{"id":12583,"date":"2024-11-01T12:12:06","date_gmt":"2024-11-01T12:12:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.black-brick.com\/?post_type=market-update&p=12583"},"modified":"2024-11-01T12:16:44","modified_gmt":"2024-11-01T12:16:44","slug":"november-2024","status":"publish","type":"market-update","link":"https:\/\/www.black-brick.com\/insights\/market-update\/november-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"November 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a>\"\"<\/h1>\n

Rich Pickings<\/h1>\n

The wealthy were predictably in the hotseat in the Labour\u2019s government\u2019s first budget in a\u00a0generation.<\/p>\n

Air passenger duty on private jets was upped by 50%. The imposition of VAT on private school fees was confirmed.<\/p>\n

More significantly, for London\u2019s property market, the Stamp Duty surcharge for second homes (irrespective of whether the buyer is British or international) was increased by 2%, with immediate effect. This means that, depending on property value and buyer nationality, buyers of second homes will pay up to 19% over the value of their home in buying tax.<\/p>\n

Labour has also fulfilled a key manifesto pledge. The \u201cnon-dom\u201d tax regime will end in April\u00a02025, although chancellor Rachel Reeves did promise to replace it with a new scheme with \u201ccompetitive arrangements\u201d for wealthy international residents. Black Brick will be awaiting further information on this with keen interest.<\/p>\n

Tom Kain, a partner at Black Brick, believes the prime market will be able to absorb the tax\u00a0changes. \u201cI think that in the very short term, between now and Christmas, things could be a\u00a0bit slow,\u201d he said. \u201cIt will take a bit of time to feed into peoples\u2019 psyches and there may be\u00a0buyers who attempt to negotiate a 2% price cut to cover the higher tax. But it does not fundamentally alter why people like to buy property in Prime Central London (PCL).\u201d<\/p>\n

Camilla Dell, managing partner at Black Brick agrees. \u201cAs with previous rises in Stamp Duty, we expect the ultimate price for the rise to be paid for by the seller.<\/p>\n

\u201cHistory has shown that when Stamp Duty goes up transactions slow down while reality sinks in. Prices then fall in line with the rise, and sometimes overshoot it. \u201c<\/p>\n

As a result, Dell expects to see more standoffs between buyers and sellers over who will cover the extra tax. \u201cAt Black Brick we are already embarking on some tough renegotiations for clients under offer and not yet exchanged to take into account the additional 2%.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/a>\"\"<\/p>\n

The Rental Landscape<\/h1>\n

Reeves decided against hiking Capital Gains Tax for buy to let investors \u2013 a widely\u00a0anticipated move which sparked an exodus of landlords from the sector over the summer.<\/p>\n

Despite this concession Kain fears higher Stamp Duty bills will deter investor buyers from adding to their portfolios in future. \u201cIt is just another layer of cost in what has become a massively unattractive investment,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

However, there could be a silver lining for investors buying multiple properties.<\/p>\n

\u201cInterestingly there\u2019s been no change at all to \u201cthe rule of six\u201d,\u201d said Dell. \u201cInvestors buying six or more properties, or a property that is classed as mixed use \u2013 with residential and commercial uses – still benefit from significantly lower Stamp Duty rates of just 5%.<\/p>\n

\u201cI expect to see more interest from bulk investors taking advantage of the current buyers\u2019 market.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bulk investors enjoy a series of benefits beyond Stamp Duty: control over their running costs, the opportunity to sell a building if the need arises, or to break it up and sell flats individually,\u00a0and the ability to negotiate a better price.<\/p>\n

\u201cAt Black Brick we\u2019ve successfully negotiated as much as 20%<\/a> from asking prices on bulk deals from developers,\u201d said Dell. \u201cAnd with rents rising and yields improving, this sector is looking more attractive, particularly for freehold blocks<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

For those looking to rent in London the landscape is tough right now. A shortage of stock means rents have increased by double digit increments every year since the\u00a0end of the pandemic and renters face fierce competition. Happily, Black Brick offers a\u00a0dedicated Rental Search Service<\/a> to help tenants navigate this tricky market.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/a>\"\"<\/p>\n

Fireworks On The Horizon<\/h1>\n

Anxiety about the budget has had a dramatic impact on property sales in the British capital.<\/p>\n

The number of \u00a35m plus homes sold in the UK \u2013 the vast majority of which are in central\u00a0London – fell 18% in the year to September, according to research by Knight Frank.<\/p>\n

Now that the autumn statement is out of the way two more milestone events promise to shape\u00a0how the autumn property market plays out.<\/p>\n

On November 5 America goes to the polls. The race for the White House has rarely been\u00a0tighter with Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump slugging it out to win\u00a0over undecided voters. Just the prospect of a Trump victory has been encouraging US buyers\u00a0to invest in safety net property in London.<\/p>\n

A second Trump presidency can only increase the flow of Americans house hunting in London, although a volatile president could interfere with everything from transatlantic diplomatic relations, to trade agreements, and the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Two days later the Bank of England (BoE) meets to discuss interest rates, following a cut to\u00a0the rate over the summer. Kain believes that rates could fall over the next 12 to 18 months,\u00a0dropping to between 3.5% and 4%, however, falls in rates could be scuppered by higher\u00a0spending and inflation as a result of the budget.<\/p>\n

July\u2019s rate cut had a positive impact on the market. While completion numbers have fallen in the past year the number of sales agreed has been increasing, which should be reflected in improving data by the end of the year. According to central London house price analyst LonRes reports the number of properties going under offer in September \u2013 in all price brackets – increased by 22.1% annually. \u201cThere was a bit of feelgood factor, and a mini surge of confidence when rates dropped, and with a new Government in office,\u201d said Kain. \u201cAnother cut could have a similarly positive effect.\u201d Whether the BoE\u2019s monetary committee will be brave enough to cut is another matter. The Consumer Price Index, a key measure of inflation, stands at 2.5%, and is not forecast to hit two per cent, the target level set by the bank, until 2029.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/a>\"\"<\/p>\n

Pastures New<\/h1>\n

After years of uncertainty Reeves confirmed that the new high speed rail service between\u00a0London and Birmingham will terminate at Euston. This commitment will trigger the\u00a0redevelopment of this unlovely transport interchange with new shops, cafes, and restaurants.<\/p>\n

\u201cTransport and infrastructure upgrades have always been successful in upscaling an area,\u201d\u00a0said Kain. \u201cJust look at the redevelopment of King\u2019s Cross which has pushed property prices\u00a0up to a whole new level.\u201d<\/p>\n

While the plans for Euston are more modest than those which have transformed King\u2019s Cross\u00a0they will shine a new spotlight on homes east of Regent\u2019s Park and in Bloomsbury. Whilst\u00a0certainly not fashionable right now both have some beautiful period townhouses and<\/p>\n

apartments, and are currently significantly better value than neighbouring west Regent\u2019s Park\u00a0and Marylebone.<\/p>\n

For buyers looking for a central London home with price growth potential, homes here\u00a0should coat tail on the back of Euston Station\u2019s increase in stature.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/a>\"\"<\/p>\n

Glittering Prizes<\/h1>\n

While sales in PCL have been slow this year, stand out properties will always find a buyer.<\/p>\n

In Mayfair the former home of Countess Raine Spencer, stepmother of Princess Diana, sold\u00a0within three days of hitting the market in October. The five bedroom house on Farm Street,\u00a0with its dining room painted exactly the same shade of red as those at Althorp House, the\u00a0princess\u2019s childhood home, had an asking price of \u00a311m.<\/p>\n

In Little Venice, meanwhile, another big ticket deal was achieved with the sale of Canal\u00a0House on Blomfield Road. The 10,000 sq ft property had an asking price of \u00a330m.<\/p>\n

According to Savills the key PCL for big ticket sales this year are the traditionally gold plated\u00a0neighbourhoods – Kensington, Belgravia and Mayfair.<\/p>\n

Like the Spencer house most of the prime homes sold this year were period properties (91%), partly because the pipeline of new build homes has started to run dry thanks to\u00a0increased planning restrictions and high construction costs post-pandemic.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/a>\"\"<\/p>\n

Essential Listening \u2013 SPF\u2019s Sarah Kelly and Rob May<\/h1>\n

This month\u2019s episode of Finding Perfect Property \u2013 Diary of a Buying Agent was extremely timely. We chatted to Sarah Kelly and Rob May from the private office at SPF about financing prime property and life insurance solutions for HNW clients. Life insurance is not something that clients often think when it comes to protecting assets from UK inheritance tax, so this episode is well worth a listen for anyone looking at protecting their assets for future generations.<\/p>\n

Listen to the episode here<\/a><\/p>\n

Watch the episode here<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/a>\"\"<\/h1>\n

Acquisition Of The Month 1: Lord\u2019s View One, St John\u2019s Wood\u00a0 – Price:\u00a0Confidential<\/h1>\n

An advantage of buying a new build flat is the possibility of negotiations to its layout and\u00a0d\u00e9cor during the building process.<\/p>\n

Black Brick were able to help clients looking for a London holiday home do just this. We\u00a0found them a brand new penthouse apartment<\/a> being built on the roof of an established\u00a0building \u2013 an increasingly common practice in smart areas of the city.<\/p>\n

The 2,358 sq ft duplex apartment ticked all their boxes. The building is secure, its apartments\u00a0are served by a lift, and it has immaculate communal spaces. The crowning glory of the three\u00a0bedroom flat is a roof garden with views of Lord\u2019s Cricket Ground and the City.<\/p>\n

We were able to view the property before its official launch. Our clients loved it but wanted\u00a0some significant changes \u2013 lift access to both floors and bathrooms fitted with designer toilets\u00a0by Japanese firm Toto – which we were able to agree with the developer during our\u00a0negotiations.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

<\/a>\"\"<\/p>\n

Acquisition Of The Month 2: The Grove, Ealing, W5 – \u00a33,100,000<\/h1>\n

Black Brick was hired to help find a perfect family home for a time poor couple in need of\u00a0expert advice and help with the legwork that goes with finding the right property.<\/p>\n

They wanted a detached home with off street parking, and with good transport links to their\u00a0offices in the City.<\/p>\n

These kinds of homes can be hard to find \u2013 owners often stay in them for decades. But we\u00a0were able to find them a five bedroom<\/a>, Victorian house with a large garden and private\u00a0driveway. The new Elizabeth Line service means trains to the City take around 20 minutes.<\/p>\n

Not only did we negotiate a substantial discount off the asking price, but we recommended an\u00a0interior designer to help our buyers redesign their new home.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rich Pickings The wealthy were predictably in the hotseat in the Labour\u2019s government\u2019s first budget in a\u00a0generation. Air passenger duty on private jets was upped by 50%. The imposition of VAT on private school fees was confirmed. More significantly, for London\u2019s property market, the Stamp Duty surcharge for second homes (irrespective of whether the buyer […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":12584,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_relevanssi_hide_post":"","_relevanssi_hide_content":"","_relevanssi_pin_for_all":"","_relevanssi_pin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_unpin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_include_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_exclude_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_no_append":"","_relevanssi_related_not_related":"","_relevanssi_related_posts":"","_relevanssi_noindex_reason":"","inline_featured_image":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":""},"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12583","market-update","type-market-update","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNovember 2024 | Property Market Update | Buying Agents | 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