There was lots of talk around the US presidential election that if the controversial Republican candidate Donald Trump won, as he did, many horrified Americans would up sticks and leave as soon as possible, with London likely a popular destination.

And if you are so minded, there are plenty of good reasons why, aside from fleeing the Trumpian tyranny: the shared language, a similar culture, London is a vibrant world city with great schools, and the US dollar is unusually strong in relation to sterling due to Brexit. But has in the wake of the election result there been a sudden spike in interest from American buyers looking at London? There’s little evidence to suggest so.

“We haven’t noticed any measurable increase in activity from US buyers,” Brendan Roberts, director at the estate agent Aylesford International, told IBTimes UK. “I think it’s highly unlikely to happen. Trump is president elect and until his policies are clear and understood, I don’t suppose we will see any great reaction in terms of Americans relocating.”

A spokesman for the estate agent Knight Frank there had been “no obvious change at this stage” in interest from US buyers in reaction to the election result. Similarly, a spokeswoman for the buying agent Black Brick said there had been no spike in interest from US buyers after the vote.

But Camilla Dell, managing director of Black Brick, said after the election that the firm is “likely to see some wealthy US citizens, particularly those most offended by Trump, move to the UK as some of our American clients hinted to us prior to this outcome.”

“Whilst we have seen a list of LA pop stars who vowed to leave the US if Trump was elected, to date this has not materialised,” said Alex Newall, managing director, Hanover Private Office, an estate agent. “We have seen a small number of the business elite from around New York making enquires for homes in London – particularly Prime Central London in areas such as Belgravia, Knightsbridge and Mayfair.”

A Trump-driven exodus may happen eventually, but it all depends on how much the reality of his presidency lives up to his deeply divisive campaign rhetoric. “We may not see an immediate move, as President elect Trump’s transitional team start their work, but already the markets have reacted badly,” said Charles Curran, principal at Maskells, a London estate agent, in the hours after Trump’s victory.

“However, our view is that there may be a small knee-jerk reaction to his win, but if Americans are to move to the UK in significant numbers, it will be after he has taken office and established what the relationship will be like between the Republican House and Senate.”

“As Donald Trump doesn’t take office until January, any increase in American buyers will be dispersed over the coming months,” said Nick Davies, head of residential development at Stirling Ackroyd. “However, the chronic shortage of properties in London means that any additional competition to buy or rent homes could push up prices.”

“It is impossible to know how a Trump government might affect the global economy and, in turn, the prime London housing market,” said Jonathan Hewlett, head of Savills London, an estate agent.

There is a more subtle sign of what may come than immediate calls to estate agents. Zoopla, the property listings website, said its web traffic from America on 9 November — the day after the election — was 45.3% higher than the average for the previous 30 days and 25.5% higher than the average for the past six months.

“With the outcome of the US presidential election result now behind us, early indications show that Americans may be looking at setting their sights on the British property market as the election result brings uncertainty for some,” said Lawrence Hall, spokesman for Zoopla.

“Unsurprisingly, London tops the list of the most popular search terms with American home movers over the last six months and several locations in the hotly sought-after Prime Central London market – including Chelsea, Hampstead and Marylebone – are some of the capital’s most searched for residential areas by Americans.”

Areas of the central London property market are “flooded” with overpriced newbuild homes that will have to be offered at “substantial discounts” to sell, according to a buying agent in the city.

Camilla Dell, managing director of the buying agent Black Brick, said in a market commentary her firm is “very cautious on the newbuild segment, which we think is still the most vulnerable part of the market. Some parts of London are flooded with supply and we’re likely to see properties offered with substantial discounts.”

The sharp house price rises in central London sparked a wave of development, many of which are “luxury” flats with bumper price tags.

But since the end of 2014 there have been a number of tax hikes on property investors and expensive homes, including higher stamp duty, denting the market and sparking asking price cuts in the newbuild sector in particular.

However, Dell said she expects the sub-£1m sector of the London market “to remain active and resilient” because it has not been subject to the same tax rises as higher up, meaning those properties are still “relatively attractive to investors”. Domestic buyers are also supported by government schemes such as Help to Buy.

“This implies that outer prime locations are likely to do better than a more traditional – and more expensive – PCL [prime central London],” Dell said.

“There will also be outliers at the higher end of the market; we’re seeing stock dry up as vendors refuse to countenance the discounts needed to close deals. This can have effects in both directions; those sellers which come to the market are likely to be highly motivated to sell, and open to offers, while limited supply can see buyers pay up for high-quality properties.”

Apartment C.08.1 in London’s luxury One Hyde Park development by Candy & Candy – the most valuable block of flats in the world – came with a price tag of almost £63m ($83m), making it the most expensive home on the open market in the UK.

But it has just been removed from sale for the fourth time in four years, apparently still unsold, as the super-prime property market feels the heat from a number of tax increases by the Treasury.

Sprawling for nearly 9,000 square foot across a whole floor of the building, Apartment C.08.1 has views over Hyde Park, all the highest quality fixtures, fittings and finishing, high-tech gadgets, a concierge service provided by The Mandarin Oriental Hotel, a gym, swimming pool and spa, opulent bespoke interior design by Candy & Candy, and much more.

The current owner, thought to be the used-car magnate Geoffrey Michael Warren, has tried to sell it at least four times since 2012, slashing the price tag by £2m along the way.

The property’s agent at Savills in Knightsbridge was contacted for comment on 22 August, while the apartment was still listed as for sale, but did not reply. However, in the 24 hours between the approach for comment and the publication of this article, the property was again removed from the market. The listing has not, as is common when a sale is agreed but the paperwork incomplete, been updated to mark the property as “sold subject to contract” or “under offer”.

“I’m afraid we are not able to help,” said a spokeswoman for Savills when asked if the property had now sold. Warren, 61, was approached for comment via his company Cargiant, but no reply was received.

“I think the super-prime end of the market has been going down in terms of values for almost two years,” said Caspar Harvard-Walls, a partner at the buying agent Black Brick. “A lot of people are laying the blame at Brexit’s door, but really the market had shifted before that.”

It is a series of tax hikes on high-end and investment property – such as higher stamp duty for expensive and second homes, the introduction of capital gains tax for foreign investors, and an annual levy on homes owned by offshore structures – which are the biggest drag on demand.

Moreover, a glut in the supply of luxury newbuild property in London makes One Hyde Park less unique that it once was. “All of those things have had a big impact on that end of the market,” Harvard-Walls said. “As a result, you probably will see some of these properties hanging around for much longer than they would have done a few years ago.”

The market for super-prime properties is tiny: there have been just three sales of properties in England and Wales worth over £20m in 2016 so far, show Land Registry figures. Between 2011 and today, there have been 36 such sales. By comparison, in the year to date there have been 350,252 home sales in total in England and Wales.

Finding the bite mark

Apartment C.08.1 was first put up for sale by the current owner through the agent Aylesford International in May 2012 with a price tag of £65m, but later removed from the market, despite some high-profile media coverage on MailOnline and Forbes.

The apartment reappeared on the market in May 2014, this time listed by Savills and for a price tag of £68m. Again, it was removed from the market — only to pop back up a year later in June 2015, listed at £75m and including a promise to pay the buyer’s potential £9m stamp duty bill after a tax hike by the then-chancellor George Osborne.

Having been removed from the market again, it was in April 2016 relisted by Savills for one pound shy of £63m – 3% lower than its 2012 asking price, 7% below is 2014 price, and 16% below the 2015 price including stamp duty. The promise to pay the buyer’s stamp duty has since vanished – and so has the latest advert.

“Values have come down and transactions have fallen so therefore sellers are having to be more realistic,” Harvard-Walls said. “These things are rare. That’s why they’re very, very hard to value.”