{"id":3386,"date":"2015-09-02T13:25:56","date_gmt":"2015-09-02T13:25:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bb.pixelanddot.dev\/market-update\/september-2015\/"},"modified":"2025-12-15T13:51:18","modified_gmt":"2025-12-15T13:51:18","slug":"september-2015","status":"publish","type":"market-update","link":"https:\/\/www.black-brick.com\/insights\/market-update\/september-2015\/","title":{"rendered":"September 2015"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"intro2\"><a id=\"one\"><\/a><span lang=\"EN-US\">Prime London: a haven for battered equity investors?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.black-brick.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/earthquake_website.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-4394 alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/www.black-brick.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/earthquake_website.jpg\" alt=\"earthquake_website\" width=\"205\" height=\"136\" \/><\/a>For investors in China\u2019s stock markets, it\u2019s been a grim summer \u2013 and now worries about the growth prospects for the world\u2019s second biggest economy are beginning to roil equity markets from Tokyo to New York. Clients and advisors are increasingly asking us whether these tremors in global markets could begin to shake the foundations of prime residential real estate in London.\u00a0The honest answer is, it\u2019s too early to say. Certainly, for investors nursing big losses on their stock market portfolios, finding the cash to make a property investment will have got harder. At the margins, there may be some forced disposals to compensate for losses elsewhere.\u00a0But there is reason to believe that the volatility we\u2019re seeing in financial markets could increase demand for bricks-and-mortar assets.<\/p>\n<p>Our experience in the last crash, in 2007-08, may prove instructive. Then, we saw enquiries evaporate for more expensive prime property, above the \u00a310 million mark. However, at the same time we witnessed growing demand at the less expensive end of the market, for properties around \u00a32 million and below, as investors sought assets that are weakly correlated with stock markets.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFor Chinese investors, particularly, the roller coaster ride in the local market may well increase the appetite for the more predictable performance of overseas investments, including London property,\u201d says Black Brick Managing Director Camilla Dell.<\/p>\n<p>There is also some speculation that the proposed launch of a new scheme, <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.wsj.com\/chinarealtime\/2015\/06\/18\/new-scheme-could-further-boost-chinese-real-estate-investment-in-u-s\/\">the Qualified Domestic Individual Investor programme<\/a>, will see more Chinese investors seek foreign real estate investments. The pilot programme will allow individuals from six cities, including Shanghai, to invest directly in overseas assets.<\/p>\n<p>The falls in China\u2019s stock market appear dramatic. But it is worth bearing in mind that the country\u2019s equity market is less closely linked to the underlying economy than is the case in most developed economy. Recent years have seen enormous wealth built up in China\u2019s \u2018real\u2019 economy, and that wealth will become an increasingly important factor in markets around the world in coming decades \u2013 including London\u2019s property market.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis is a trend that has been underway for some time,\u201d says Dell, \u201cwhich is why we\u2019ve been targeting China as a key overseas market for Black Brick. Stocks and shares will go up and down but, long-term, demand from China is only going in one direction.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"intro2\"><b><a id=\"two\"><\/a><\/b>Tight supply helps drive prices higher<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.black-brick.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/tight_supply.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-4395 alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/www.black-brick.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/tight_supply.jpg\" alt=\"tight_supply\" width=\"205\" height=\"136\" \/><\/a>So much for the future. As for the recent past, there has been a drop in the number of residential property transactions in the UK, especially for more expensive homes. The latest figures from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/uploads\/system\/uploads\/attachment_data\/file\/455701\/July_HPI_2015.pdf\">UK Land Registry<\/a> show a 38% fall in the number of properties in London sold for more than \u00a32 million in May, compared with the same month last year.\u00a0At the same time, prices are continuing to rise. Across the whole of the London market, prices were 8.3% higher in July than 12 months ago, with the capital outpacing the 4.6% rise in prices across England and Wales as a whole.\u00a0These two factors are, of course, connected. We are seeing far fewer properties coming on to the market, and a much higher number of potential buyers chasing whatever stock becomes available.<\/p>\n<p>While demand at the higher end of the prime market remains weak, we are seeing particular competition for properties below the \u00a32 million level, in part as a result of changes to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/stamp-duty-land-tax\/overview\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Stamp Duty threshold <\/a>announced last year. It is not uncommon for buyers to find themselves racing against literally dozens of rivals to secure properties, which are often going to sealed bids.<\/p>\n<p>A growing number of UK-based clients are coming to us for help buying in this part of the market, due to their difficulty in both finding, and then successfully securing, suitable properties in the face of stiff competition.<\/p>\n<p>Market intelligence and our connections mean that we can often secure early access when properties come onto the market. But we are also able to provide crucial advice on the bidding process, ensuring clients neither over- nor under-bid, based on our understanding of market conditions and appropriate comparables. <strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"intro2\"><a id=\"three\"><\/a><span lang=\"EN-US\">Property acquisition of the month: Childs Street, SW5<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.black-brick.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/childs_street.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-4396 alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/www.black-brick.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/childs_street.jpg\" alt=\"childs_street\" width=\"205\" height=\"136\" \/><\/a>We recently acted successfully for just such a client, a first-time buyer from the UK who was struggling to find a suitable home in London. She was looking for a period property, with an easy commute to St. James, and with outside space.\u00a0We found the perfect solution \u2013 a charming cottage <a href=\"https:\/\/www.black-brick.com\/expertise\/case-studies\/childs-street\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">townhouse<\/a> on a quiet street in Earls Court. We were able to secure the property for \u00a31.485 million despite strong competition from two other buyers, through how we presented our client to the agent. Our representation ensured that her offer was taken more seriously than those of rival potential purchasers, despite competitive bids.<\/p>\n<p class=\"intro2\"><a id=\"four\"><\/a>Black Brick on the road<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.black-brick.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/on_the_road.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-4397 alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/www.black-brick.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/on_the_road.jpg\" alt=\"on_the_road\" width=\"205\" height=\"136\" \/><\/a>Senior Black Brick representatives are taking to the skies over the coming months, meeting clients, private banks, wealth managers and law firms in Asia, Europe and the Middle East.\u00a0Partner Caspar Harvard-Walls will be in Hong Kong from the 21<sup>st<\/sup> to the 24<sup>th<\/sup> of September, and in Singapore over the 28<sup>th<\/sup> and 29<sup>th<\/sup>. Managing Partner Camilla Dell be be visiting Geneva 12th and 13th October then Zurich on the\u00a014th October and Dubai 1<sup>st<\/sup> to the 5<sup>th<\/sup> of November.\u00a0Please don\u2019t hesitate to <a href=\"mailto:camilla.dell@black-brick.com?subject=Meeting%20enquiry%20-%20from%20Sept%202015%20newsletter\">email<\/a> if you are interested in arranging meetings in any of those five\u00a0cities or, indeed, closer to home.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prime London: a haven for battered equity investors? For investors in China\u2019s stock markets, it\u2019s been a grim summer \u2013 and now worries about the growth prospects for the world\u2019s second biggest economy are beginning to roil equity markets from Tokyo to New York. Clients and advisors are increasingly asking us whether these tremors in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":2224,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_relevanssi_hide_post":"","_relevanssi_hide_content":"","_relevanssi_pin_for_all":"","_relevanssi_pin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_unpin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_include_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_exclude_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_no_append":"","_relevanssi_related_not_related":"","_relevanssi_related_posts":"","_relevanssi_noindex_reason":"","inline_featured_image":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":""},"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3386","market-update","type-market-update","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ 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