One in four sales in December were struck by the scourge of a renegotiated fee

By Alexandra Goss

Bargain-hunting home buyers have caused a spike in “gazundering”, a tactic when a buyer makes a lower offer at the eleventh hour to force the seller to cut a property’s price.

In November, 39pc of properties sold by the house buying company Quick Move Now were subject to gazundering, up from 13pc in October and at a level not seen since 2008.

In December, traditionally a quiet month for the property market, gazundering affected a quarter of sales.

Those who gazunder are taking advantage of a weak property market, by gambling that the seller is so far into the process that they will have no choice but to accept. The gambit is often made just before exchanging contracts to force the hand of the vendor.

Danny Luke, of Quick Move Now, says: “Anecdotally, we have not seen gazundering volumes like this since 2008. Some buyers lower their offers last-minute because they have a change in financial circumstances or their mortgage company won’t lend them as much as planned; others simply want to take advantage of their strong position in the current market.”

Gazundering is a controversial practice and buyers who do it can cause a property sale – and even an entire chain of sales – to collapse. While the majority of Quick Move Now’s sales that experienced gazundering last month were successfully re-negotiated at a lower selling price, 17pc were rejected and the sale fell through.

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In John and Francine’s case, and very unusually, gazumping actually happened after a buyer had exchanged – but before completion – on their much-loved home of 47 years in Thames Ditton, Surrey.

The couple, who are in their 80s and preferred not to give their last name, were selling up to move to a smaller, new-build home closer to their daughter in East Sussex.

They accepted an offer and exchanged contracts at the beginning of August, with a completion date set of Oct 31, which is when they in turn were due to complete on the purchase of their new home, in the Hillbury Fields development in Ticehurst.

However, on the morning of moving day, as the trucks with their belongings were on the M25, the buyer lowered his offer substantially. This breached the contract and meant the buyer would incur financial penalties – and also meant John and Francine wouldn’t have the funds for their onward purchase.

“Then followed frantic calls to the removal company to pull over and have a coffee while we worked out what to do,” says John, a retired lawyer. “Thank goodness we could stay with our daughter and son-in-law.

The couple’s daughter contacted friends and family who offered to lend money to help them make up the difference created by the gazundering and complete on their new home. “We transferred our savings and everyone’s money arrived in the nick of time,” John says. “Even our grandsons sent us several thousand pounds, which all helped, though it was nail-biting.”

John and Francine didn’t respond to the buyer’s new offer and he ended up completing four days later with the full agreed amount. “We did at that point enjoy a bottle of champagne,” John says.

While gazundering is still relatively rare, increasing numbers of buyers are betting they can get a bargain by looking at properties beyond their budget. In 2023, Hamptons estate agency found that 13.9pc of viewings were of homes that were above what the purchaser could afford, up from 9.4pc in 2021.

David Fell, of Hamptons, says: “These viewings are most likely to take place across the south of the country, where loans tend to be higher relative to incomes and house prices have come under most downward pressure from higher mortgage rates.”

There are certainly some good deals to be had. Will Watson, of property finders The Buying Solution, helped two clients buy properties in December at discounts of 10pc to 15pc compared with similar homes sold a year earlier. Meanwhile, Nigel Bishop, of the buying agency Recoco Property Search, found his client a property in Cornwall which was on the market for £2.1m but they managed to get the seller to accept a price of £1.85m.

As well as bargaining on price, buyers are negotiating very hard from the outset on other factors. The buyer of a house being sold recently by Josephine Ashby, of John Bray Estates in north Cornwall, was “incredibly demanding”, and asked for “a huge amount of extras to be included in the sale, from furniture right down to the family’s Hunter wellies”.

She added: “The sellers were exasperated, but it made sense to take a deep breath and see the sale through.”

There has also been an increase in renegotiations after an offer has been agreed, according to estate agents. Arlington Residential, a north-west London estate agency, found that the buyers of almost one in 10 homes it sold in 2023 sought to renegotiate the price during the buying process, double the proportion seen three years earlier.

Mark Crampton, who covers the southern home counties for the buying agency Middleton Advisors, says renegotiations are often for good reason – such as when a survey has flagged up expensive defects, or where there are legal or title problems. “Historically these issues would have been ‘taken on the chin’,” Mr Crampton explains.

“However, for the first time in around a decade, we are seeing buyers have the confidence either to reduce their offer or walk away from a deal if the seller doesn’t agree to a well-justified reduction.”

As mortgage rates fall, the outlook is brightening for anyone wanting to sell their home this year.

However, while well-presented properties in sought-after locations are getting interest from buyers, those with any sort of issue or which need extensive renovation works will take longer to sell and are more likely to experience gazundering.

Caspar Harvard Walls, of Black Brick buying agency, says: “Where properties are compromised there is much greater scope for buyers to try to renegotiate the price at the last moment.”

There are ways to reduce the chances of sales falling through. Most important is setting a reasonable price from the outset; the property website Rightmove predicts that new seller asking prices will drop nationally by an average of 1pc in 2024.

Tim Bannister, of the firm, says: “Motivated sellers still need to price below their local competition to secure a sale, as buyer affordability remains stretched.”

London estate agency Johns&Co asks buyers to provide a non-refundable deposit after their offer is accepted, as is common in the new-build market, because this provides reassurance for the seller that the buyer is committed.

Owners should also choose their buyer with care, says Charlie Wells, of the buying agency Prime Purchase. “Don’t necessarily opt for the buyer offering the most money,” Mr Wells says.

“I know of two £3m to £4m sales recently where the vendors went with the highest bidder offering the best terms and then the buyer either fell away because they tried to renegotiate too hard or their bid turned out not to be as rosy as it appeared.” In both cases, the sellers ended up going with the lower bidder.

And buyers considering gazundering should think very carefully before doing so. Clare Coode, of Stacks Property Search in Cornwall, says: “The loss of goodwill is so considerable it can end up poisoning the purchase, or sabotaging it altogether. Even if the sale goes ahead, the buyers will be moving into a house without any goodwill – or lightbulbs – and potentially unfriendly neighbours who will have been informed of the bad behaviour.”

By Alexandra Goss

Renovating a house from top to bottom is not for the faint-hearted, but if the property is listed, this comes with many added layers of red tape and expense. Just ask Claire Collins, who has spent two years restoring an elegant Georgian house in Lansdown, Bath.

“When I bought the house, it was so beautiful but hadn’t been touched in decades,” says Ms Collins, who has completely overhauled the five-bedroom, Grade II-listed townhouse. As well as restoring it to its former glory, she is adding 21^st-century sustainability credentials such as insulation, an air source heat pump and solar panels.

The works entailed a lengthy dialogue with the local planning department about what changes could be permitted, plus help from specialist architects and structural engineers, as well as months of painstaking research. Ms Collins, who runs Concept Interior Design and Decoration, even went to Bath’s Guildhall to find plans showing the Victorian gothic conservatory that once abutted the house.

 

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“This had been replaced by a 1980s conservatory that was falling apart, and the planners initially wanted me to rebuild a gothic conservatory,” explains Ms Collins, who eventually gained consent to create a garden room that has “a nod to the Victorians”.

“It’s a bit of a dark art dealing with the planners – you have to do a lot of homework and spend a huge amount of time and money,” Ms Collins adds. “Yet planners are so important – without them, historic buildings in places such as Bath wouldn’t be beautifully preserved.”

Buildings are listed to recognise their special architectural or historic interest. There are about 400,000 listed buildings in England, around 47,000 in Scotland and 30,000 in Wales – and all are governed by strict rules.

High prices for materials and rising mortgage rates have dampened buyer demand for renovation projects generally – and this is even more the case for listed properties, according to Jamie Jamieson, of Jamieson Property Search in Norfolk.

“There’s a lack of appetite to do a lot of work and if the property is listed, the cost of specialist architects, heritage consultants and builders has made people wary,” he says.

Even if you’re not planning to do major work, these old buildings tend to require more maintenance than a modern home, warns Jonathan Hopper, of Garrington Property Finders.

“Listed properties are the classic cars of the property world, and their unique nature and character can be a source of both joy and painful expense – often together. The kerb appeal of a beautiful, historic property can be hard to beat, but you should never buy one lightly.”

If you’re weighing up buying a listed property, here’s what you need to know.

 

Understand the listing

The listing of buildings was introduced in the 1950s to protect Britain’s heritage buildings, and more properties are listed by Historic England, Historic Environment Scotland and Cadw in Wales every year. In general, all buildings built before 1700 that survive in anything like their original condition are likely to be listed, as are most dating from 1700-1850. Some notable post-war properties are also included.

Most listed buildings in England and Wales are Grade II, “of special architectural or historic interest”. Less than 6pc are Grade II* – “particularly important, of more than special interest” – while Grade I status, comprising only 2.5pc, is for those of “exceptional interest”.

A listing must be studied carefully to understand its scope. In most cases, classification protects the whole building – inside and out – along with structures, including modern extensions. It can also include outbuildings, walls and even garden statues.

 

Read up on the rules

A listed building cannot be altered without special permission from the local council, known as “listed building consent”. In general, it’s easier to make changes to Grade II listed buildings, whereas it’s much harder for Grade II*, and almost impossible for Grade I.

As well as getting consent – and, often, also planning permission– for altering internal layouts or adding extensions, you may also need permission for minor changes to Grade II*-listed buildings, such as door handles or wallpaper, warns Claire Carter, of John D Wood & Co estate agency. Mark Lawson, of buying agency The Buying Solution, once helped a client buy a Grade I-listed house where they were not allowed to change the paint colour in the hall.

Confusingly, the rules are not clear cut. All cases are treated on an individual basis and different councils – and even different individual council officers – have subtly different listed buildings consent requirements.

 

Prepare to negotiate

In general, planners now often prefer new extensions to old buildings, says William Green, from Fisher German estate agency. He also advises asking for more than you want and being prepared to accept a middle ground.

“So, if you ask to remove a wall, it’s possible that you’ll be allowed to open a wide archway,” he explains. “Above all, be consensual with your conservation officer. Take their advice and don’t go to war – because you won’t win.”

Philip Harvey, from the buying agency Property Vision, had a client who wanted to convert an old farm shelter made of telegraph poles and corrugated sheeting into an indoor swimming pool.

“As it was in the curtilage of a Grade II*-listed medieval farmhouse, listed building consent was required and, unfortunately, the conservation officer tried to argue that the shelter couldn’t be removed as it showed ‘the story of farming on the site’,” Mr Harvey explains. “After some time, sense finally prevailed and it is now a swimming pool.”

 

Breaches are really serious

Carrying out work without the correct permissions is a criminal offence, with a maximum penalty of two years’ imprisonment or an unlimited fine – Rhianne McIlroy, of buying agency Middleton Advisors, has heard of fines of £100,000-plus for unapproved renovations. “Not to mention you may have to reverse the changes you’ve made,” she adds.

Even more frightening, when you buy a listed building, you inherit any unauthorised work undertaken by previous owners. As there is no time limit on enforcement action, you may have to reverse the alteration – whether that’s a poor replacement window, an extension or a swimming pool.

As such, during the buying process you need to instruct an experienced solicitor who is well-versed in listed buildings in your area, and who can check all previous works had the required consent. If anything was changed without permission, you can retrospectively apply for approval, but don’t sign on the dotted line until this has been granted.

Camilla Dell, of the buying agency Black Brick, has had at least three sales fall apart when it was discovered that changes to a listed property were not consented. “Also, most mortgage lenders will not lend against a property that has been altered without the proper consents,” she adds.

Even if past mistakes don’t derail a sale, they can cause exorbitant costs down the track. David Mackenzie at Carter Jonas estate agency once had buyers purchasing a house with an historic mural, which ran upwards from the ground floor to the upper floors via a cantilevered staircase.

“The owners had painted over the original mural and it needed to be completely put back to its original state – a very expensive endeavour,” he says.

 

You need expert help

Before you buy, it is crucial to get a full building survey from a surveyor who specialises in historic properties in your area. This will be more expensive, but will give you an important insight into the condition of the building and any potential issues – as well as give details on the building materials, and even possibly cover the extent of remedial work required.

Also, if you’re buying with a view to doing work, consult an architect and builder who specialise in listed buildings to look at it and advise what work could potentially be done (subject to consent) and at what cost, says Carol Peett, of West Wales Property Finders.

Note that work to listed buildings will often have to be done by specialist craftspeople in heritage materials, such as lime mortar. In some cases, this is extremely specific – Adam Lascelles, of By Design estate agency in Lincolnshire, once sold a listed property where the owners had to use a particular sheep’s wool from Wales for loft insulation, and specialised wood from Norfolk for their garden fences.

If you have the right people on board, the seemingly impossible can be done. Craig Fuller, of Stacks Property Search, recently helped clients to buy a house that had 49 breaches of listed building consent.

“Yet my buyers went ahead and have had plans approved for nearly every request – including making new openings in the main walls and putting in larger windows,” Mr Fuller says. “They had exceptional advisors with extensive experience with the planning office.”

 

Budget for the costs

Higher building costs for listed homes mean that insurance premiums tend to be higher, and you may have to find specialist cover.

Jess Simpson, of Jess Simpson Property Search, advises budgeting at least 20pc extra for renovations depending on the level of the listing and the renovations. Note, too, that timescales will be considerably longer due to planning and having to secure the specialists needed.

The cost of purchase, plus that of restoration, rarely equals the value of the house when done, warns Robin Gould, of the buying agency Prime Purchase. “So it takes a special kind of person to take on one of these projects and plough oodles of hard-earned money into preserving an historic building for future generations.”

 

Beware the draughts

Listed buildings have single-glazed windows, no insulation and were built to breathe. Large rooms and high ceilings in Georgian properties, for instance, also make them expensive to heat, while listed buildings are exempt from needing an energy performance certificate (EPC).

While you can make simple improvements, such as adding loft insulation and curtains, getting consent for measures such as double glazing or solar panels can be difficult – and, in some cases, impossible.

 

Look out for red flags

If a building is old and “feels” special but isn’t listed, tread carefully, warns Mark Crampton, of Middleton Advisors, because it could be “spot listed” when a planning application is lodged. “This can scupper plans if the intention is to make significant changes,” he says.

This fear was what prompted a client of Jo Eccles, of the London buying agency Eccord, to pull out of the purchase of a £17m house previously owned by a world-renowned musician.

“As their vision for the property developed, with plans for a basement swimming pool, it became clear there was a risk their plans could prompt a review of the property’s status, resulting in it being listed,” Ms Eccles explains. “It was too big a risk to take and our buyers had no choice but to walk away.”

 

Embrace the benefits

As well as rubber stamping your own piece of history, a listing gives the wider area cachet – and protection. If you own a listed property in a Georgian terrace, for instance, it’s likely your neighbours will also be listed, meaning there is little chance of the beautiful road being ruined by an ungainly modern addition.

A listed home with wonderful architecture and an interesting history may also be able to make you money, says Joe Charlton, from Strutt & Parker estate agency in Canterbury. “We’ve had plenty of clients who have let out their listed house or gardens for film or photoshoot locations and earned income with little hassle,” he says.

Select locations across Britain are seeing pre-pandemic transaction levels

By Ruth Bloomfield

On the face of it, the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea, with its palace, its Michelin star restaurants, and its fabulously expensive real estate, has little in common with the down-to-earth Lancashire town of Clitheroe, where the main attractions include a tiny Norman castle and some outstanding traditional pubs.

But these two locations, just over 200 miles apart, share a key property parallel. They top a new league table of the locations across England and Wales where the number of homes being bought and sold exceeds pre-pandemic levels.

In Kensington & Chelsea transaction levels today are 40pc over 2019 rates, while in Clitheroe, and the wider Ribble Valley, they are up 17pc.

This is important because transaction levels are a key indicator of the health of a housing market, showing where buyer confidence is strong enough (and their pockets deep enough) to commit to sales despite rising interest rates, the cost of living crisis, and fears of future property price drops.

And, the thesis goes, if buyers are active and business is brisk, price rises should follow. Research by Savills highlights the performance of a dozen different locations which are defying a gloomy national picture of price falls and subdued trading.

According to the latest data from the HM Revenue and Customs the number of transactions in the year to March 2023 were down almost 19pc on the previous year.

And the Bank of England reports that the number of mortgage approvals is down 25.5pc in the same period.

The dozen locations include a quartet of affluent, expensive London neighbourhoods beloved of young City workers, aspirational families, and overseas buyers.

Alongside Kensington & Chelsea, London’s top performers are Westminster, Hackney, and Islington. Affluent commuter neighbourhoods – Epsom and Ewell, in Surrey, Chichester, West Sussex, and Windsor and Maidenhead, Berkshire – also rank highly.

But the south east does not have things all its own way. Alongside the Ribble Valley and neighbouring Burnley, there has been strong transaction growth in West Lancashire, with its good-looking villages and appeal to commuters from Liverpool and Manchester, and Salford, Greater Manchester.

But of the UK’s coastal locations, which saw phenomenal demand and price growth during the height of the pandemic, only Northumberland has managed to sustain transaction levels to a level exceeding 2019.

 

Last spring Guy and Harry Dixon-Smith moved into their first home, a three-bedroom flat in Hackney Wick. The brothers were given a leg up onto the property ladder by their sympathetic parents, who understood that high (and rising) rents in the capital meant it was impossible for the pair to save for a deposit.

Their apartment cost £600,000, and mortgage repayments come in at £1,200pcm. But even when service charge is added Guy, 28, an estate agent who works in Savills’ Hackney Wick office, and Harry, 27, who works for a start-up, are still laying out less on accommodation than the £800pcm each were paying to rent rooms in shared flats.

Guy suspects that the reason Hackney – and neighbouring Islington – are trading so well is partly because they have become vibrant, hip destinations that appeal to buyers just like him. “They have got amazing restaurants, music and culture, and that is a draw to people,” he says.

And their relatively high buying costs – the average Hackney home costs £630,000 according to the latest UK House Price Index while Islington’s average price is £689,000 – are not a deterrent to the kind of buyer Guy currently deals with most frequently.

“Against the headwinds that we are seeing, the most prominent buyer is the cash buyer, and buyers less reliant on debt,” he says.

“There is a lot of bank of mum and dad going on. They see that they can bypass mortgage price hikes, and with rents getting higher and higher they are being pushed towards buying.

“It is definitely not the mass market which is buying at the moment.”

In prime central London, Caspar Harvard-Walls, a partner at Black Brick, is not jubilant about the strong performance of Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster, pointing out it must be put into context.

“In early 2019 we had Theresa May as prime minister, we were going through the agony of Brexit, and there was the worry of Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister,” he says.

“Confidence was very, very low, and transactions were low. Comparing now to then is a comparison to a real low point.”

This does not mean there are no reasons to be cheerful about the current scenario in prime central London.

“Overseas buyers have certainly been returning to London,” says Harvard-Walls.

“They are not worried about interest rates, it is all about confidence, and they are also benefiting from the weak pound. A lot of domestic buyers in these areas work in the financial markets and have done really well in the last couple of years so they also have money to spend.”

Add to this a renewed interest in buying flats, which were out of favour during the pandemic, and Harvard-Walls feels that prime central London is now “back to normal” after a difficult four years.

Few overseas buyers and high rolling City workers venture as far north as Northumberland.

Its strong showing is based more on British lifestyle movers attracted by the glorious scenery of its national park, its ruggedly beautiful countryside, and a strong sense of nostalgia.

Demand from foreign buyers surges in wake of mini-Budget and falling house prices

By Rachel Mortimer

Wealthy foreign buyers are snapping up London’s most expensive homes in cash, tempted by a cooling property market and weak pound.

Half of the homes sold in “prime” central London in January were bought without a mortgage, up from 42% in the same month in 2022 and 38% in January 2021, according to analysis by estate agency Hamptons.

Demand from international buyers, especially those with currencies pegged to the US dollar, surged in the wake of the mini-Budget last year as the pound dropped to a record low and they pounced on huge discounts.

The pound has since recovered to the level seen in August last year, but buyers who exchanged funds during the market dip are now reaping the rewards.

Victoria Allner, of BNP Paribas Real Estate, said foreign cash buyers were effectively securing a “double discount” on London homes.

Ms Allner said that some people were buying in cash and then taking mortgages out later.

She said: “International buyers, particularly those who are dollar-pegged from the US, Middle East and Asia have been looking to actively take advantage of the devalued sterling since the mini-budget.

“Their strategy is to buy now but leverage later – making the most of the slight decline in property values and the discount given by current currency levels, while not subjecting themselves to mortgage rates until they become more attractive.”

Ms Allner said one super wealthy client from the Middle East had exchanged their currency last year when the pound plummeted and now had a budget 25% bigger ready to spend on property.

She added: “It’s effectively in line with the discount between the pound and the dollar at the low of September.”

Buying agent Black Brick reported the share of cash buyers had more than doubled as borrowing costs rose throughout last year. Half of its clients now pay in cash, up from an average of 20% in previous years.

Cash buyers are favoured by sellers because they offer a quick and simple sale, unlike mortgage borrowers who must contend with an often arbitrary lending process. Their appeal is no different in prime markets.

Camilla Dell, of Black Brick, said: “Many vendors will place significant value on securing a cash buyer for their property, particularly in a market currently riven with down-valuations and fall throughs.

“They may even accept a lower offer for their property if the buyer is able to pay in cash. It is a buyers’ market at the moment and being a cash buyer means that you have a better chance of getting a better price agreed.”

Business from across the pond, she added, was booming. Almost a third of the company’s transactions in 2022 were with US buyers, more than double the 12.5% recorded in 2021.

Ms Dell said: “There’s an investment case for US dollar buyers to be eyeing the market right now.

“Prime central London property values are down 18pc since the peak in 2014, combined with the currency effect, dollar buyers are now getting a 42% discount compared to then, all making it very appealing.”

 

By Alexa Phillips

House hunters now hold more power – here are the tactics to use

 

Savvy property hunters may now be able to secure steep discounts on their purchases as chains break down and rising mortgage rates hit prices.

Demand from buyers has dropped by a fifth in the last two weeks, according to the property website Zoopla, creating a buyer’s market in many areas.

House prices could already be falling due to spiralling mortgage rates, but lags in collecting the data mean the impact cannot be seen yet. A slump of 10pc is expected over the next two years, according to estate agent Knight Frank.

Jonathan Hopper, of buying agents Garrington Property Finders, said Britain is moving from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market.

“A couple of months ago, asking for a double-digit discount wouldn’t have happened anywhere in the UK; you’d get laughed at,” he said. “Now we’re in a market where sellers are open to those sorts of discussions because there is far more flexibility and a pragmatic approach starting to emerge in the market.”

 

How to grab a bargain

 

Mr Hopper said prospective homeowners can improve their chances of snagging a better deal by showing sellers they are a reliable choice.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty about people who’ve had mortgage deals pulled or haven’t re-checked their finances and don’t know if they can still afford what they thought they can afford,” he said.

“If you can demonstrate that you’re organised and a strong purchaser, preferably who’s willing to offer a degree of flexibility – because there’s a lot of sellers whose plans have been shaken – that’s very valuable and very attractive to sellers at the moment.”

He recommended that buyers have up-to-date information from their lenders and are not relying on a months-old “agreement in principle”, a precursor in the application process which gives a buyer an idea of how much they can borrow.

Banks have been withdrawing some agreements over concerns that borrowers can no longer afford the same mortgage size due to rising rates.

Mr Hopper advised against being overly aggressive on price at the outset of negotiations, which can alienate sellers. He said buyers should first take time to listen to what a seller’s motivations are. “For some it may be price, but for others it may well be timescales or flexibility,” he said.

He said buyers can then make a structured offer, preferably in writing, which outlines why they are the best solution for that seller, with supporting evidence.

One of his clients secured 9pc off the asking price of a property on Friday by offering them certainty that the deal would go through. “We were deemed the strongest bidder rather than the highest bidder,” he said. The buyer had a large deposit, evidence of proof of funds and an agreement in principle that was only three days old.

He said the seller was then able to negotiate a discount on their own purchase by showing that the chain was unlikely to collapse.

“A couple of months ago, greed would have trumped insecurity, but we’re now in a market where certainty of one’s position is more important than trying to squeeze the last pound out of something,” he said.

 

‘Wait and see’

 

Henry Pryor, another buying agent, agreed that aspiring homeowners could gain an advantage by pitching themselves as a reliable option. “But don’t rush, wait for the other side to come to you,” he said. “The balance of power is swinging very much in favour of buyers away from sellers.”

He advised against making a property purchase right now, calling it a “huge financial gamble”. He said: “You can buy a house today, but it will be cheaper tomorrow and even cheaper next year.”

He also advised against being fooled by price reductions on listings websites, which have increased in recent weeks. “The asking price is not a statement of value,” he said. “It’s like the handkerchief that a magician uses in a conjuring trick. Just because someone was asking for a pound doesn’t mean it was worth a pound.”

The difficulty for buyers is in knowing what properties are worth due to the changing nature of the market, he added.

Casper Harvard-Walls, of buying agency Black Brick, said some estate agents are deliberately choosing high asking prices knowing they will be negotiated down. Others are opting for lower asking prices to attract more offers, but may expect higher bids.

He recommended that buyers keep a close eye on sale prices in the area they want to buy in. “They can then compare what sold previously to what they’re being offered by the agent to build a picture and tailor their offer,” he said. He said this is a much smarter strategy than just making offers that are 10pc below the asking price.

By Mick Brown

Along with extreme wealth comes extreme security costs

A few years ago an international businessman – we’ll call him Hugo for the sake of discretion – was involved in the oil business in Latin America where he lived. He was doing well, winning tenders ‘in ways most of my rivals hated’. In a bid to discredit him, the rivals started planting stories in the media designed to blacken his name. Then the newspapers began publishing his address and pictures of his wife and family. “At that stage I had to make a decision whether to hire a squad of bodyguards or leave. I left.”

The bodyguards came later.

Roll on a couple of years and Hugo bought a company in another Latin-American country, rated one of the most unstable and dangerous in the world. His wealth alone would have been enough to bring unwanted attention, but in a volatile country, where the line between business and crime is a fine one and often crossed, the risk of kidnap or murder became real.

Hugo did not live in the country, but would fly in regularly for meetings, staying for two or three days at a time. This is how it worked: through a London security company, he hired a group of security professionals, ex-SAS and Royal Military Police – universally recognised as the best trained and most professional protection money can buy. A bodyguard would be waiting as he stepped off the plane and would accompany him to a waiting car and driver, parked at the closest point to the exit. “You wouldn’t know he was security. He wouldn’t be carrying a gun or have a radio in his hand or anything like that. The idea would be not to call too much attention to me or him.”

In the car, Hugo would be briefed on a ‘safety word’ (in one instance, Titanic) – to be used in any situation necessitating “getting the hell out of there as quickly as possible. Most people,” he says, “think security is about your guys fighting the other guys. It’s not. It’s about extracting you in one piece.”

Following an itinerary, he would check in to a hotel, taking a corner suite and booking either the entire floor or rooms immediately adjacent with a body-guard posted in each. All rooms would have been swept for bugs beforehand. One guard would stand outside his suite; another would be downstairs, watching people come in or out. For meetings in the hotel, everybody would be searched going in and have their mobile phones taken. If Hugo had to travel anywhere it would be in a bulletproofed vehicle, with two bodyguards and a driver. Wherever he was going would have been reconnoitred beforehand.

On one occasion, one of his business partners was travelling with three UK-trained security guards when the car was surrounded by a group of armed men, demanding to know their business. Rather than pulling their own guns, two of the security men calmly stepped out of the car and started photographing the group, who were so unsettled that they left. “It was incredible,” says Hugo. “The security guys knew how to read these things and exactly what to do.”

On another occasion, a gang was attempting to steal some documents from a car. They were confronted. Shots were fired and two of the thieves were killed. “It was serious stuff. And then, in countries like that, you don’t hang around for the police.” The security men skipped over the border to a neighbouring country and were flown out. Hugo estimates that he was spending around $200,000 (£144,000) a month on personal protection. “But it was worth it.”

Mayfair, Kensington, St John’s Wood and the Cotswolds aren’t Central or South America, but if you’re very rich things can still get a little sketchy, and in times of uncertainty help may be required.

In 2019, the UK market in security was worth over £13 billion. And Britain, says Philip Ingram, a security consultant and the head of content of the International Security Expo, held each year at Olympia in London, is seen as ‘the gold standard’, exporting more than £7 billion worth of material and expertise. “The Middle East in particular loves taking all the standards and processes the UK has developed and applying them there,” he says.

The International Security Expo brings together some 250 exhibitors and attracts security companies, architects looking for the latest technologies to design into buildings and public spaces, and representatives of government organisations who, as Ingram puts it, “won’t necessarily hand you a business card”.

But the exhibits on display – perimeter intruder-detection systems, technical-surveillance countermeasures, buried intrusion detectors – hold a particular interest for that mysterious group known as ultra-high-net-worth individuals. Silicon Valley titans, Russian oligarchs, Middle Eastern potentates, lucky hedge-fund managers, the odd minted celebrity: if they’re not worrying about getting more money, they’re worrying about how to hold on to what they’ve got.

Earlier this year it was revealed that Facebook paid $23.4 million (£17 million) in 2020 to cover the security costs of its co-founder Mark Zuckerberg and his family, both at home and while travelling, in order to mitigate ‘identified specific threats’. Zuckerberg, who bought the four homes neighbouring his main residence in Palo Alto, California, to ensure his privacy, is guarded round the clock by armed protection officers and a security team that carries out a reconnaissance of wherever he is going, and he has bullet-resistant windows in his office.

There are few people who can match Zuckerberg’s £97 billion fortune – only Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk and Bernard Arnault and family, to be precise. But for the other 2,751 billionaires in the world – and those struggling along with only hundreds or tens of millions to their name, wealth brings not only luxury but also fear.

A recent survey by the property consultant Knight Frank revealed that London has the most so-called ‘prime’ homes of any city in the world, with more than 68,000 properties valued at £2 million-plus. Meanwhile, crime figures in the UK continue to rise. There were 299,868 reported burglaries in 2020, with robberies at 68,095 and vehicle crimes at 371,278. There has also been a huge increase in cyber attacks in the past year, with a 300 per cent year-on-year rise in ransomware episodes.

These are figures that inculcate a sense of rising unease among the rich. A recent survey of high-net-worth individuals, by the security company Chubb, showed that on average 28 per cent felt more vulnerable at home, at work and travelling than five years ago. And the single greatest fear was of violent home invasion.

“The world’s becoming a more threatening place,” says Jack Mann, who runs Alma Risk, a company specialising in personal protection. “People want to keep their families safe, and they’re prepared to go to pretty extravagant lengths to do that.” Just how extravagant might that be?

Imagine for a moment that you are that Indian billionaire or Russian oligarch – or perhaps one of the 52 Hong Kong residents newly arrived in Britain, fleeing China’s new state-security laws, who have been granted a so-called golden visa after promising to invest at least £2 million in the UK. You’ve bought your house in Kensington or Hampstead, but your pride and joy is your new estate in the Cotswolds – not far, perhaps, from the £6 million property owned by David and Victoria Beckham, which masked thieves attempted to burgle in 2018. You are often away making more money, leaving your wife or husband at home with the children. What to do?

Philip Dowds is the MD of Okto Technologies, which develops and instals smart systems in homes and businesses. For a ‘360 degree shield’ and to keep any threat ‘as far away as possible’, he suggests the following.

Firstly, there is perimeter defence, comprising three elements: radar, thermal cameras to pick up body heat, and underground pressure sensors detecting anyone jumping over the wall. All of these would be integrated into a smart system that would eliminate the possibility of a false alarm being triggered by a fox or a badger. Anyone attempting to smash through the main gate in a truck would be met with a reinforced steel door capable of withstanding an impact at 40mph.

In the unlikely event of a breach in the outer defences, Dowds says, the super-wealthy will probably have their own security team on hand. (The raid on the Beckhams’ home was averted after their security staff spotted the intruders on CCTV, but not before the invaders had propped a ladder up to peer into an upstairs bedroom.) Lacking that, the occupier would be woken by an alarm, and have a control pad on hand to activate high-intensity security lights – imagine going from total darkness to the floodlights in a football stadium – along with loudspeakers, set at 110 decibels (as loud as a riveting machine), barking out a warning message. All of which is designed to make the intruder back off.

In the meantime, those inside have retreated to the panic room (or ‘serenity room’, as Dowds prefers). The old-fashioned panic room, he says, would usually be a bathroom or other small space, suitably reinforced. “But if your wife and family are locked in a small bathroom and they think people are attacking them, they’re not going to be very calm.”

A ‘serenity room’, on the other hand, will be the master bedroom, or a similarly familiar and comfortable area, specially customised – the walls lined with Kevlar, the doors made of reinforced steel, the windows bulletproof. Just as important, he says, will be ‘fully diverse communication’: separate phone lines buried deep inside the building and running in different directions in case the burglars or kidnappers have cut the obvious lines, with Wi-Fi, 5G and satellite channels to the outside world. Scented candles and piped new-age music to soothe jangled nerves are optional.

Then there’s the drone threat. It is estimated that one third of all the world’s 10 million drone flights a year have a criminal element. The latest perimeter-protection technology can alert a homeowner or their security team when a drone is heading towards them. And those who want can apply for government permission to allow them to locate the pilot and jam the communication system, causing the drone to fail, while at the same time notifying the authorities of the pilot’s whereabouts.

A complete home-defence system costs up to £1 million. A more modest package of perimeter protection with thermal cameras and radar, the lights and speakers, and a direct connection to the police ‘won’t blow the budget,’ according to Dowds – at about £100,000. He is working on a security system costing £2 million for a London property worth more than £150 million, for a client who will be there for only five or six weeks a year.

Can he tell me where it is? Dowds laughs. “No.”

Camilla Dell, the founder of luxury property agent Black Brick, which deals in London homes worth up to £20 million, says she is often surprised at how little security there is in older properties coming on to the market. “In a lot of the houses around The Bishops Avenue and Hampstead Garden Suburb it’s often just a burglar alarm and old-fashioned iron bars at the window.

“Where I do see security taken quite seriously is if you’re looking at a house owned by somebody who potentially could be under physical threat.” Ultra-high-net-worth Russians, for example, Dell says, “will often have bulletproof doors”.

What is also unexpected, she adds, is how little “very wealthy, very successful business people” know about security. “They tend to think in very simplistic terms: is this neighbourhood safe; what’s the crime rate? Does it have electric gates? If those boxes are ticked, they often won’t think beyond that. We always advise them to get a security firm to look where the weaknesses are and come up with a plan.” Recently, Dell hired a security team just to accompany her on viewings with a prospective woman buyer “who was very much in the public eye, in a negative way”.

“Technology is moving so fast that even security systems fitted two years ago may be outdated,” says Mann, who served with the Household Cavalry in Iraq and Afghanistan before setting up Alma Risk. “You would need to instal a system that is hardwired into the structure of the house and to change all the locks and alarms, because whoever was previously working there – cleaners or caretakers – might have access to existing systems.”

Screening your own staff is essential, and so is keeping them happy. A large proportion of break-ins and security breaches can be traced to disgruntled current or former employees.

“It’s the same principle as running a hedge fund in Mayfair dealing with sensitive information,” Mann says. “Everyone goes home in the evening, the office cleaners come in and someone hasn’t logged off properly, there’s some stuff in the wastepaper basket or left on the whiteboard… Generally speaking, no one has any idea who’s cleaning their office.”

Sweeping a house for eavesdropping devices – technical-surveillance countermeasures – is “another tick on the list for a happy client”.

Even the security systems installed for your protection become a threat in the wrong hands. Baby monitors can be hacked by mischief makers – stories abound of distressed parents hearing a voice coming over the monitor issuing expletives and threats, and rushing into the room to find there’s nobody there except a soundly sleeping child. “High-net-worth individuals will tend to have the latest gadgets, and the latest gadgets have security risks associated with them,” says Ingram. “Your internet-connected television, toaster or fridge could give someone a route into your network, and sophisticated hackers use people’s own security systems to target when they’re not in the home. These things need to be set up properly.”

“There’s a lot of technology on the market, and you can bolster up your house like a castle if you want to,” says Dom Whitmore, the operations director of Alma Risk, who spent over 20 years in the British Army. “But for the most intelligent, determined and driven criminal, there is always a way to navigate through that.” When thieves stole a reported £25 million in jewellery from Tamara Ecclestone’s Kensington home in 2019, they were able to evade the security and spend an hour undisturbed breaking into bedroom safes.

“It’s the mitigating procedures a security organisation implements that do the real work, and those constantly need reviewing,” Whitmore says.

Kidnapping, particularly of children, is another fear. There were about 1,100 child-abduction offences recorded by the police in England and Wales in 2019/20, 161 fewer than the previous year. There are no figures to differentiate how many of these were the result of domestic or custody disputes rather than ransom attempts, which often go unreported after being settled privately.

The security market abounds with all manner of devices to keep track of children, from wrist-worn GPS trackers to chips that can be sewn into clothing. But, as Mann points out, they offer no guarantee of safety.

“Children change their clothes a lot. You’d have to have a hell of a lot of trackers. If a child is taken and the kidnapper suspects there’s a tracker, they’ll just [remove it from] their wrist or change the clothes. The real question is, who’s monitoring that tracker? And what happens after it’s activated?” GPS tracker implants remain the stuff of fiction; there are no trackers small enough to implant into a child, and even if there were, recharging the battery would present a problem.

And as for prized possessions: what’s wrong with keeping the Monet or Warhol in a safe, or stashed away in a Zurich free port, and hanging a replica on the wall to fool visitors? And why not do the same with jewellery, when you can commission almost identical replicas?

The F1 racing driver Lando Norris may think again about choosing a timepiece from his safe after he had his wristwatch, worth £40,000, stolen by a group of thugs as he was approaching his McLaren sports car following the Euro final at Wembley. Which is where close protection comes in. Typically, hiring a personal bodyguard can cost anywhere between £500 and £1,500 a day. The stereotype of a pair of heavily muscled, shaven-headed goons in black suits is only for Chechen arms dealers and wannabe A-listers aiming to draw attention to themselves. The best security companies employ personnel so discreet you wouldn’t know they were there at all.

“Close protection is a skill,” Whitmore says. “Experienced protection officers are always anticipating what their client is going to do and considering, ‘What if X happens?’ It’s the way they dress, the way they hold themselves; it’s being streetwise. If someone is out shopping they might want the close protection to keep their distance; if they’re walking their dog at 10.30 at night they prefer to keep them near, looking like a couple.”

The more ostentatious your wealth, the greater the risk. Those who are in the business of showing off, not to mention footballers with Instagram accounts displaying pictures of their homes and supercars, are a particularly inviting target for thieves. In March, the Everton and Sweden goalkeeper Robin Olsen was held at knifepoint in front of his wife and children when thieves broke into his Cheshire home, making off with jewellery and a watch. A few weeks earlier two masked men burgled the home of the Everton manager, Carlo Ancelotti, while his daughter was said to be alone inside.

The best protection is not necessarily to instal radar, but to remain below it.

 

By Melissa Lawford

Stamp duty savings have disappeared and the race for space is receding – is the housing market returning to normal?

The property market is at a crossroads. For the past year, homes have been selling quickly at sky high prices, while buyers have been battling an army of gazumpers.

But now pent-up demand has run its course and stamp duty holiday savings have all but disappeared. A chronic shortage of supply is bolstering prices, but the post-Covid frenzy is starting to dissipate.

London, where higher values meant buyers benefited from the biggest stamp duty savings, is changing first.

Property website Zoopla found that of the 15 postcodes that recorded the biggest drops in demand across Britain, 10 were in the capital.

It compared demand from April 5 to July 25, when buyers were unlikely to be able to take advantage of the original stamp duty holiday, with the preceding 16-week period when the tax break was boosting the market. It measured buyer demand using a combination of searches and inquiries.

In London’s SW and E postcodes buyer demand fell by 26.5pc. Cory Askew, of Chestertons estate agents, said: “The absolute peak of demand was at the end of March when the stamp duty holiday was extended”.

“Then there was a steady decline in inquiries through April, May and June – levels were much lower than in 2020, but higher than in 2019. It is a normalised market.”

In almost all cases in the top 15, buyer demand was still significantly above the average in the same period in 2017 to 2019. In south-west London, where a rush for space and gardens drove massive spikes in sales in the likes of Barnes and Kew, demand was still up 17pc on the pre-Covid level. But the numbers show a gear shift.

The race for space seems to be receding. In Camden, demand is transferring to flats, said Mr Askew. “That market is predominantly first-time buyers who are feeling a lot more secure in their job prospects.”

But other parts of the capital are grappling with problems that the stamp duty holiday rush previously concealed. In the EC postcode, which encompasses areas such as Shoreditch and the City of London, demand fell by 19.5pc, and is now 12.6pc below the 2017 to 2019 average. “The engine is the City, and most firms have given no mandate for workers to come back to the office full time,” Mr Askew said.

Polat Ali, of Hunters estate agents in Shoreditch, said: “We had the busiest June ever. But then July and the start of August was extremely quiet. We had two offers in five weeks. Usually we have five per month.”

Now that the time pressure of the stamp duty holiday has gone, the problems of the cladding crisis are also becoming more apparent. East London has a large concentration of high rise blocks and many flat sales simply cannot happen because lenders require external wall safety (EWS1) forms before they can offer mortgages. “Probably 20pc of properties we see we just won’t take on,” said Mr Ali.

Meanwhile, London developers are scrambling to fill the affordabilty gap left by the stamp duty cash savings. Peter Gibney, of JLL, a property firm, said that many are now offering to pay stamp duty bills in full.

In outer London areas, such as Twickenham and Enfield, demand also fell, but this dip was partly because the peak was so high. In Kingston-upon-Thames, demand fell 21.8pc between the two periods studied, but it was still up 96.5pc versus the pre-Covid average.

By contrast, in the most expensive areas of central London, which suffered heavily during the pandemic, demand is now rising as international travel restrictions lift.

Camilla Dell, of buying agent Black Brick, said: “For the first time in a year and a half, I’m meeting up with clients from Dubai, Qatar, Saudi Arabia. They are looking for holiday homes and good long-term investments in Mayfair, South Kensington, Knightsbridge and Chelsea.”

Outside London, demand also fell significantly in parts of the North East. Property prices in the region rose by 15.3pc in the year to June, the second-highest rate in the country, according to the Office for National Statistics.

In Newcastle upon Tyne and the Cleveland and Teesside, demand fell by 18.7pc and 18.5pc respectively. In Darlington, in County Durham, buyer demand fell by 27.1pc, the largest drop in the country. But the level of demand was still historically high – 53pc above the average in the same period across 2017 to 2019.

Emma Wick, of Bridgfords estate agents in Darlington, said there has been a dramatic change in who is buying. “Earlier in the year, the market was primarily driven by families who wanted or needed to move for more space.” These movers accounted for half the market 16 weeks ago.

“Now, everybody who wanted to move for homeworking or lifestyle changes has done so,” said Ms Wick. “The world is becoming a bit more normal.”

Home movers now account for only a fifth of sales, she said. Instead, investors, who had made up only 10pc of the market, now account for half of buyers.

A change in the type of homes for sale has been key, said Ms Wick. “Now a lot of the properties we are selling are empty. There has been an increase in mortgage repossessions, which were banned during the pandemic, and landlords are offloading rental stock because prices are at an all time high.”

By Liz Rowlinson

City living has suffered during the pandemic, but some village-like pockets have thrived

In the past year, many of us who live in towns or cities have been forced to embrace a more local way of life. Working from home, we’ve become regulars at our local coffee shops, or at neighbourhood businesses we rarely used before, patronising those on our doorstep instead of rushing off to the office for a Pret al desko.

This idea of communities that offer everything we need within a quarter of an hour’s walk, without getting in a car – the so-called “15-minute city” – is the dream of many town planners. It has been created anew in the community of Poundbury in Dorset, championed by the Prince of Wales, and is being sketched out in Fawley Waterside, a project it inspired on the site of a former power station in Southampton.

Prince Charles embraced the term “urban village” 20 years ago, yet there are dozens of vibrant villages within cities that have evolved organically. Many have become highly desirable places to live, even before the pandemic accentuated the appeal of “staying local”.

Properties in such areas can cost nearly double the average house price of their city, according to data from estate agency Savills. While the current property boom has been characterised by buyers fleeing urban life for more rural or suburban areas, small pockets of cities are holding their own.

Frances Clacy, of Savills, said: “Rather than turn their backs on the ambience and amenities of the city altogether, there are signs that some buyers want the best of both worlds.” Here, we find some of the best 15-minute cities.

Manchester

Just four miles south of the city centre is Didsbury, an area that is big enough to offer more than the one village. While East Didsbury is the most affordable option, there is also Didsbury Village and West Didsbury. In the latter, the average house price is £336,494, according to Savills.

Helen Tabor and her family have lived in the area for 12 years. “West Didsbury is more bohemian, with many independent shops on Burton Road, while the Village is more family-orientated,” she said.

With three parks, good schools, sports clubs and the famous “Didsbury Dozen” pubs, there is enough on the village’s doorstep to make the 40-minute peak-time drive into the centre of Manchester a rare event. “During lockdown, sitting outside the café in Fletcher Moss Park along the river has helped us keep our sanity,” said Mrs Tabor, 50.

There are plenty of late Victorian homes to choose from, with two-bedroom flats for sale from around £400,000, three-bedroom semis at £550,000 and new detached six-bedroom houses up to £2.45m. These prices are far higher than comparable suburbs around Manchester.

Sheffield

West of Sheffield city centre are the villages of Dore and Totley. Here, buyers pay a hefty premium to live in this ancient rural enclave on the edge of the Peak District that is popular with families for the Ofsted “Outstanding” rated schools (local resident and Olympic athlete Jessica Ennis-Hill is an alumna of King Ecgbert secondary).

Dore and Totley have all the amenities necessary to make sure you rarely have to leave: pubs, Indian restaurants, the all-important fish and chip shop, a hairdresser and a car mechanic. A train from Dore and Totley Station is only six minutes into Sheffield.

Katrina Wooltorton rents in Dore with her boyfriend, Jon, who has recently graduated from university. “Within five minutes, you are into Ecclesall Woods, or it’s only 10 to the village of Hathersage, sitting in the beautiful Hope Valley in the Peak District,” said Ms Wooltorton, 23. “We love the community feel of Dore.”

However, it’s not great for first-time buyers. “When we buy our first home, it will need to be in a more affordable area – such as the village of Dronfield – before we hope to move back again.”

To buy a small detached house, you’ll need £450,000, according to James Ross, of agent Eadon Lockwood & Riddle. “We are seeing a lot more buyers from down south. The market for three-bedroom houses at £350,000 to £500,000 is really strong, but you can pay up to £2m.”

Bristol

In northern Bristol, separated from fashionable Clifton by the thoroughfare of Whiteladies Road, is Redland, another popular village within a city. Chandos Road is cherished for its restaurant scene, although the Michelin-starred Wilks has shut permanently because of the pandemic.

Good local schools will continue to draw families, said Francine Watson, of estate agent Knight Frank. “You get more for your money, plus bigger gardens and more off-street parking in Redland than in Clifton,” she said. Family homes cost £600,000 to £1.4m.

London

The capital is fringed with urban villages that have recorded some of the highest levels of activity within the city during the pandemic. Camilla Dell of Black Brick, a buying agency, said: “Buyers that might have bought in central London have been looking at Richmond-upon-Thames, Kew, Wimbledon, Chiswick, Hampstead, East Sheen and Dulwich. Access to parks has become more crucial.”

Dulwich, in south-east London, has been especially popular since the pandemic started, although the area has always been in demand, with house prices steadily growing.

The average property value in the area grew 1,150pc between 1995 and 2017, which was the highest in the UK, according to Knight Frank.

The area has an abundance of parks, and while the hub of Dulwich Village has Gail’s Bakery and the Crown and Greyhound pub, there are more shops and restaurants along Lordship Lane in nearby East Dulwich.

A good choice of independent schools is another draw, but state options such as the Charter School North Dulwich and Dulwich Hamlet Junior School are also pulling buyers from outside the area, said Christoper Burton, of Knight Frank. “The family house market in Dulwich Village is around £1.4m, but you get more value for money in East Dulwich, where there are plenty of smaller Victorian terraces from £700,000.”

Further west, sandwiched between the River Thames and the green spaces of Sheen Common and Richmond Park, is East Sheen. It has everything you may need: a Waitrose, a library, cafés such as Valentina Italian Deli and great schools, which is just as well as this area of west London is not very well connected.

Demand for East Sheen Primary and Sheen Mount Primary keeps property prices up, and values are higher “Parkside” – close to Richmond Park, said Michael Randall, of Savills.

“You’ll pay over £1.2m for a four-bedroom family house in the school catchment areas, or £1.7m to £2.5m for one of the bigger Edwardian houses near Richmond Park,” he said.

“But people love this area as you tend to get bigger gardens and more lateral space than in nearby Barnes or Richmond. Buyers coming out of central London like the slightly slower pace of life.” And it looks like they will pay a premium for it, too.

Will it be a £66m penthouse or a two-bed home on a remote Greek island? Experts predict what the ultra rich will be investing in for 2021

By Zoe Dare Hall

After a tumultuous year, what lies in store for London’s prime property market in 2021? And where will the wealthy be looking to invest? The experts share their knowledge.

London calling

For many City workers no longer needed at their desks, 2020 was about an escape to the country. 2021 will see the reverse, thinks Camilla Dell, managing partner at Black Brick buying agency. “Half of them stayed commutable in the Home Counties. The other half moved to Somerset, which is risky if you are suddenly called back to your desk at 8am tomorrow,” says Dell.

Most didn’t sell up in London, though; they just bought the country house too – which is just as well because in 2021, “the masses will flood back to the city,” Dell adds.

Post-Covid – or, at least, post-vaccine – London will also see the return of overseas buyers. For UK buyers with serious money, their absence currently opens up opportunities in prime central areas such as Mayfair and Belgravia. “Apartment prices in central London’s golden postcodes have fallen by 8.2% in five years and houses are down by 1%. There are no viewings taking place and none of the usual audience is here. But by next summer, it will be more competitive again,” says Dell.

Some foreign buyers will feel compelled to tie up purchases before that, though, as April sees the introduction of an extra 2% stamp duty for non-UK residents. “We currently have two overseas UHNW buyers who are unwilling to travel at the moment. One has a budget of £40m-£60m for a family house, so will save at least £1m if he buys before April,” says Marc Schneiderman, Director at Arlington Residential in St John’s Wood.

Wealthy UK-based buyers are keeping the super-prime market ticking over nicely until foreign buyers can travel again, though. “Despite the vaccine, expect more house moves, upgrades and a continued search for space in 2021,” says Liam Bailey, global head of research at Knight Frank. “London is seeing a surge in demand for larger houses. The £10m+ market is very strong and this strength will continue into 2021.”

End-user buyers will be looking for areas with easy access for weekend escape – given many have invested in holiday homes in England instead of abroad this year. That trend is already in evidence Television Centre in White City, where a number of owners flee to their Cotswolds homes every Friday. Flats in the latest Architects Series cost from £3.4m through Savills.

East London is also “one to watch”, says Camilla Dell – and handy for a weekend home on the Suffolk coast. “People who wanted to live in leafy parts of north London – especially those working in the media or tech – now prefer to be East,” says Dells. Long & Waterson in Shoreditch – with apartments from £715,000-£2.16m through Savills – is just the kind of new development they’ll like, she thinks.

Ultra-prime London launches

London has its fair share of landmark schemes launching, or completing, in 2021 – and views over Hyde Park are a common theme.

Mayfair Park Residences sees the world’s first Dorchester Collection homes, with Clivedale’s scheme of 25 apartments and townhouses on Park Lane – priced from £4.25m – overlooking Hyde Park. They have access to the adjacent Dorchester hotel’s services, whether it’s 2am mojitos delivered to your door, use of the 10,000 sq ft health club, or dinner at Wolfgang Puck’s first European restaurant, CUT.

On the park’s Bayswater side, Fenton Whelon’s Park Modern sees 57 new one-to-six bedroom residences overlooking the park and Kensington Palace Gardens. Prices start at £1.95m through Knight Frank.

And in late Spring, expect completion of the £66m penthouse at The Bryanston, Almacantar’s new super-prime parkside scheme in Marble Arch. Other apartments in the high-rise designed by Rafael Viñoly start at £2.6m.

Among the historic landmarks undergoing transformation is The OWO, formerly known as The Old War Office, which will be home to London’s first Raffles hotel and 85 Raffles-branded residences. No prices have been released yet, but with its historical pedigree, prime St James’s location and kudos of being Raffles’ first ever branded scheme, these will be properties to watch.

The Herculean task of reinventing Battersea Power Station reaches a pivotal point in Spring 2021, as it’s when the first residents will move into the reinvented Grade II* listed Power Station. The development also sees the opening of the new Northern Line tube station in Autumn.

Brand new but inspired by the Georgian proportions of Thomas Cubbit’s historic Belgravia homes that surround it, Qatari Diar’s Chelsea Barracks launches its townhouse collection, with the six-storey properties priced from £38m. Each house features a swimming pool that runs under the entire length of the garden, and some have their own mews house.

Alpine hotspots

In early 2020, ski resorts were considered Ground Zero for Covid in Europe, but in 2021 they will be among the hottest places to invest. What we buy – and how we use it – is changing, though.

While old-style après-ski is out of the question because of the virus, buyers want to bring the party back home, so large private chalets are in hot demand, “especially those with five-star entertaining areas and wellness facilities,” says Giles Gale, founding director at Alpine Property Finders. With the catered chalet model also largely impossible, and the communal aspect of hotels out of favour, in-chalet/apartment hotel services are on the rise, says Gale. He suggests Manali Lodge in Courchevel 1650, a new luxury apart-hotel residence, where three-bed apartments cost from €2.02m.

Ski properties aren’t just for Christmas any more, either. Month-long or even entire-season stays will become more popular next year, with work-from-home culture rife among wealthy digital nomads on the slopes, says Jeremy Rollason, head of Savills Ski. Many will seek a large, lateral rental apartment first, so they can try before they buy.

Buyers shouldn’t expect many bargains in the leading resorts, though. “Covid has increased our appreciation for the natural environment and prices in the top 10 resorts have increased by an average of 7.2% this year, despite the pandemic,” says Rollason. Courchevel 1850 tops the prime price league at €25,000/m2 – making it 60% more expensive than prime Paris.

For price growth and new development opportunities, Knight Frank tip the French Alpine resort of Saint-Martin-de-Belleville in 2021, overtaking last year’s winner, Val d’Isere. The small Swiss resorts of Grimentz and Champery will also be in demand, says Knight Frank’s head of Swiss Alpine sales, Alex Koch de Gooreynd. “International buyers are looking at Switzerland as a permanent base because of its handling of the crisis and the lifestyle it offers. The appeal of owning a Swiss property is now strengthening too with interest rates negative and Swiss banks effectively charging clients to store their capital,” he says.

Hotspots for sun, sand and sea lovers

Marbella is ensuring it looms large on the super-rich radar in 2021 with the launch of Epic Marbella, Fendi Casa’s first ever European scheme of branded residences. The 56 apartments of up to 1,000m2, plus 400m2 terraces with private pools, cost from €2.5m-€7.5m and sit on a prime seaview spot on the Golden Mile, near Puerto Banus. There are Fendi touches throughout, from logoed wardrobe handles to rugs, and the five-star amenities include the biggest swimming pool in a European residential development, according to developer Carlos Rodriguez of Sierra Blanca Estates.

Barbados has also sealed its place in the spotlight in the coming year as the 2020 launch of its Barbados Welcome Stamp – a 12-month work visa, costing $2,000 per person and aimed at digital nomads – has proved a big PR coup for the island. So far, three quarters of international relocators are first-time visitors to the Caribbean island and aged under 45, according to Terra Caribbean.

For those seduced into buying, Apes Hill, under new ownership, re-opens in November after a £24m upgrade. It promises to be “the best golfing experience in the Caribbean” and include a new club house, a fitness and paddle sports centre, farm shop and three/four bed villas from £1.15m.

Greece is also garnering a reputation as a UHNW hotspot with such five-star branded schemes as Amanzoe – where two-bed villas cost from €3.2m and – launching in 2021, by the same developers, Dolphin Capital, in partnership with Kerzner International – the One&Only Resort on Kea Island, with turnkey two-bed homes from €3m. The Kilada Country Club, near Amazone in Porto Heli, is another Dolphin Capital resort on its way, with 260 golf residences set around a Jack Nicklaus course.

Greece also offers the most affordable Golden Visa programme in Europe – newly-relevant to British investors as we wave goodbye to the EU.

By Melissa Lawford

Premiership players with budgets of £15,000 per month are finding it difficult to rent in the footballer zone south-west of London

Footballers in the Home Counties are having to move into hotels ahead of the new season as the supply of high-end rental homes has dried up.

Alex McLean, head of the sports team at Knight Frank’s relocation services business, said that a lack of pricey properties to rent along the A3 corridor out of south-west London means “a lot of players are ending up in hotels”.

Accommodation budgets of Premiership players, who often opt to rent, especially at the start of their club contracts, often exceed £15,000 a month, said Mr McLean. But the pandemic has shrunk local supply in their favoured towns, which include Oxshott, Esher and Cobham in Surrey.

This means that newly-signed players, such as Thiago Silva and Ben Chilwell who are moving to Chelsea, may find it difficult to rent a property near the club’s training ground in Cobham.

James Dodds of Grosvenor Billinghurst, a Surrey estate agent, said: “I can’t remember a time when there was this much movement in the super high-end rental market.” Footballers in these areas also have to compete with wealthy workers at nearby tech firms.

The post-lockdown property “mini-boom”, driven by Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s stamp duty holiday and a shift to working from home, means that many high-end homeowners are taking the opportunity to sell their homes now while prices are high, and renting until prices fall when the impact of the recession bites. The sales market had been sluggish for several years before the pandemic.

In the three months to August, the number of homes worth more than £5m for sale outside central London doubled compared to the same period in 2019, according to Knight Frank.

Meanwhile, between April and August in the south-west corridor, which includes areas such as Ascot and Cobham, the number of high-end rental properties coming to the market fell by 20pc compared to the same period in 2019. For homes renting for more than £15,000 per month, the number fell by 55pc. 

The footballer zone along the A3 is an anomaly: across London and the Home Counties, over the same period, the number of overall rental listings jumped by 28pc year-on-year. 

Within the capital, the contrast is even more stark. Camilla Dell, of Black Brick, a buying agency, said landlords who have recently renewed tenancy agreements in London have had to accept 10pc and 20pc rent reductions. “Flats without outside space are faring the worst,” she added.

There is more demand than usual from footballers to rent big homes in this area, and some are moving there because they want more green space after lockdown. “Chelsea has spent a lot of money on new players, but there are also footballers for the London clubs who have decided to move out this way,” said Mr Dodds.

There is new demand for pricey rental homes in this area from footballers at south London clubs such as Crystal Palace and Millwall as well as Chelsea, Fulham and south coast teams such as Bournemouth and Southampton, said Mr Dodds.

The footballers looking to rent now are late to the trend. When the pandemic started, “there was a snap reaction from some very, very wealthy Londoners to rent a Surrey mansion,” said Mr Dodds. 

“We had a chap where there wasn’t a figure for a budget, we were trying to negotiate him renting a whole hotel and its cottage in the grounds. The deal was going into a couple of hundred thousand pounds a month,” said Mr Dodds.

But while demand for luxury rentals has spiked, supply has dropped.