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Up on the Roof

Derek Cunnington gazed out over the low-slung London skyline from atop an eight-story apartment building and liked what he saw.

“When you’re up here, you can see lots of opportunities,” said Mr. Cunnington, owner of U.K. property developer Dekra Developments.

The flat roof of Grove End Gardens, which overlooks the crosswalk on the Beatles’ famous Abbey Road album cover, is a construction site. In 18 months, Dekra will have built six luxury penthouses on top of the 1935 brick building.

Some developers are taking a novel approach to finding new building sites in crowded central London, where period homes are prized: They are adding penthouses on top of existing buildings.

London faces a housing crisis defined by the lack of centrally located homes. Its growing population requires 42,000 new homes built each year for the next 20 years, according to the office of Mayor Boris Johnson. Demand pushed the average London house price up 13.2% in January compared with the same month in 2012, the U.K.’s national statistics agency said. The housing boom is making rooftop construction more feasible.

Overseas buyers are willing to pay a premium for these newly built penthouse properties, which are rare in London, said Camilla Dell, managing partner at Black Brick, a real-estate buying agency for which foreign buyers account for 60% of the business. These buyers prefer to have modern conveniences, such as underground parking, gyms and high-tech security, Ms. Dell said.

The New Look of London

Dekra has built about 20 penthouses in London in the past seven years. The Abbey Road development, from planning to finished product, will be nearly four years in the making and cost up to $50 million.

When complete, the building will feature underground parking, elevators that bypass nonpenthouse residents, branded fixtures and iPad-controlled utilities. When buyers arrive for their first night in their new home, they will find a refrigerator and pantry stocked with food from their homeland.

About 20% to 30% of the Dekra project will be completed in a factory, Mr. Cunnington said. This modular building style means major structural aspects of the building are prefabricated, including the steel frame.

After construction in the factory, this exoskeleton will be broken into parts and trucked to the site. A giant industrial elevator will lift the pieces to the top of the building.

Dekra doesn’t use cranes. The firm uses a special machine to knock down brickwork on the roof, as opposed to a jackhammer. There is no scaffolding. This style of work costs more, and takes more time, but is meant to be out of sight, with nuisances kept to a minimum, Mr. Cunnington said.

The developer will also make overall improvements to the building, which he says will benefit existing residents. New elevators will be installed, reception areas will be renovated and a parking garage will be built under the back garden, which will be upgraded.

So far, existing residents of Grove End Gardens haven’t voiced major complaints. “I really didn’t want to trust him. He’s a developer, after all,” said David Burr, who chairs the building’s residents association. “But he has been true to his word.”

Dekra has finished two other penthouses in St. John’s Wood. They include a three-bedroom with a wraparound balcony built on an eight-story property—sold to a British buyer for $20 million—and a two-bedroom finished last year on a seven-story building that is now listed for $4.3 million.

First Penthouse, another London developer building new penthouses on existing properties, takes a different approach to construction. The company finishes 90% of the penthouse in a factory before loading it on the back of a truck, and lifting it to a rooftop with a crane, says Hakan Olsson, the company’s owner. First Penthouse is set to finish a project in the trendy Shoreditch neighborhood at the end of April. After that, a bigger penthouse is scheduled to be built near the Thames in the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea, to be listed at more than $6.6 million.

Aside from costs and engineering, rooftop projects are limited by planning permissions. In the City of Westminster—where St. John’s Wood is located—about 80% of buildings fall within a conservation area, meaning “they generally won’t get penthouses built on them,” said Rosemarie MacQueen, strategic director for the built environment at Westminster. Planning laws protect access to sunlight in homes, as well as privacy from new windows peering into older ones, known as overlooking.

Another hurdle: Some buyers might be turned off by the melding of old and new construction. Ms. Dell at Black Brick said the first things potential buyers see when they go to view a penthouse is the older building under it. “Yes, people will pay premium for new-builds. Yes, they’ll pay premium for a penthouse. But because the penthouse is new doesn’t mean they’ll like the rest being old,” Ms. Dell said.

Super Tanks

Bespoke aquaria may have the wow factor, but they can be as high maintenance as their celebrity owners, by Zoe Dare Hall

Thierry Henry wanted a four-storey one that would require a complete rebuild of his London home (a project that’s still on hold), fellow footballer Stephen Ireland commissioned one with an in-built computer and Fijian reef, while other celebrities – the late Alexander McQueen was one – favour those that double up as headboards for their beds.

Bespoke, super-sized aquaria are becoming a popular feature in the homes of the rich and famous and some will pay up to £1m for one that is truly unique, such as the 18-metre long “shark tank” requested by one Knightsbridge-based client of Aquarium Architecture, a specialist in such matters.

“Fish tanks famously have a therapeutic quality. They are also an emotional investment, rather like fine wine, with a direct correlation between fish rarity and value”, says Adrian Black, director of YOUHome estate agency.

But for Roland Horne, Aquarium Architecture’s co-founder whose clients include sports stars (cricketer Kevin Pietersen has just commissioned one “with sea horses and a real wow factor” for his latest venture, a children’s hairdressers), Emirati royal families and the former NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg, having a huge, exotic aquarium in your living room is all about “power and control”, says Horne. “There’s partly the luxury travel association – a lot of people have been diving in the Maldives or own a home there and want to recreate the feel. But I think a lot of the psychology of aquaria stems from a fascination for growing and controlling something from scratch. It’s a very male thing – although Russian women also seem to like them too.”

In the US, big is best – and if it hugs the bed or frames a few TV screens, even better. “The Americans like fake plastic corals and big predatory fish. They can look impressive, but the fish don’t look very happy,” says Horne. In Dubai, designer Daniel Kostuic of Intarya designed a jellyfish aquarium that wrapped around an awkwardly-placed pillar. Europeans, on the other hand, prefer a more authentic aquascape, “replicating what is found out there in the wild and generally set more discreetly against a wall,” says Horne.

Saltwater aquaria have traditionally been most popular, “as everyone wants a few ‘Nemo’ fish, which means having saltwater coral,” says Horne, whose clients typically spend £80,000-£100,000 on an aquarium. But the Japanese art of “iwagumi”,, which focuses on artistically-cut stones and plants, rather than the fish, has persuaded more people to look at the freshwater option – which cost about half the price to install and maintain.

While pretty to look at, a home aquarium – especially of the scale and exoticness that wealthy buyers are demanding – requires constant attention, with some specialist designers offering 24-hour maintenance services and the average big tank needing about three visits a week at £100 a pop. And while the tank itself may be beautiful, the mechanics behind it, including huge tanks of water, cables and pumps, are a less desirable addition to the interior design.

Done well, an aquarium can look like a stylish addition to a home. The upmarket home-builders Octagon, for example, have installed a few super-sized aquaria in their custom-built properties recently, including one set within a specially-commissioned tinted mirror. Done badly, though, and “it can all look a bit James Bond,” says Alec Watt, CEO of Accouter Design, who mentions one client who wanted an underfloor aquarium populated by small sharks.

Having a one-off aquarium won’t add value to your home, according to David Adams, MD of John Taylor London, but it will spark buyers’ interest and look pretty in your sales brochure. Be aware that its presence can also deter prospective buyers, though, if it visibly requires a lot of maintenance and your property is likely to be a little-used second home.

“I saw one example in Belgrave Square where the floor had been reinforced to contain one of the most extravagant aquaria ever seen. The owner had staff who checked on the property every few weeks and got it ready for his returns from international travels. Each time, he had to restock the aquaria at huge expense as all the fish had died,” says Ed Tryon from Lichfields buying agency, who adds that while these fancy fish tanks are increasing in popularity, “they certainly polarise buyers”.

“Avoid them. Modern art is a much better alternative,” advises Camilla Dell from Black Brick buying agency. But a large clutch of fish-loving celebrities, including the Beckhams and Madonna, and top-end developers such as Candy & Candy and Finchatton would disagree.

Home Smart Home

Car stacking systems or fingerprint recognition technology? A fizzy water tap or underfloor heating? High-techery is the future for luxury homes, but what buyers value most is security and practicality by Zoe Dare Hall

Even on Surrey’s Wentworth Estate, where exquisite mansions routinely sell for several million (only for their insides to be ripped out and re-designed), Waterford House stands out for the lengths its owners have gone to with their in-house technology.

This showcase of electronic wizardry starts with the electric entrance gates whose keyless entry pads are programmed with different codes for each person (a handy way to keep an eye on when staff start and finish) to huge rooms where every mood is controlled by Lutron electronic panels. Beside the master bed are touch screens that run the bath – from the ceiling.

“Buyers have the perception that houses should be loaded with these kinds of intelligent systems – though if you are selling a place like this, you don’t necessarily need all the gadgets, just the wiring so the buyer can bolt on whatever they want,” says Rupert Wyatt from Barton Wyatt, which is marketing Waterford House for £4.25m.

There is no doubt that high-techery is the future for luxury homes: taps that dispense not just boiling or chilled but also fizzy water, kaleidoscopic systems that play music and films from anywhere in the house (or, indeed, your second or third homes) and car stacking systems that enable you to park multiple vehicles in one space.

This week, Samsung has announced its new push into the realm of home technology so smart it could be a paid-up member of Mensa. That means touchscreen washing machines that can assess how dirty your washing is – and then tell you on your iPhone when it’s clean – and gadgets that “understand our needs and put us in control”, according to Samsung’s chief executive BK Yoon.

But how much high-tech is desirable and when does it simply become daunting? Its purpose is to make life easier. But while the next generation, who are weaned on iPads, will feel at home in a place that runs entirely on touchscreen technology, however smart and successful today’s buyers are, there are many who simply can’t get to grips with a home that has fingerprint recognition screens instead of any visible switches, knobs or buttons to push.

“As technology becomes more intuitive, the fear of it is lessening,” says Peter Mackie from Property Vision buying agency. “Fingerprint recognition technology has only been used in a handful of properties at the very top end and is generally only used as a point of differentiation to highlight the enhanced specification.”

Separate handsets and media system controls have become outdated; now everything can be managed through one iPad. In the “Smart App-artment”, a showcase home in central London designed by technology company Cornflake, there are Lutron automated blinds which memorise, and imitate, your usage pattern to deter burglars when you’re away.

“The gadget all buyers love at the moment is glass which at the press of a button becomes opaque for privacy,” says David Adams, MD of John Taylor London, who has had to provide his own retina scans and fingerprints to gain access to some of the properties he is marketing. One such seven-storey house, South End in Kensington on sale for £13.75m, has a swimming pool that converts into a dance floor, a car lift and his and hers panic rooms.

But what buyers want more than anything from their fancy technology is security and practicality. That means electronic gates and cameras, secure parking (including one instance of a suede-lined garage to prevent scratches when opening the car door, says Camilla Dell from Black Brick buying agency) and underfloor heating. “Radiators take up too much wall space and prevent the owner from hanging art,” says Dell.

And more important than any gadget, she says, are the fundamentals – the overall quality of the property, materials, fixtures and fittings. Jo Eccles from Sourcing Property agrees. “Buyers should be looking at the property’s location and potential, not focusing on the technology, which can date quickly,” she says. “A stellar concierge service will trump luxury gadgets every time.”

Black Brick closes in on £0.5bn milestone

It’s not easy to find out just how much business the UK’s top buying agencies are doing these days. Estimates vary wildly – and there’s no shortage of bluster – so it’s interesting when one of the big players tots up its figures over the last few years.

Seven years after launching from a loft in North London, Camilla Dell’s Black Brick claims to be closing in on a whopping £500m-worth of property acquired for its clients to date, racing to nearly £100m-worth in this financial year alone.

In all, there’s been nearly 200 deals made by the team since 2007, with 71% of the client base buying as owner-occupiers and the rest as investors; 75% are based overseas.

The firm did £30m-worth of transactions as a two-man start-up in year one, and appeared to defy the slowdown by increasing this figure by a pretty remarkable 60% to £74m in 2008 (a year best forgotten for many others).

The now nine-strong firm is planning to go big on property management in 2014 and will soon be introducing commercial property services to run alongside its established resi offering. Other revenue streams include a property concierge and a “Vacant Care Service”, which looks after their clients’ properties when they’re away.

Prophet & Loss: The difficult business of property market forecasting

Why did so many commentators and analysts get it wrong this year? Perhaps we still don’t fully understand the strength of the forces behind the price growth we’ve been witnessing, says Camilla Dell

Around this time of year, we are often asked for our forecasts for the next twelve months. Our view on forecasts is that they are interesting to discuss, but like the weather and stock market forecasts, they are often as inaccurate as they are accurate.

One agency was honest enough to admit in its 2014 forecast document that commentators and analysts have continually under-forecasted house price growth over the past 15-20 years. This was certainly true during the boom years of the late-1990s and early-to-mid-2000s, but it has also been the case during the bounce-back following the credit crisis.

While this is not a scientific reason to believe our “positive” forecasts, it does suggest that we still do not fully understand the strength of the forces behind the price growth we have been witnessing.

If it is possible to generalise about prime central London property, we believe that the sub-£2m frenzy will continue in 2014. We expect competition for properties priced below £1m to be particularly heated. A lot of the competition is down to the changing tax environment as it has become increasingly more expensive for buyers above £2m, either paying 7% stamp duty if buying in their own name, or 15% if buying in a company name.

Many of our investment clients are choosing to stay below the £2m level as a result, but interestingly, we are also starting to see evidence from our owner-occupier client base staying below the £2m level for fear of a future mansion tax.

However, our view is that Central London is not a homogeneous market. Prices on a per square foot basis can deviate significantly from area to area, from street to street in the same area, and from house to house in the same street, depending on a whole range of factors. This is precisely why we believe it’s so important to be guided by specialist advice, because if you don’t know the market in-depth as a buyer, or are unaware of specific factors affecting particular areas and streets, then understanding what price represents good value becomes very difficult.

Set out in the table below are the forecasts of the major agencies for Central London house price growth in 2014. When we produced the same table last year, Hamptons, Savills, Knight Frank and Jones Lang LaSalle all predicted zero price growth for 2013. However, barring a sharp collapse in prices in December, the PCL market is set to deliver high single digit price growth for 2013, and at the time of writing has risen every month in the year-to-date.

2014 Forecasts for House Prices in Central London and the UK

	Central London	UK
Hamptons	6.0%	n/a
Savills	3.0%	6.5%
Knight Frank	4.0%	7.0%
Jones Lang LaSalle	8.0%	5.0%
Cluttons	4.0%	n/a
Strutt & Parker	3.5%	4.4%
Chesterton Humberts	10.1%	8.2%

Meanwhile, we predict a fairly flat year for rents in central London in 2014. Help to Buy will inevitably take some renters out of the market and with more choice for tenants than ever before; the power is clearly with potential tenants. The top end of the rental market (properties priced at £1,000 per week upwards) may see some pick-up in demand. We are already seeing an increase in demand from our own client base, in particular from French clients looking to spend more time in the UK to escape the high tax environment back in France.

Uncertainty surrounding a possible future mansion tax may also drive more owner-occupiers looking to buy homes at the £2m-plus level to rent before buying and adopt a “wait and see” approach, waiting for the outcome of the next general election in 2015.

London’s Rich Tap New Breed of Broker in Hunt for Homes

Louise Beale interviews Camilla Dell for Bloomberg News, reporting on the use of buying agents to secure homes in the central London residential property market, where demand outstrips supply.

Red-Hot Property Markets Cool as Rich Investors Retrench

Demand for high-end homes in London, New York slows as market turmoil hits global investors

LONDON—In August 2014, when the housing market here was on a tear, a two-bedroom condominium in one of the most expensive neighborhoods went up for sale at £3.25 million ($4.64 million), a 67% premium to its purchase price six months earlier.

The redbrick home on Cadogan Gardens in Knightsbridge is still unsold, and expectations have been revised. The price has been cut three times, the latest at the start of this year, to £2.5 million.

“It’s a great property,” said Sam Spring, a sales broker at the Chelsea office of estate agency Faron Sutaria, of the 1,250-square-foot home with dark walnut floors and high-end appliances. “It’s just a very price-sensitive market these days.”

In London’s priciest neighborhoods, the housing boom is over.

Wealthy investors, most prominently from Russia, China and the Mideast, swooped in on cities like London, New York and Vancouver to buy high-end homes in the years following the 2008 financial crisis. Real estate appeared to be a safe investment. Returns looked robust against ultralow interest rates.

Now, demand is slowing not just in London, but in prime housing markets around the world.

Average prices of luxury homes in 10 global cities analyzed by real-estate broker Knight Frank LLP are expected to rise 1.7% this year, down from 3% growth in 2015.

Foreign investors that helped drive the boom have had to contend with weakened currencies, stock-market shocks and the collapse in oil prices. Meanwhile, a major overhaul of a U.K. transaction tax known as stamp duty increased the charge on high-price sales, and new taxes on second homes and rental properties will take effect this spring.

In New York, demand for high-end homes cooled last year, brokers said. In Miami, South American and European buyers could pull back this year due to a stronger dollar, and prices are expected to fall in Hong Kong, Singapore and Paris, Knight Frank said. Swiss lender UBS Group AG said in October that housing markets in Sydney, Vancouver, San Francisco and Amsterdam appear “significantly overvalued.”

Luxury housing in London became one of the world’s hottest assets. But “the frenzy is gone completely,” said Manish Chande, senior partner at U.K. real-estate firm Clearbell Capital LLC. About 18 months ago “everything was going like hot cakes. Today it’s the total opposite,” Mr. Chande said.

Prices in prime central London, which includes high-end properties in posh districts like Mayfair and Chelsea, fell 1.4% during 2015, according to data-provider Lonres. Some neighborhoods fared worse. In Knightsbridge, prices dropped 5.6% in November compared with the year earlier, according to broker Knight Frank.

Those slides may understate what is going on: Data on high-end homes are hard to compare, because there are few of them and sellers may have the wherewithal to simply hold off rather than accept a lowered price. Transaction volumes at the top end of the London market were as much as 40% lower in December from a year earlier, according to U.K. buying agent Property Vision, and inventories of prime properties are mounting.

The standoff between buyers and sellers resulted in 2,712 homes over £1 million for sale in prime central London at the end of November, 81% more than in January 2014, according to buying adviser Huntly Hooper Ltd.

Even so, in a sign of the liquidity crunch, the gap between asking prices and sales prices is widening.

The difference between initial asking prices and average sales prices in prime central London was at a record 19% in the three months to November, Huntly Hooper data show. The disparity was 9% in the same period last year.Cadogan Gardens—four streets ringing a shared garden—sits on the Cadogan Estate, a 93-acre central London plot that has been in the same family for nearly 300 years.

The estate is on the border of Chelsea and Knightsbridge, parts of London now synonymous with fancy cars, luxury shopping and high-price penthouses.Its origins are noble. The English aristocracy once had summer palaces around the fields and marshes of Chelsea. In the 1770s, the first large-scale housing development started when Charles Sloan, the Earl Cadogan, granted a lease to architect Henry Holland to build terraced homes for moderately affluent people.In the 1800s, the area started to be swallowed by expanding London. Sloane Square tube station opened in 1868. Much of the Cadogan Estate was redeveloped in the late 1800s after falling into decline.Last year, just a quarter of the 34 homes put up for sale on Cadogan Gardens sold, and almost half were taken off the market, according to Nathaniel Wilde,head of the Sloane Square office for estate agent Hamptons International. On Eaton Place in neighboring Belgravia, home to billionaires and diplomats, only a quarter of the around 50 homes offered were sold, he said.It was a “tough year on that patch,” Mr. Wilde said. “Lots of homes are still sitting there.”The Cadogan Gardens condo for sale at £2.5 million was last sold in February 2014 for £1.95 million, according to Land Registry records. The property developer selling the condo has been renting it out, Mr. Spring said.

Superrich buyers from countries in the Mideast and Asia helped drive prices higher. But financial circumstances in those countries have changed drastically in the past year.

Oil prices, slipping under $30 a barrel, are about half the price they were in May. Demand from some investors in oil-producing countries around the Middle East and Africa has waned, property agents said.

Mideast investors made up 4% of prime central London buyers last year, compared with 15% in 2014, according to data from broker Savills PLC.

Weaker currencies have kept investors in Asia and other emerging markets at bay. The portion of buyers from the Pacific-Asia region fell to 2% in 2015 from 4%, Savills data show. In China, stock market routs amid concerns about economic growth have had an impact on buyers. Most investors from China have focused on new-build properties away from London’s historic center, agents said.

In New York’s high-end property market, the Federal Reserve noted “softer demand and a supply glut” in its December regional survey of economic conditions known as the beige book.

“There has been a dramatic slowdown at the superluxury end of the market,” said Andrew Gerringer, managing director of the Marketing Directors, new-development consultants. “When you see what’s happened in the financial markets it just puts a bit more of a chill.”

In the 90-story One57, just a couple of blocks from Central Park, a four-bedroom condo purchased by a European investor for $20.3 million in April recently sold for $17.75 million, according to the broker, James Cox of real-estate firm Compass.

While overall the New York real-estate market remains strong, Mr. Gerringer said that demand for trophy properties over $20 million has cooled substantially over the past year, and there has been some impact on the $5 million-$10 million market.

At 50 United Nations Plaza, which has views of the Empire State Building, the developers, Zeckendorf Development LLC and Global Holdings Inc., said they cut prices by 5% on some units, although they said less expensive units on the lower floors have sold for close to the asking price.

In Sydney, upscale home prices raced 15% higher in 2015, according to Knight Frank. But growth is expected to slow to 10% this year.

Rich Simeon, director of real-estate firm Simeon Manners, is waiting to see if the recent China stock market shakeout chokes off demand from Asian buyers. “It is too early to tell what is going to happen right now,” Mr. Simeon said.

Jo Eccles at London buying agent Sourcing Property said foreign buyers made up half of her business over a year ago. But now the vast majority of her clients live in London, with many working at investment banks. “The demographic has changed massively,” Ms. Eccles said.

Access to capital has also become increasingly difficult for foreign buyers exposed to falling oil prices, said Camilla Dell, managing partner at buying agency Black Brick. She said wealthy buyers from oil-rich African countries like Nigeria have struggled with liquidity in the past six to 12 months.

In the U.K., the change in stamp duty in December 2014 made homes valued over £937,000 more expensive for buyers. Stamp duty charges rise in steps to a maximum of 12% on the portion of sales over £1.5 million. The previous regime charged a flat rate based on the value of the home, with the duty rising to 7% on homes over £2 million. Last year, to compensate for the change, some sellers adjusted their prices lower, agents said.

Wealthy buyers can generally afford the outlay, said Alex Newall, managing director at Hanover Private Office. But the new tax has made people wanting to trade up to a bigger home hold off on transactions, “instead opting to do renovations or additions to their existing properties,” he said.

While the prime central London market is stuttering, prices are still pushing higher in the rest of London amid a housing shortage. The average dwelling in November sold for £506,724, up 11.2% from the year before, according to Land Registry data.

Adding to demand are buyers that a few years ago would have focused exclusively on prime central neighborhoods. For instance, some wealthy Middle Eastern buyers have started to see better value in new-build projects away from the center.

“These clients are now willing to look 10 miles out,” said Jo Leverett, head of international residential markets at estate agent Cluttons LLP. “That’s new.”

Overall, London has become drastically less affordable. When UBS warned in October that the city was at risk of a housing bubble, it noted that real earnings have fallen 7% since 2007.

“We’re due a price correction,” said Robert Nichols, managing director at London estate agent Portico. “When you can’t think of anyone who can afford to live on your street, you know there is something wrong.”

For now, areas dependent on the superrich are the ones suffering.

St. George’s Hill, a gated community in the suburbs of Surrey, became popular with wealthy Russians during the boom.

Now, around a quarter of the over 400 homes in the area are for sale or set to come onto the market, according to Hanover Private Office. Just 13 homes were sold there last year.

Wealthy Russians have pulled back from the London market amid international sanctions, the depreciation of the ruble and political pressure to rein in foreign spending, buying agents representing Russians said.

Saddle Stones, a six-bedroom mansion in St. George’s Hill, was listed in August 2014 at £9.5 million. The asking price is now £7.5 million. The home, complete with a cinema room, elevator and swimming pool, was designed with a Russian buyer in mind, said Natalia Rotenberg, founder of design firm NR Group.

Ms. Rotenberg said homes in the area remain for sale despite lavish parties thrown for potential buyers. “We’ve won awards for our interiors. But they still don’t sell,” Ms. Rotenberg said in a September interview.

The forecast for the prime London market? That depends on which part…

Forecast season may be upon us, but headline figures are of little use in the micro-markets of prime London, says Camilla Dell…

As we approach the year end, the UK’s leading agents and property analysts have the tough job of predicting the outlook of the property market. This year, their job is tougher than ever as the UK market faces extreme uncertainty as a consequence of the Brexit vote. Not only will the terms of the UK’s relationship with the EU have a profound effect on the country’s overall economic performance over the next few years, but the treatment of the financial sector will bear particularly on the London property market.

The collective response to this uncertainty is expected to be inaction, with both JLL and Savills predicting no growth for Prime Central London (PCL) in 2017. This is followed by a growth of 15.2% and 20.8% respectively over five years to 2021. Although we largely agree, we caution the usefulness of a single number for such a heterogeneous market as prime London. As we have seen in the past, just as some geographic areas have performed better than others; some parts of the market are likely to outperform the average.

For example, we expect the lower end, below £1 million, to remain active and resilient, supported by government programmes, such as Right to Buy. Furthermore, the current stamp duty regime continues to make properties at this end of the market relatively attractive to investors. This implies that outer prime locations are likely to do better than a more traditional – and more expensive – PCL.

There will also be outliers at the higher end of the market; we’re seeing stock dry up as vendors refuse to countenance the discounts needed to close deals. This can have effects in both directions; those sellers which come to the market are likely to be highly motivated to sell, and open to offers, while limited supply can see buyers pay up for high quality properties.

For the opposite reason, we remain very cautious on the new-build segment, which we think is still the most vulnerable part of the market. Some parts of London are flooded with supply and we’re likely to see properties offered with substantial discounts.

Of course, there is a near-term wildcard, in the Chancellor of the Exchequer’s Autumn Statement, due on 23 November. Budgets under George Osborne delivered raid after raid on the property market and we don’t know what – if anything – Philip Hammond has up his sleeve.

Mum and Dad rent a different class of digs

By Carol Lewis

The average cost of student digs across the country is about £88 a week, although in some areas of London parents are paying almost 100 times that to secure the best luxury accommodation for their offspring.

James Thornett, the head of lettings at CBRE Residential, says that parents are paying up to £7,000 a week for “super-top end” three to five-bedroom apartments with a concierge, gym, spa and games room. This year 42 per cent of the estate agency’s lettings in Covent Garden have been to students — compared with 21 per cent last year.

“Many are postgraduate students studying business or management at the London School of Economics or University College London. Two thirds of them are from overseas and will have funds from mum and dad. They are security conscious and tend to want to live in a secure part of town with a 24-hour concierge. They are looking at super-prime properties — a far cry from the stereotypical student digs,” he says.

Thornett says that 10 to 15 per cent of the wealthy students he rents to will not have visited the property before they arrive for university, either trusting in virtual reality or video tours. “Often they will pay the whole year’s rent in advance to secure the tenancy and it is usual to start paying rent in June even though they won’t arrive until September for the new term — such is the competition for the best places,” he says.

Often students will want new-build properties or newly renovated places and some will request a “nanny annexe” in which a bodyguard can live. This is despite the increase in private student halls, many of which offer students a higher quality of digs than seen before. According to the website Accommodation for Students, 287 private halls opened in Britain this year, with students in London paying £264 a week on average, or £129 a week for private rental accommodation. Zone 1 is the most expensive area with an average cost of a studio in private halls of £429 a week. The average weekly rent for all properties within Greater London was £395 in September according to Countrywide, the estate agency.

Last month one student accommodation provider, Hello Student, announced that it was teaming up with the Conran Shop to offer luxury furnished “executive studios” to students in Cardiff costing from £233 a week.

Yet despite the high rents some parents are paying there is a lack of property available to students. “Some landlords are cautious about renting to students but we have to think beyond [the 1980s sitcom] The Young Ones image of students partying every night and ruining the place. They tend to leave the place immaculate and rarely, if ever, do we have to deduct anything from the deposit,” Thornett says.

A two-bedroom flat at Merano Residences, on Albert Embankment in London, is to let for £1,125 a week with CBREA two-bedroom flat at Merano Residences, on Albert Embankment in London, is to let for £1,125 a week with CBRE.

Other areas of London popular with wealthy students include South Kensington, near Imperial College London and the Royal College of Music, and St John’s Wood and close to Regent’s Park for the London Business School.

Camilla Dell, a managing partner of Black Brick, a buying agency, says that she has seen an increase in international rental tenants including students. Many have decided against buying because of the increase in stamp duty, the abolition of capital gains tax and inheritance tax breaks for foreign buyers, and the uncertainty caused by Brexit, which means families are less sure that their children will live and work in London after graduating than they were before the referendum.

She says that most of her clients are looking to spend between £700 and £1,000 a week, with safety the key concern — so a 24-hour concierge or porter is a must-have. They also tend to want a one-year tenancy with the option of renewing for the final two years of their course.

Martin Bikhit, the managing director of Kay & Co estate agency, says: “We have seen a spike this year in wealthy students renting, but also in parents buying for their children. Often they are planning years in advance, buying property three to four years before the children need it and renting it out in the meantime. They will buy two to three-bedroom apartments so that siblings can share. Marylebone is particularly popular for its proximity to the London Business School and London College of Fashion. They tend to spend from £800 a week upwards on rent.”

Thornett says that, of his clients, 80 per cent of parents will pay for children to rent while the rest will buy for them. “More than a couple of times we have had parents plan for children who are eight or ten years old. They are buying property for the child to live in in ten years’ time. They treat it as an investment. There is also a small percentage who will start out renting and will then buy.”

Are Americans coming to rescue London’s ailing property market?

By Isabelle Fraser

Many Americans would have us know that they “saved” us from the Germans in the Second World War. As we approach the 75th anniversary of the Normandy Landings, I’ll leave that heated debate for another day.

But now they might be coming to save us from something else: our sluggish property market.

Buying agent Black Brick reports that there has been a big jump in the number of Americans wanting to buying property in the most expensive areas of central London, accounting for nearly one third of its clients in the year to June.

These American buyers can now get a 40 per cent discount on what they might have paid at the top of the market. Property prices in many areas of prime central London have fallen 15 to 20 per cent, and they have the exchange rate behind them too: in July 2014, the pound was worth $1.71, but in the last two years it has traded between $1.27 and $1.43.

“Our US clients are not put off by Brexit or the threat of a Corbyn government; instead, they view the market as a good buying opportunity,” says Camilla Dell, of Black Brick.

“Our largest transaction for a US client – more than £20 million – was because he had decided to relocate to London and run his technology business from here. After Silicon Valley, London is the next best place for IT entrepreneurs. We have the infrastructure and talent to be able to support companies like this.”

These buyers are largely coming from New York, LA, San Francisco and Chicago, as well as a few from Houston and Dallas, according to Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Kay & Co. They’re prepared to pay upwards of £10 million on average, looking in Marylebone, Hyde Park and King’s Cross, and for larger family houses in Mayfair, Belgravia, Hampstead, Notting Hill and St John’s Wood.

It fits in with a general picture of returning health for the high-end market, too. Knight Frank said earlier this month that the number of offers made (not just by Americans) for these pricey properties in the first three months of this year was the highest in more than 10 years. The level of new buyers was also at the highest figure since 2014, when prices were at their peak.

Transactions have increased in prime central London among homes priced under £1m, between £1m and £2m, and over £5m, according to LonRes. It’s the market for homes between £2m and £5m that is suffering the most, where the level of sales continue to fall.

So what’s changed? Political uncertainty remains, albeit in the background. Sky-high stamp duty, which decimated the market four years ago, is still a major factor. It’s a more imperceptible shift of momentum: a mixture of sellers’ increasing realism combined with buyers getting bored of waiting to see what happens with Brexit.

But it’s not all sunshine after the storm in the prime central London market: there’s been a 39 per cent fall in the number of new properties listed in the first three months of the year, compared with the same period in 2018.

That’s proving to be one of the biggest problems for the ultra-rich, as there aren’t enough suitably high-end, ultra luxurious properties to buy.

Brexit bargains: London’s luxury homes take big price cuts

Wealthy buyers are benefiting from political uncertainty — especially if they are paying in dollars

Five-bedroom house in Belgravia has cut its original asking price by £1m to £8.95m

Brexit uncertainty hangs over London’s luxury property market like a fog. Since the referendum in June 2016, house prices in prime central London have dropped 14 per cent, according Savills. Meanwhile, sales are down 19 per cent, according to LonRes.

However, despite the endless political wrangling, some buyers believe they see the opportunity for a Brexit bargain — especially if they are buying in dollars.

One US-based buyer, who asked to remain anonymous, has just bought a flat in Mayfair for £6m after negotiating a discount of more than 10 per cent. He says the weak pound, attractive borrowing rates and overblown stories about professionals leaving London in their droves all contributed to his decision to buy now.

“London is the default investment locale, not only for the US but for the world,” he says. “The idea that people will pick Brussels, Frankfurt or Paris over London was misplaced.”

The fall in the value of sterling since the referendum has made expensive property in London more attractive to overseas buyers. On the currency play alone, if the US-based buyer had paid for his £6m flat in dollars in October 2015, it would have cost him about $9.18m; this month, the dollar amount would be $7.8m. The buyer expects the strong value of the dollar to fall eventually, making his investment worthwhile.

“In the short term the UK has been disproportionately hurt by Brexit, but in the long term it won’t be at all,” he says. He intends to rent out his apartment and is expecting a 3 per cent yield.

This buyer’s approach is typical of many international purchasers who leverage the currency advantage. New data from LonRes show that transactions on properties in prime central London rose 14 per cent in the third quarter of 2019 compared with the same period last year.

“There is much more activity than we were expecting in the run-up to the Brexit deadline [of October 31],” says Rory Penn of Knight Frank. He sees buyers taking a long-term view, especially when relocating a family to London for the next five to 10 years. “You can get a much better house than you could a couple of years ago,” he says.

“I don’t think there is any rush to sell but a lot of our buyers have been buying this year because they believe it’s the right time,” says Camilla Dell of buying agency Black Brick. “Brexit is a blip — it will be over soon,” says Ed Lewis, head of residential development sales at Savills. “The further away you are from London, the less Brexit is relevant. If you’re sitting in Hong Kong, Beijing or Shanghai, you look at London in terms of currency value and see it as an exciting opportunity.”

Buyers do not even need to be far away. A 48-year-old Belgian national who also asked to remain anonymous recently bought a smart family house in north-west London after renting in the city for several years.

“If I could, I would have bought two or three years earlier,” she says. “But I am not unhappy because when the market is nervous, it is not a bad time to buy.”

She paid £2.5m for her six-bedroom semi-detached house near Willesden Green. She bought the home through Sotheby’s and managed to negotiate 11 per cent off the asking price.

Similar discounts — and even larger ones — abound. Several homes on the market with asking prices of more than £5m have had their prices slashed by more than 30 per cent. A six-bedroom house in Chelsea, currently marketed for £5.95m, was listed in 2013 at £9m, according to Zoopla. In Hampstead, a six-bedroom home currently marketed for £5.25m was listed on Zoopla in November 2016 for £6.95m.

Estate agency Arlington Residential is selling a seven-bedroom house in Highgate for £8.65m that was originally priced at £11.95m. Best Gapp is marketing a five-bedroom house on Halkin Place in Belgravia for £8.95m, a reduction of £1m on its original asking price; and a six-bedroom terraced house in Westminster’s Smith Square is on offer for £6.95m, down from £7.85m via Maskells. “I don’t think the market will do anything for a year or two,” says the Belgian buyer. “The next 10 years will turn out to be a good time to buy.”

“It’s not that Labour itself is bad news for the housing market, which usually does well under Labour government,” says Henry Pryor, an independent buying agent, “but Corbyn and McDonnell’s version of socialism frightens clients — they have openly talked about sequestrating long-term empty properties and discussed extending Right to Buy to private tenants.”

“Anyone in the middle and upper class would be badly affected,” says Trevor Abrahmsohn of Glentree Estates, predicting a flight of capital from the UK as “wealth creators” find other places to live. “Corbynistas are trying to make the poor rich by making the rich poor,” he says.

Calls grow louder for full-scale overhaul of UK property tax

Stamp duty has been fiscal weapon but whole regime deemed too complicated

By James Pickford

Stamp duty has become the UK government’s “fiscal weapon of choice” in the housing market but calls for a full-scale overhaul of the property tax are growing as new surcharges and reliefs spark criticism of an increasingly unwieldy regime.

The charge, paid by buyers on property purchases above £125,000, has been subject to a string of tweaks and accretions in the past six years, as ministers have used it to favour some purchasers, such as first-time buyers, with reliefs and discourage others, such as buy-to-let landlords, with extra rates.

The next group set to find itself paying more is non-UK-resident buyers, after Whitehall officials told the FT this week that a stamp duty surcharge of up to 3 percentage points on overseas purchasers of UK property was expected to be included in the Budget on March 11. Receipts from the additional tax are to be used to tackle rough sleeping.

The measure comes after a 3 per cent surcharge was introduced in 2016 for those buying second and buy-to-let homes, in a move aimed at dousing activity among landlord investors. If the new surcharge on non-residents is confirmed at levels close to 3 per cent, overseas buyers who already own a home could end up paying up to 18 per cent in stamp duty on the portion of the purchase price over £1.5m.

Camilla Dell, managing partner of buying agent Black Brick, said the 2016 surcharge, particularly for those whose house sale falls through leaving them with two properties, had created new administrative difficulties. “The whole property tax regime has just become too complicated. It’s a headache,” she said.

The latest fiscal salvo targeting overseas buyers sent a curious message under a post-Brexit government with bold international ambitions, she added. “I don’t believe foreign buyers are the root cause of problems in the housing market. I think they’re an easy target for the government because they don’t vote.”

In the 2017 Budget, then chancellor Philip Hammond unveiled stamp duty relief for first-time buyers of homes worth less than £500,000. This followed another major change in 2014 — one broadly welcomed by the market — when his predecessor George Osborne did away with the old “slab” system of stamp duty, under which a single rate was charged on the entire value of the property.

It was replaced with a “slice” arrangement where higher rates only apply to the portion of the value above certain thresholds.

Even so, the “bolt-on” approach to stamp duty changes has drawn many detractors, far beyond the estate agents who habitually complain of its chilling effects on sentiment. Transaction taxes are anathema to economists and housing market experts who say they benefit those who stay put and penalise those who move. Neal Hudson, director at housing market research firm Residential Analysts, said: “It’s a stupid tax and not how you would go about taxing property if you were to start from scratch.”

The Institute for Fiscal Studies, a think-tank, has described it as a “dysfunctional” tax and has urged Rishi Sunak, chancellor, to reform council tax to increase charges on more valuable properties. The valuations on which council tax is based have not been updated since 1991.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors argues that the changes since 2014 have helped first time buyers but deterred existing homeowners from considering a move. “We therefore believe government should establish a review to address all fiscal measures which impact housing supply, the taxation of homeowners and landlords, and encourages innovation and improved infrastructure,” it said.

Even Sajid Javid, who resigned last month as chancellor, has spoken out against the current state of stamp duty, telling the Times last weekend that it was “too high”, “very distortive” and “needs significant change”.

But the political appeal of a root-and-branch overhaul is unclear, particularly when the government is absorbed in managing the coronavirus crisis. Stamp duty has become an increasingly important source of tax revenue in recent years, generating £8.37bn in tax receipts in 2018-19, according to provisional government figures. Much of this is accounted for by sales of homes in London and the south-east. Transactions in these two regions brought in £5.07bn, 61 per cent of the total for England and Northern Ireland.

In light of prime minister Boris Johnson’s repeated commitment to “level up” economic inequalities between regions, the political gains from forcing through radical changes to a tax that is largely paid by wealthier groups in the south of England are questionable.

Politicians last year flirted with the idea of switching stamp duty from a tax paid by the buyer to the seller, but economists argue that such a measure would simply raise prices. Longstanding alternatives in the shape of a land tax or reform of council tax, though backed by economists, remain unpalatable for Conservative MPs mindful of their constituents’ economic interests.

When the Daily Telegraph reported last month that stamp duty cuts were under discussion in government circles, it was notable that any reductions were said to be tied to the introduction of a “mansion tax”, said Lucian Cook, residential research director at estate agent Savills.

“That gives you a fairly strong clue as to the extent to which the government are going to be protective of their tax revenues. They were looking for a means by which they could make any changes revenue neutral.”

Mr Cook concluded that the prospects of a thoroughgoing revamp of Britain’s housing transaction tax are remote. “Stamp duty has become the government’s fiscal weapon of choice as far as housing is concerned. It is probably due an overhaul. The issue is whether anyone’s got the stomach to do it when it continues to be a significant cash generator for the Treasury.”

Calls grow louder for full-scale overhaul of UK property tax

Stamp duty has been fiscal weapon but whole regime deemed too complicated

By James Pickford

It was replaced with a “slice” arrangement where higher rates only apply to the portion of the value above certain thresholds.

Calls grow louder for full-scale overhaul of UK property tax

Stamp duty has been fiscal weapon but whole regime deemed too complicated

By James Pickford

It was replaced with a “slice” arrangement where higher rates only apply to the portion of the value above certain thresholds.

How to avoid getting into negative equity if house prices fall: the latest property advice

House prices are likely to fall, which means buyers with high LTV mortgages could find themselves with assets worth less than they borrowed

By Melissa Lawford

Analysts disagree on how much UK house prices will fall due to the coronavirus outbreak and subsequent market freeze, but the consensus is that they will take a hit.

Many buyers are worried about getting into negative equity as soon as they have purchased their homes. This means that you own a property that is worth less than what you borrowed to pay for it.

Buyers who have purchased with high loan-to-value mortgages are most at risk. If you have purchased just 5 per cent of your property with cash, for example, you will quickly be in negative equity if house prices fall by 13 per cent, as forecast by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).

But that would not mean that you have to immediately sell your house at a loss. Here, we look at your options, and what buyers can do to protect themselves.

What happens if you get into negative equity?

“The biggest misconception about negative equity is that people think they’re suddenly going to be repossessed,” says Nick Morrey, of John Charcol, an independent mortgage broker. “That couldn’t be further from the truth.”

If you are able to wait out the market until prices climb, you should be fine. “Over every five year period, prices have ended up higher, even if there is a crash in the middle,” says Morrey.

Most analysts are predicting a “V-shape” economic recovery after lockdown is lifted, and both Capital Economics and Knight Frank expect house prices to return to growth in 2021. “If you do get into negative equity, hold on,” says Tim Hyatt, of Knight Frank.

Most lenders have removed high loan-to-value mortgages for new purchases, says Morrey, but it is still possible to find options for transfers, as these don’t require the lender to send a valuer to the property. If your mortgage deal is coming to an end, talk to your lender about what options you have for switching.

If you’re not able to transfer, you will be moved to a standard variable rate mortgage when your current deal ends. While the costs could be higher than what you were paying before, the difference will be mitigated by the fact that the Bank of England base rate is currently at a historic low of 0.1 per cent.

What if you have to move house?

If you’re in negative equity and you can’t sit tight, your situation is more problematic. You will need permission from your lender to sell if the sale price is likely to be less than the remaining value of the mortgage. And you will be personally responsible for making up the difference in value.

A better option is to contact your lender and ask for consent to let out the property, says Morrey. In other words, you can become an accidental landlord.

Be wary that rental values are likely to take a hit, particularly with the expected influx of stock from the short-term lettings market with the collapse of the travel industry. But hopefully, the rental income can cover your mortgage payments and free up your disposable income so that you can rent elsewhere while you wait for property prices to recover.

Is now a good time to negotiate a deal?

The Government has issued strong guidance against all but essential house moves during lockdown. While sales can still technically proceed, the market is a minefield. Many chains are falling through and some buyers can’t meet their completion dates.

When lockdown lifts, however, some buyers might consider the market an opportunity. If house prices are falling, “you’re likely to be able to make a cheeky offer,” says Morrey.

There just might not be much stock to take a punt at. After a crisis, “we will always see a bit of distressed selling,” says Camilla Dell, founder of the London buying agency Black Brick. “There will be some undoubtedly, but I think it will be few and far between.” The Government’s measures to protect earnings, mortgage holidays, and low interest rates will mean fewer sellers will be forced to take big price cuts.

If you are trying to negotiate, “the key to success is understanding your seller”, says Dell. If you know why, or how urgently they need to sell, you have more bargaining power.

You will also have an advantage if you “can demonstrate that you can move quicker, and anyone sitting on cash is in a great position”.

For those that aren’t may find that they simply can’t buy. Lenders have withdrawn high LTV mortgages from the market en masse. The available mortgage offering has shrunk by nearly a third and you will likely need a deposit of at least 20 per cent to secure lending.

Which parts of the country will be safest to buy in?

In the immediate term, the impact of coronavirus and the lockdown will be “very much uniform across the country,” says Lawrence Bowles of Savills Research.

When the restrictions lift, however, “we would expect equity driven markets to recover first,” he says. In prime central London, for example, people are more likely to buy with cash rather than with a mortgage, so purchasers will be able to move more quickly.

Recovery will also be dependent on the local employment markets. According to analysis by the CEBR, 48 per cent of the UK population works across the sectors most affected by the coronavirus lockdown: manufacturing, construction, retail, hospitality and other service sectors.

But their concentrations are highest in particular regions. In Yorkshire & the Humber and Northern Ireland, 60 and 59 per cent of workers are in these industries respectively. Disruption to the job markets here is likely to have a bigger impact on the local housing markets, according to CEBR.