{"id":3438,"date":"2019-10-31T10:47:39","date_gmt":"2019-10-31T10:47:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bb.pixelanddot.dev\/market-update\/november-2019\/"},"modified":"2026-01-21T11:59:46","modified_gmt":"2026-01-21T11:59:46","slug":"november-2019","status":"publish","type":"market-update","link":"https:\/\/www.black-brick.com\/insights\/market-update\/november-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"November 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a>\"\"<\/p>\n

A tale of three cities<\/p>\n

Last month saw Black Brick Partner Caspar Harvard-Walls travel to Asia for client meetings \u2013 a trip that offered insights into international demand for London property, and which served as an important reminder of how the UK is considered by overseas buyers.<\/p>\n

The journey took in Singapore, which remains a paragon of stability and order, and Hong Kong, which, currently, does not. While the anti-government protests in Hong Kong are proceeding in a relatively civilised manner \u2013 with almost all of the disruption occurring at weekends \u2013 their steady escalation has raised profound questions around the future of the former British colony, and especially regarding how the government in Beijing is likely to respond.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn both cities, there is real interest in investing in prime London property, for a variety of reasons and with a range of motivations,\u201d says Harvard-Walls. \u201cBut the trip underscores that, for all the political and economic uncertainty we face because of Brexit, the further you get away from the UK, the less significant it becomes.\u201d<\/p>\n

Given Hong Kong\u2019s former status as a Crown Colony, wealthy Hong Kong Chinese have long maintained links with the UK, sending their children to be educated here and investing in the country. The recent and ongoing political instability are reinforcing those links, says Harvard-Walls.<\/p>\n

\u201cUnderstandably, some Hong Kong Chinese are beginning to think about contingency plans, or are simply looking to diversify their assets,\u201d he says. Many are heavily invested in property in Hong Kong, which has performed strongly, and are looking at prime London property as a means of spreading their exposures.<\/p>\n

In addition, some potential clients raised concerns about their children becoming caught up in the protests and see the appeal of sending them overseas for their secondary or higher education, and are looking for accompanying accommodation, he adds.<\/p>\n

For Singaporean clients, the drivers are different. \u201cIt\u2019s much more about investment,\u201d Harvard-Walls says: \u201cThey see the pound at historically low levels, and their view is that we\u2019re coming to the end of the Brexit uncertainty. The expectation in Singapore is both that the pound is likely to rally, and the property market will pick up \u2013 if either one happens, investors will do well, if both do, it\u2019s a double win.\u201d<\/p>\n

Whatever the motivation, interest from the region is up considerably: in the year to mid-October, we\u2019ve seen 50% more enquiries from Asia than for the whole of 2018. Last year, less than a quarter of our deals were with Asian clients \u2013 this year, it\u2019s more than a third.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile we\u2019re obsessed about Brexit, for most of the rest of the world, it\u2019s barely relevant,\u201d says Managing Partner Camilla Dell. \u201cIt\u2019s largely factored into residential property prices and, over the medium term, it\u2019s unlikely to diminish the appeal of London as a stable, safe and prosperous place to invest and live.\u201d<\/p>\n

She adds that even the appeal of the US is dimming for some \u2013 with next year likely to bring either the re-election of Donald Trump, with the division that will cause, or the election of a left-wing Democrat such as Elizabeth Warren, who is pledging to introduce a wealth tax. \u201cGovernments often forget that wealthy people are mobile \u2013 they vote with their feet,\u201d says Dell.<\/p>\n

<\/a>\"\"<\/p>\n

Investors are on the prowl<\/p>\n

Interest in prime central London property from institutional investors is building, in another signal that the market is on the turn. Recent weeks have seen a flurry of announcements of new investment vehicles targeting PCL, while a major developer buy-out could be on the cards.<\/p>\n

Boutique investment firm Fairway Capital is raising a \u00a3120 million PCL fund aimed at acquiring residential property in Belgravia, Knightsbridge and Mayfair. It is working with developer Leconfield Property Group and is aiming to deliver an internal rate of return of 12-15% per annum.<\/p>\n

George Brooksbank, its founder and CEO, describes the current market as a \u201ca once-in-a-decade opportunity to invest in PCL following the longest suppression in the market\u201d. He anticipates a 10-20% price uplift once Brexit is resolved and notes the increasing activity of foreign buyers taking advantage of the devaluation of sterling.<\/p>\n

REDD, a Monaco-based property investor and developer has disclosed that it is building up a \u00a3100 million development pipeline in PCL<\/a>, following a \u00a315 million acquisition of a Mayfair block on Balfour Place. The company, which started trading in 2016, was founded by Jacopo Marzocco, whose family company is a major developer in the principality.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, investors have backed high-end rental home firm Blueground<\/a> to the tune of $50 million in an investment round that will see the New York-based firm expand into London. The company buys and improves prime apartments, before letting them out. In New York, its lettings start at $7,000\/month.<\/p>\n

The company is aiming to acquire 1,500 apartments in London by 2023. \u201cLondon is an excellent addition to our existing locations and we are really confident that it will become our largest European market soon,\u201d Alex Chatzieleftheriou, its co-founder and CEO.<\/p>\n

And in the biggest potential bet on PCL, Candy Ventures, the investment firm owned by property developer Nicholas Candy, is reportedly in talks to buy London-focused real estate company Capital & Counties<\/a> (Capco). The company is struggling following the collapse in value of its Earl\u2019s Court development project, which was worth \u00a3803 million in 2015 but was valued at just \u00a3389 million this June.<\/p>\n

Publicly listed Capco was worth more than \u00a32.3 billion as of late October, following a regulatory announcement that it is considering a cash offer to acquire the company.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s no great surprise to see institutions circling the market and finding it interesting,\u201d says Dell. \u201cFinding the opportunities is going to be challenging for them, however.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/a>\"\"<\/p>\n

An election, and Christmas: opportunities from a December slowdown<\/p>\n

The UK is to hold a General Election on December 12, raising the prospect of resolution of the current Brexit impasse \u2013 but also likely temporarily putting the brakes on a nascent recovery in transactions in PCL.<\/p>\n

\u201cFrom the point of view of the London property market, the hope has to be that a General Election brings to end the current uncertainty around our departure from the EU, and that would be most likely with a convincing Conservative victory,\u201d says Dell.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe worst possible outcome \u2013 although a highly unlikely one \u2013 would be a Labour win, given the likelihood of significant tax rises, including the likely introduction of a wealth tax.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cOf course, the near-term uncertainty created by an election campaign is likely to depress activity levels which, while low, had shown some signs of recovery,\u201d she adds. \u201cHowever, this can create opportunities for buyers who can identify highly motivated sellers: there is likely to be less competition and the chance of real bargains.\u201d<\/p>\n

This near-term uncertainty will exacerbate the traditional lull in activity in the run-up to Christmas. However, this lull can present an ideal opportunity for buyers to strike.<\/p>\n

\u201cWith only seven weeks to go before Christmas, vendors can become desperate to close a deal, and other buyers may be distracted with their festive preparations,\u201d says Harvard-Walls. \u201cOur view that this can be the best moment to strike. It\u2019s no coincidence that both Camilla and I bought our respective family homes in December.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are also year-end targets to be met,\u201d he adds. \u201cDevelopers and agents are under pressure to get deals closed before their Christmas parties.\u201d<\/p>\n

Last year, we achieved one of our deepest discounts for a client \u2013 18% below the asking price \u2013 by striking just before Christmas.<\/p>\n

Not only does December 25th<\/sup> create a deadline for some sellers, the less-than-optimal viewing conditions can work in a committed buyer\u2019s favour. \u201cIf you like a property during the dark winter months, you\u2019re going to love it over the rest of the year,\u201d says Dell.<\/p>\n

<\/a>\"\"<\/p>\n

Acquisition of the month: Trafalgar Gardens, Kensington, W8 – \u00a32,150,000<\/p>\n

Our Italian client was looking for a secure pied-a-terre in Kensington<\/a>, and had found a property, but needed specialist advice on value and negotiation. Being based overseas, they also wanted someone on the ground who could communicate more efficiently with the sellers, and who could provide management of works once the purchase had completed.<\/p>\n

We successfully negotiated a \u00a3150,000 discount to the asking price, oversaw the legal process and introduced best-in-class surveyors and building contractors to advise on future works. By managing and co-ordinating the process, we reduced the risk of delays and escalating costs.<\/p>\n

<\/a>\"\"<\/p>\n

Managed sale of the month: Hereford Road, Acton, W3 – \u00a31,665,000<\/p>\n

We are acting for the seller of an entire freehold house that has been recently divided into four apartments. The newly-refurbished property is close to where the Acton Mainline \u2013 a new Crossrail station \u2013 is due to open, giving access to Bond Street in nine minutes and Liverpool Street in just 16. The four apartments would make an excellent rental investment, with an estimated gross rental yield in excess of 4%.<\/p>\n

To download a brochure, please click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

To arrange a viewing, please contact Alex Oliver on\u00a0Alex.Oliver@black-brick.com<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0or\u00a0020 3141 9862.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A tale of three cities Last month saw Black Brick Partner Caspar Harvard-Walls travel to Asia for client meetings \u2013 a trip that offered insights into international demand for London property, and which served as an important reminder of how the UK is considered by overseas buyers. The journey took in Singapore, which remains a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":3167,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_relevanssi_hide_post":"","_relevanssi_hide_content":"","_relevanssi_pin_for_all":"","_relevanssi_pin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_unpin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_include_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_exclude_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_no_append":"","_relevanssi_related_not_related":"","_relevanssi_related_posts":"","_relevanssi_noindex_reason":"","inline_featured_image":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":""},"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3438","market-update","type-market-update","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNovember 2019 | Property Market Update | Buying Agents | Black Brick<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our market report for 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