30th April 2026
10mins
Superficially, the latest data from prime London property analyst LonRes looks grim; the number of deals struck on London property in March has plunged by a resounding 41 per cent year on year.
In reality, the truth of the situation is more nuanced. Last March was an artificially busy time in the market as buyers rushed to push sales through before changes in Stamp Duty. But at least some of the blame for the drop must be blamed on anxiety about both the war in the Middle East and the rising cost of borrowing it has triggered.
The lack of proactive buyers means that the number of vendors forced to cut prices is also up, 19 per cent compared to the same period in 2025, while sale prices are down 5.5 per cent, reports LonRes.
Simultaneously, new homes are flowing onto the market, which is currently almost 14 per cent higher than it was last year.
Whilst this might suggest that buyers will have a surfeit of homes to consider, not every property listing is equal, warns Camilla Dell, managing partner of Black Brick.
“It does not feel like there is a glut of property to us,” she said. “That is because we are always looking for really amazing, best in class, special homes, and there are never enough of them.”
Despite the LonRes figures, Black Brick has been signing up a steady stream of new buyers all year. They are mainly split into two groups. People looking for main homes – a mixture of British buyers alongside international relocators from Europe, the United States, and Australia – and American buyers looking for a bolthole in the British capital.
Seven months after it last predicted the progress that London’s prime markets will make over the next five years, estate agent Knight Frank has revised those forecasts in a downward direction.
Citing a “triple headwind” made up of higher mortgage rates, softer buyer sentiment, and Middle East conflict, the firm has downgraded its expectation for PCL. It continues to expect prices will flatline this year, but has reduced its growth projections for the next three years, cutting its 2027 forecast from three to two per cent growth, 2028 from five to four per cent growth, and 2029 from six to five per cent. However, it does believe that 2029 will bring seven per cent growth, adding up to a cumulative increase of more than 18 per cent.
Tom Kain, a partner at Black Brick, agrees that any growth in PCL will be cautious, and not only because of the international situation. History shows that political change hits central London hard and with an election slated for May 2028 and incumbent Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer under the cosh over the Peter Mandelson debacle, he fears buyers will soon start worrying about what could come next.
“If we look back, it is always politics which has the biggest impact on prices in London – not Covid, not Brexit, not the financial crisis, but changes to Stamp Duty, the end of the Non Dom tax system, concerns about mansion tax,” said Kain.
Knight Frank expects the impact on Prime Outer London (POL) to be a little more muted. This year, instead of the two per cent growth it forecast in September 2025, it thinks prices will remain flat thanks to more expensive mortgage borrowing. And in 2027, it anticipates growth of two, rather than three per cent. But from 2028 onward, it feels its 2025 forecast will stand, with A growth of 3.5 per cent in 2028, four per cent in 2029, and six per cent in 2030 – a cumulative jump of around 19 per cent.
Last year, the film director George Lucas, paid £40m for a home in London. With that sort of budget, he could have lived anywhere, but the Star Wars legend chose St John’s Wood, cementing its reputation as a go-to haven for the world’s rich and famous.
And new research by estate agent Hamptons based on Land Registry sales data, shows that NW8 has seen the strongest price growth of any neighbourhood within London’s Zone 1 and 2 transport zones – up 15 per cent in the past year, and 21 per cent since the race for space peak of the market in 2021.
An average house in St John’s Wood now costs some £6.6m, while an apartment typically trades at just under £2.2m.
Despite these average prices, Dell believes that St John’s Wood’s appeal is partly its relative value for money – when compared to Mayfair, Belgravia, or Marylebone.
“It is one of the few places in London where, if you are looking for a family house, you will get a proper garden, and maybe off-street parking too. According to data from LonRes, achieved house prices in Q1 2026 for a 4 bedroom plus house, are still under £1500 per sq. foot compared to almost £2300 in Knightsbridge and Belgravia,” said Dell.
As well as beautiful period villas, St John’s Wood has a village atmosphere with a great high street, lots of parks and open space on the doorstep, and excellent schools – notably the American School in London – plus proximity to the high-performing independent schools of Hampstead and Highgate.
“And while you might not be in Zone 1, you are still very, very central with good train links to the City and Canary Wharf,” added Dell.
One thing NW8 does not have much of, is high end new developments, but this insufficiency will be countered when the new homes at the area’s former military barracks go on sale. The site, renamed St John’s Wood Square, is being repurposed as a modern 5.5-acre garden square with 120 homes, plus a private residents’ club within the restored riding arena where members of The King’s Troop Royal Horse Artillery, based at the barracks for more than 100 years, once trained.
The first homes are expected to be completed in 2028, with full completion in 2029.
It is a fact of life that not all property deals go the distance. An offer accepted on a handshake means little, and according to new research from property analyst TwentyCi, no less than 27 per cent of agreed sales collapse before completion across inner London.
Part of the reason for this is the extreme slowness of the system. From the point at which an offer is accepted, it takes more than four months to ink a deal and this gives plenty of time for buyer remorse to set in or for problems to emerge up or down the chain. “When a market is uncertain, it does cause buyers to be a lot more cautious,” said Dell.
Happily, Black Brick’s fall through rate is close to zero. “We have not had a single sale fall through this year, despite what has been going on around us,” said Dell. She puts this success rate down to the research and due diligence done before an offer is made – buyers feel confident they are offering a fair price for a good quality property that will suit their needs perfectly.
And while solo buyers might be forgiven for getting spooked by what they see as bad news in a survey, Black Brick can cut through the jargon and be clear about whether a flaw in a property is par for the cause or whether renegotiation is required.
Renegotiations are, of course, a very delicate matter, but Black Brick’s tact and excellent relationship with London’s prime agents means that they can be carried out without derailing a sale completely.
Our clients were a British family who had been renting in this buzzy west London suburb for several years. Their lease was about to end and they felt that the strong buyers’ market that exists in London, would make it a great time to buy.
Because they knew the area very well, they had a hit list of specific streets they were interested in, and they needed to move fast because of their expiring lease.
Although in general terms they were right about market conditions, Chiswick has been bucking the trend. During 2025, its prices grew by just over nine per cent, as buyers flocked to busy, well serviced neighbourhoods with green space, good schools, and excellent transport links.
We were able to get them in to see a 3,146 sq ft house in the desirable, peaceful, and leafy Bedford Park area of Chiswick before it had even gone on the market. Given the heat in the local market, we advised them to bid the asking property to secure the property against a rival buyer and avoid a bidding war.
The sale price worked out to less than £1,200 per sq. ft and they were in their new home before their lease expired.
Our British clients have a main home out of town, but work in central London and wanted a pied-a-terre convenient for their office in Victoria.
They were keen to find a period flat with two or three bedrooms and, because they have two dogs, the property needed to be in a pet-friendly building.
We found them a beautiful lateral flat in “Old Chelsea”, close to the River Thames. The flat stretches across two redbrick buildings, giving wonderful lateral space. When we found the flat, it had just had a price cut – nonetheless, we were able to shave off another £85,000 to secure the property for just over £1,800 per square foot.
Our client had the following to kind words to say about their experience working with us:
“Excellent – from start to finish.
Very strong sourcing of properties, filtered to show only the best, efficient and flexible arranging visits, strong technical skills to advise, excellent advice and management during negotiation process – they found us a lovely apartment and saved us money! Last but not least Tom was a real pleasure to work with – professional and personable.”
When our clients bought this magnificent seven bedroom house, close to all of South Hampstead’s amenities, they believed it would be their forever home.
However, a career opportunity in Singapore changed their plans and they ended up as accidental landlords, renting the property out.
After renting the circa 7,677 sq. ft house for several years, they decided they would like to sell up and came to Black Brick to help manage a discreet off market sale via our managed sale service.
Their timing was not brilliant – the Labour Government was still bedding in, economic indicators were poor, and there were widespread fears about the possibility of a Mansion Tax being introduced in the November budget.
On the plus side, the house itself was well finished and – once the tenants had moved out – went down well with buyers, thanks to its stylish design and extras including a large garden, swim spa, gym, sauna, cinema, and playroom.
We liaised closely with our clients, agreeing to drop the asking price of the house in order to drum up more interest in it. Having done so, offers started to roll in and the owners were happy to accept an offer of £7.125m. This was more than they had paid for it back in 2018, despite the fact that the underlying market had fallen around them since then.
We would be delighted to hear from you to discuss your own property requirements. For a non-obligatory consultation, please contact us.
