some Broadway glamour and joy to everyone on the Holloway Road.’

Deborah, 56, saw the downside of being a woman in architecture as her career began to take off. ‘I was shocked how uncomfortable some of the older men were at seeing me in their midst; one of them confronted me with, “What are you doing here? This is for the big boys,” she says. ‘There were also unkind remarks about my gender being a factor in winning work, even though the practice was
winning awards and had won competitions fair and square.’ To her disappointment, this kind of
treatment has driven some women out of the profession; others are deterred by the long and expensive training.

Deborah helped set up the London School of Architecture, which encourages students from a diverse range of backgrounds to combine study with work. But she wishes developers, too, would think outside of the box.

‘In the main, it’s still the ‘big boys’ who win major projects because, typically, architects have to prove they have completed a number of previous similar projects to qualify, and developers tend to be risk averse.’

Katerina Dionysopoulou worked for some of the biggest names in British architecture – Lord Foster and
Thomas Heatherwick – before setting up Bureau de Change architects with Billy Mavropoulos, a friend from her Foster + Partners days.

The firm has designed private homes and extensions as well as shops, hotels and an upgrade of the
British Film Institute on the Southbank.

Katerina, 46, lives in Barbican with her husband and their four-year-old, and decided to go it alone because she wanted to pick and choose what she worked on and have complete control. ‘It is about
doing stuff that you fully believe in,’ she says.

She experienced plenty of everyday sexism along the way. ‘When I was doing the British Pavilion at the Shanghai Expo for Thomas, people would go to him behind my back, because perhaps they thought I
wouldn’t understand.’ She says she politely disregards ignorance and tolerates mansplaining.

‘You have to be a little bit oblivious and not let it hurt you,’ she says. ‘It is about achieving what you want at the end of the day.’

Comment: London buyers with cash to burn stumped by lack of available homes

By Prudence Ivey

Why is nobody selling their home if people are queuing up to buy?

It’s an age-old shoppers’ dilemma. You’ve finally got money to burn and an idea of what you’d like to spend it on. But you scour the high street and the furthest reaches of the internet and there’s nothing you want to buy.

We’ve all been there, but usually the item in question is a pair of shoes, maybe a coat or a party dress.

In the normal course of things, the barrier to buying a home in London is money, not that Goldilocks can’t find the perfect pad.

Of course I am not dismissing the plight of swathes of Londoners for whom the barriers are still resolutely financial (I hear you, I am you).

But those with money — and there are plenty of those — are not being put off by a 0.25 per cent interest rate rise, nor by a chunky 7.8 per cent increase in asking prices. Instead they are finding themselves stymied by a lack of homes to buy.

But why would people not be keen to sell when buyers are chomping at the bit and prices are rising?

Partly it’s that second-steppers with homes of their own to sell have settled, post stamp duty holiday and ‘race for space’, says Lawrence Bowles of Savills. They’ve been replaced by city-flat hungry first-time buyers who, by definition, don’t have properties to put on the market.

Buying agent Camilla Dell says the current market dynamics are also putting off would-be downsizers who can’t find a property but are reluctant to rent for fear prices will run away from them.

Property analyst Anthony Codling meanwhile sees no evidence of a drop in sales. In his view “it’s a case of homes flying off the shelves rather than the shelves being bare”.

One thing everyone agrees on is that whatever the cause, the effect will be continuing price rises. Dedicated shoppers may have a long wait on their hands.

Looking for a needle in a haystack: PCL buying agency highlights ‘acute’ stock shortage

Black Brick has invested in new tech to help bring elusive vendors out of the woodwork.

An agency has highlighted the distinct lack of options for house buyers in London’s prime neighbourhoods, as demand and supply levels remain out of kilter.

The dearth of listings in some parts of the capital has reached “acute” levels, according Black Brick, likening the current process of searching to “looking for a needle in a haystack”.

The firm’s analysis reveals there are a grand total of 36 houses with four or more bedrooms on sale across the entire NW1 postcode, which covers Camden Town, Primrose Hill, and Regent’s Park – an area estimated to have well over 1,000 such homes.

The situation is even worse in Little Venice, where just four large houses are on sale (and not under offer) – a tiny fraction of the 140 homes of this type which actually exist there.

In Holland Park, 17 family houses are on the market, out of a total of 455.

The firm says it has invested in new tech to help bring elusive vendors out of the woodwork. The approach – which analyses granular data to identify those owners who are more likely to sell – appears to be working, drawing responses from around one in ten owners…

Managing Partner, Camilla Dell: “No wonder buyers are not having much joy, particularly if they are buying houses. This is why you can’t ignore the off-market market.

“We have invested in technology which means we can study those 140 houses in Little Venice, for example, looking at factors like when they last sold and how much for, before making direct contact with their owners by letter.

“I would estimate we would get a ten per cent hit rate of people who were at least intrigued about what their home might be worth and willing to have a conversation about selling.”

The latest PCL-wide analysis by Coutts – covering Q4 2021 – showed a 17% drop in the number of properties available for sale, and a 12% fall in new listings.

Camilla Dell: Four themes that will shape an exciting year in Prime Central London

London is regaining its charm and drawing buyers back in

PCL is expected to see an influx of interest, with buyers gravitating back towards the city, as the “race for space” loses momentum. London hotspots in 2021 reflected the influence of the pandemic, leading buyers to move away from central London to outer suburbs like Wimbledon, Richmond and St John’s Wood.

Our clients were typically looking for detached houses, with outside space and an option for a short commute into central London. This is something we anticipate changing as buyers head back to inner London, giving attention to areas lacking interest in 2021.

There is one area at the forefront of buyer’s minds

Bayswater is the one to watch.

Having previously been considered a less desirable area, compared to its more swanky neighbours, it is becoming increasingly desirable. Buyers are comfortable returning to apartment living, as Hyde Park and Kensington Palace Gardens offer the reassurance of nearby public outside space for those buying a property without a private garden, patio or balcony. Although restrictions have eased, it is likely the pandemic will have a lasting effect on buyers, leading them to permanently consider outside space in their criteria when purchasing in London.

Super-prime developers Finchatton also believe in the area and recently launched new development ‘The Whiteley’, which will comprise luxury apartments, new retail space and a Six Senses Hotel. The new Park Modern development overlooking Hyde Park, in Bayswater also gives the area an added attraction, offering luxury, contemporary accommodation. And with Bayswater presenting considerably lower prices compared to its pricier neighbours, Notting Hill and Marylebone, it is the place to purchase, with good value for money and excellent long-term investment returns.

It’s one of the last, if not the last location in central London to be gentrified.

Whenever you have significant investment into an area, in the case of Bayswater, we are talking billions, it will have a positive knock-on effect on surrounding property values. It’s one of the last, if not the last location in central London to be gentrified. Bayswater has tended to languish at the £1,200-1,600 per square foot level, around half of what neighbouring Notting Hill and Mayfair can command. Even the luxury new builds being launched off plan in W2 at £3,000 per square foot look compelling when compared to the £5,000 per square foot plus that new builds on the other side of Hyde Park command. The re-vamping of Queensway, two luxury new build developments, and the arrival of a new Crossrail station means only one thing for Bayswater – the only way is up.

We are seeing an upturn in demand for apartments, but buyers are far more discerning than before the pandemic. Outside space and proximity to a good local high street are top of buyers wish lists. We are seeing a very tough market for sellers of ex-rental stock located in older new builds, some with cladding issues and which are poorly located and without outside space. There is no market for them, no matter how cheap they become. 

Unfortunately, unless apartment listings are located near green space, and a great high street they are likely to be difficult to shift

Unfortunately, not all apartments will make the London-wide comeback a lot of sellers are hoping for. Buy-to-let has lost its attraction for many private landlords, meaning ex-rentals are flooding the market with an added surge in apartment listings; supply is at an all-time high, while demand is selective and lacking. So unfortunately, unless apartment listings are located near green space, and a great high street they are likely to be difficult to shift.

Off-market sales are on the rise

With the majority of buyers on the lookout for properties with the same criteria, is it becoming the norm to engage in bidding wars, leading to paying over the asking price. To combat this issue, an increasing number of properties are being sold off-market. Our role as a buying agent has therefore become key, ensuring prospective buyers can navigate the complicated property market. 2021 saw a record percentage of ‘off-market’ sales for our clients, as we went the extra mile to secure dream homes around the capital.

This year, we have invested in technology that allows us to map out the number of potential off-market properties that match our clients brief. We then analyse this data, looking at who owns the property, when they bought it and at what price. We can then make very targeted approaches. As we are not estate agents, our approaches are often warmly welcomed by owners who may be considering a sale but are yet to list their property openly with an agent.

Buy To Let losing its appeal, warns leading London buying expert

By Graham Norwood.

One of the most respected buying agents in London says buy to let in the capital is losing its appeal for many investors.

Camilla Dell, founder and managing partner of Black Brick Property Solutions, says in a review of 2021 that while she is seeing an upturn in demand for apartments,  buyers are far more discerning than before the pandemic.

“Outside space and proximity to a good local high street are top of buyers wish lists. We are seeing a very tough market for sellers of ex-rental stock located in older new builds, some with cladding issues and which are poorly located and without outside space. There is no market for them, no matter how cheap they become.”

Dell continues: “Unfortunately, not all apartments will make the London-wide comeback a lot of sellers are hoping for. Buy To Let has lost its attraction for many private landlords, meaning ex-rentals are flooding the market with an added surge in apartment listings; supply is at an all-time high, while demand is selective and lacking.

“So unfortunately, unless apartment listings are located near green space, and a great high street they are likely to be difficult to shift.”

Looking ahead to the rest of 2022 Dell believes prime central London will see an influx of interest gravitating back towards the city, as the race for space loses momentum.

And she says there is one area of London at the forefront of interest – Bayswater.

“It is a unique part of London offering inner-city living, with competitive pricing and proximity to green space, reassuring buyers that they can enjoy the outdoors, when some apartments do not have their own outside space.”

And she concludes: “Bayswater is the one to watch. Having previously been considered a less desirable area, compared to its more swanky neighbours, it is becoming increasingly desirable. Buyers are comfortable returning to apartment living, as Hyde Park and Kensington Palace Gardens offer the reassurance of nearby public outside space for those buying a property without a private garden, patio or balcony. Although restrictions have eased, it is likely the pandemic will have a lasting effect on buyers, leading them to permanently consider outside space in their criteria when purchasing in London.”

“No market” for some prime London flats without outside space

By Graham Norwood.

A leading buying agency says that while prime central London’s property market shows clear signs of recovery, a weak area remains apartments without outside space.

Camilla Dell, founder and managing partner of Black Brick Property Solutions, says: “Not all apartments are equal. We are seeing an upturn in demand for apartments, but buyers are far more discerning than before the pandemic. Outside space and proximity to a good local high street are top of buyers wish lists. We are seeing a very tough market for sellers of ex-rental stock located in older new builds, some with cladding issues and which are poorly located and without outside space. There is no market for them, no matter how cheap they become.”

Dell continues “Unfortunately, not all apartments will make the London-wide comeback a lot of sellers are hoping for. Buy to let has lost its attraction for many private Landlords, meaning ex-rentals are flooding the market with an added surge in apartment listings; supply is at an all-time high, while demand is selective and lacking.

“So unfortunately, unless apartment listings are located near green space, and a great high street they are likely to be difficult to shift.”

In other sectors of the prime London niche, the outlook is much brighter.

Dell says proximity to public space remains high on the ‘must have’ list for buyers.

She says: “With the majority of buyers on the lookout for properties with the same criteria, is it becoming the norm to engage in bidding wars, leading to paying over the asking price.

“To combat this issue, an increasing number of properties are being sold off-market. Our role as a buying agent has therefore become key, ensuring prospective buyers can navigate the complicated property market. 2021 saw a record percentage of ‘off-market’ sales for our clients.”

The agency says that notwithstanding the frenzied buying climate in 2021, Black Brick secured an average 3.6 per cent off asking price, a figure which it says it hopes to exceed in 2022.

Dell believes prime central London will see an influx of interest, with buyers gravitating back towards the city, as the race for space loses momentum.

And she says there is one area of London at the forefront of buyers’ minds – Bayswater.

“It is a unique part of London offering inner-city living, with competitive pricing and proximity to green space, reassuring buyers that they can enjoy the outdoors, when some apartments do not have their own outside space.”

And she concludes: “Bayswater is the one to watch. Having previously been considered a less desirable area, compared to its more swanky neighbours, it is becoming increasingly desirable. Buyers are comfortable returning to apartment living, as Hyde Park and Kensington Palace Gardens offer the reassurance of nearby public outside space for those buying a property without a private garden, patio or balcony. Although restrictions have eased, it is likely the pandemic will have a lasting effect on buyers, leading them to permanently consider outside space in their criteria when purchasing in London.”

Property bidding wars break out at record pace

By Rachel Mortimer

Thousands of homes selling above asking price.

More than a third of home sales were subject to a bidding war last year, as a record number of buyers paid more than the asking price.

The share of homes sold in this way – defined as having three or more offers – hit 37pc in 2021, the highest figure since estate agency Hamptons began collating the data in 2010.

The vast imbalance between supply and demand pushed the proportion of properties selling for above the asking price to a record high. The share of sellers who achieved above the asking price in England and Wales exceeded 31pc last year. This was up from 19pc in 2020, 17pc in 2019 and 11pc a decade ago.

A dire shortage of properties for sale led to bidding wars breaking out, as desperate purchasers stretched themselves to buy bigger homes in leafier neighbourhoods. The lack of homes for sale that created the cut-throat market is predicted to continue this year.

The average estate agent branch has just 12 properties for sale, according to property website Rightmove. This has sped up the average time to sell: in December, buyers snapped up homes two weeks quicker than the same month in 2020.

This stark shortage of homes for sale, and the huge demand, has also pushed more buyers to sell “off market”, without publicly advertising.

More than 135,000 homeowners sold “off market” in 2021, a 60pc increase on the roughly 84,500 who sold in each of the previous two years.

The share of homes selling after three or more offers was highest in Scotland, where the nature of the property market means sales often include a closing date by which all interested parties must have submitted an offer.

Harry Maitland, of agency Savills, said: “Last year was a remarkable year. I can count on one hand those properties that didn’t have multiple offers or achieve their asking price.”

He said coastal areas and key commuter villages had proved the most competitive, especially among families, buyers moving from outside of Scotland, or those looking for a holiday home.

The share of homes subject to bidding wars never fell below 30pc last year.

He added: “Special properties in a good location can sell for more than 50pc over the asking price.

“There was one renovated bungalow with a sea view overlooking the beach near Elie [in Fife] which was on the market for around £425,000. It had 70 viewings in 10 days and had 22 offers – I have never seen that before. It sold for more than 50pc over its valuation.”

The finite nature of the stamp duty holiday, which ran from July 2020 to September 2021, cranked up pressure on buyers, pushing them into bidding wars.

But the share of homes selling above the asking price was still at a record high towards the end of the year, after the holiday had ended.

In March 2021, the month the tax break was initially intended to end, 26pc of homes sold for more than they were originally listed. By October this had increased to almost 38pc and was still at 35pc in December.

Ms Whitfield added: “A few of our properties in the Cotswolds sold for millions in excess of the guide price. Buyers are really having to sell themselves to get ahead in the race, some have been writing letters to sellers, trying to humanise their bid.

“In some sales the vendor’s cars have even been negotiated into the sales, because buyers are moving out of London and buying a property with land for which they need a four-wheel drive.”

Despite a well-documented exodus from London last year, bidding wars were also prevalent in the more high-end areas of the capital, said Tom Kain, of Black Brick, a buying agent.

‘Be ready to fight and scratch someone’s eyes out’: how to find a house in an overheated market

By Hugh Graham

Would you pay thousands to a buying agent to find your dream home? Here’s how it works.

The supply crisis is hitting homes hard. It’s not just a lack of building materials, labour shortages and difficulty sourcing trendy taps and tiles, it is about finding a house in the first place. Such has been the pent-up demand to move house or invest in a second home during the pandemic — encouraged by the stamp duty holiday — that the number of bidding wars is at a record high, pushing the proportion of homes selling for above asking price to a record high.

There is no sign of the heat in the housing market, especially in the most popular postcodes, waning in 2022. The equity analyst Kevin Cammack of Cenkos Securities said last week: “Normal house price economics are out of the windowuntil the supply side improves.”

There were 31 per cent fewer homes available to buy across Britain in December 2021 than in December 2019, and prospective buyer numbers were up by 66 per cent over the same period, according to research from Hamptons estate agency. Estate agents have an average of only 12 homes for sale on their books, a record low, according to the property website Rightmove, and an average of 29 buyers for every property (said the letting agent body Propertymark). So how on earth do you find a house?

The answer is off-market — properties that change hands before they reach the portals. Off-market used to be the domain of the 1 per cent, but in London a fifth of homes were sold that way last year, 9 per cent in Britain, according to Hamptons. To find one you often need the help of a buying agent. There are an estimated 1,500 such agents in the UK. They all have different styles and fees, and are all competing like mad to find houses to show their clients.

The buying agent Henry Pryor claims to “have a rapport with estate agents that other buyers will struggle to compete with and access to properties nobody else does. In today’s market you have to be ready to fight and scratch someone’s eyes out.” For this he charges a £2,400 retainer or 25 per cent of the saving on asking price he secures for clients, or a flat fee of £12,000 up front. He bought £100 million of property last year. He does leaflet drops, uses Facebook and scours parish magazines to track down the perfect home to match a client’s requirements.

Most recently he completed on a house in Fulham, west London, for a hedge-funder and his wife. “We stole it off another buyer who thought they had it for £1.82 million. We nipped in and got it for £1.85 million,” he says. “The people we stole it from rang up and said, ‘We should employ you; we can’t afford to be cross; can you find us another house?’ We just bought them a home.”

Camilla Dell, who runs the buying agency Black Brick in prime central London, has a targeted letter-drop system with in-house mapping technology. As well as a £3,000 retainer, she charges 2.5 per cent of the purchase price or 20 per cent of saving from asking price. “For a client in Dulwich we targeted 20 roads, sent 50 letters, got six responses; my client bought one of those houses,” Dell says.

Garrington Property Finders, founded by Phil Spencer, the presenter of the TV show Location, Location, Location, is the largest independent buying agency in the UK, covering southwest England to Scotland and charging £2,000 plus VAT (expires after nine months) plus 2.5 per cent of purchase price (or bespoke).

“We recently acquired a £2 million coastal property in the South West that hadn’t changed hands for 25 years,” says its chief executive, Jonathan Hopper. “We saw a photographer post some shots on Instagram that he had taken for a local estate agent. We approached the agent before it went to market. They had 37 viewing requests; we were first in the door, made an offer, exchanged in seven days and the vendor cancelled the other viewings because we had a good reputation with the agent. Agents come to us early doors. They know we have serious buyers.”

Most buying agents require a minimum spend of £500,000 to £1 million; you’ll need to spend £2.5 million if you want to be on the books of Jess Simpson. She charges up front a £2,500 retainer plus VAT (valid 12 months), plus 2.5 per cent of purchase price, to find you a place in the home counties, Cotswolds, Wiltshire, Dorset or Somerset. Her USP? “I’m a chartered surveyor. I can value properties from a technical perspective,” she says. “I source properties through a network of solicitors, accountants, farming and riding communities. We keep our ear to the ground at the school gates; we get a lot of info there about who is thinking of moving. We know the local communities and issues. We know if there are plans to build 300 houses outside the village or if that lane is a rat run. Because of the shortage of houses on the market, right now we are offering sellers 12-month completions to give them time to find somewhere else to buy.”

However, in a move to “disrupt” this rather rarefied marketplace, Henry Sherwood, who founded the Buying Agents — whose patch covers central London, Surrey, Berkshire, Oxford and Bristol — has no minimum entry requirement, but will charge a minimum fee of £10,000, or a £500 retaining fee plus VAT (valid for six months), plus 1.5 per cent of purchase price. Prospective buyers benefit from a database of 18,000 contacts, including previous clients, private banks, wealth managers and family offices.

“We approach concierges in buildings and speak with them and find out which agents have gone in to do valuations,” Sherwood says. “There are no bargains in this market. If you are looking for discounted property we are not the firm for you.”

He cites a recent deal in which an American hedge-funder who owned a castle in Cambridgeshire wanted to buy the gatehouse. “But the gatehouse owner refused to sell to him — they had fallen out. So I got a friend of mine to pose as a buyer. He bought it for about £800,000 and on the same day sold it to the American hedge-fund guy. It’s called a simultaneous purchase. It’s perfectly legal.”

Mark Parkinson, a co-founder of Middleton Advisors, whose encyclopaedic knowledge of houses in southern England is second to none, charges a £2,750 retainer plus VAT (no expiry date), plus 2.75 per cent of purchase price. He will draw up a shopping list for each client, then approach the owners to “try to unlock those doors”.

Parkinson says: “It’s amazing how many people will sell if it’s discreet and they don’t have to open up their house to viewings on a Saturday. We don’t put letters in boxes, as they go straight in the bin. Agents know if they ring up the owners for us, there is a 90 per cent chance that our clients will buy it.”

It was how one of Parkinson’s clients recently acquired a £3 million country house with no agents or other buyers involved. “Nobody else saw it. Nobody else had an inkling it was for sale,” Parkinson says. “Had it been in Country Life there would have been a bidding war. Some sellers are not after every last pound and shilling. There is huge value in doing something privately and discreetly.”