{"id":10861,"date":"2023-09-29T15:40:54","date_gmt":"2023-09-29T15:40:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.black-brick.com\/?post_type=market-update&p=10861"},"modified":"2023-09-29T16:26:17","modified_gmt":"2023-09-29T16:26:17","slug":"october-2023","status":"publish","type":"market-update","link":"https:\/\/www.black-brick.com\/insights\/market-update\/october-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"October 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Goodbye To The Big Freeze \u2013 How London\u2019s Market Has Come To Terms With The New Normal<\/h1>\n

Whenever there is a big upheaval in a property market \u2013 a rise in buying taxes, a slump in prices \u2013 there are always buyers whose gut response is to stop whatever they are doing and adopt a wait and see strategy.<\/p>\n

And the long string of interest rate rises the market has just endured has been enough to put the freeze on many people\u2019s plans to move house over the past couple of years, sending transaction rates tumbling to record lows.<\/p>\n

But shock does eventually wear off, and as summer turns to autumn, London\u2019s buyers seem to have begun to reconcile themselves to the fact that cheap lending is a thing of the past. Vendors, for their part, are now increasingly willing to bend on asking price, having realised that price tags that might have worked in 2021 and 2022 simply won\u2019t fly today.<\/p>\n

The result? A healthier and more unified market than we have seen in many months, with some standout performances, new arrivals at the pinnacle of the market, and a big wave of price cutting for buyers to navigate….<\/p>\n

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At Last, Some Good News<\/h1>\n

After months on end of doom scrolling negative headlines, there have been some very welcome nuggets of good economic news in recent days.<\/p>\n

There was a surprise fall in inflation, and for the first time in almost two years, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee agreed to hold the base rate at 5.25 per cent, giving those with home loans a little breathing space and buyers much more certainty.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the latest UK House Price Index, the official Government monitor of prices, reported that prices in London had inched up by 1.1 per cent in the past month, while research from Knight Frank found that the number of exchanges agreed in London in July and August was 15 per cent higher than the five-year average for these months.<\/p>\n

Nobody is suggesting that we are now out of the woods. Interest rates remain higher than most buyers would like, particularly since they are simultaneously expected to pay hefty Stamp Duty bills. But at least matters are no longer getting worse.<\/p>\n

\u201cGood properties are selling well and there is a good supply of new buyers,\u201d said Caspar Harvard-Walls, a partner at Black Brick. \u201cBut this is the first time in our working lives that we have been in a situation where both interest rates and Stamp Duty are high, and it is understandable that we have had people taking a pause.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bolstering demand for London property has been a bubbling up of demand from North American buyers. \u201cThere has been a huge amount of wealth generation in the USA, particularly in tech,\u201d said Harvard-Walls. \u201cAnd what I am hearing is there are also a range of financial, political, and moral issues which are making them think about whether or not to stay at home.\u201d<\/p>\n

These issues include the spectre of Donald Trump returning to the White House, rising urban crime rates, and relaxation of anti-drugs legislation. London represents a safe haven for these buyers, who also see the British capital as a perfect, English-speaking gateway to Europe. \u201cOne of my clients said to me that the difference between London and San Francisco is that two hours from London is Rome,\u201d said Harvard-Walls. \u201cTwo hours from San Francisco is Detroit.\u201d<\/p>\n

One of Black Brick\u2019s recent American clients spent \u00a38.75m on an apartment in Carlos Place<\/a>, Mayfair. Their reasoning was that they visited London frequently enough that buying a property would be more cost effective than staying at Claridge\u2019s, and we found them a best-in-class property in one of Mayfair\u2019s most prestigious streets.<\/p>\n

For Camilla Dell, managing partner of Black Brick, another recent, and positive change, is that most vendors now finally accept that their homes are probably worth less today than they were a year or so ago. \u201cSellers\u2019 expectations don\u2019t come down as quickly as interest rates go up, but they are much more aware now which means that our ability to negotiate strongly for clients is much improved,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

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Why Branded Residences Are Like London Buses<\/h1>\n

Highly serviced residences with globally recognisable brand names attached have been spreading like wildfire around the globe, taking property markets from Miami to Dubai by storm.<\/p>\n

London has been relatively late to the party at this ultra-luxury end of the property market but now three upscale branded residences schemes have turned up almost at once.<\/p>\n

The Old War Office in Westminster, featuring 85 residences by Raffles Hotels & Resorts, a 120-room hotel, restaurants, bars, and a spa, officially opened its doors on September 29 in the former Government building where Winston Churchill once wore. Prices range from \u00a34m to \u00a330m.<\/p>\n

The launch follows the successful arrival of 77 residences at the Mandarin Oriental Mayfair, on Hanover Square, which are now understood to be sold out, and The Peninsula Residences, set in Belgravia overlooking Wellington Arch, which has been achieving record prices per square foot.<\/p>\n

For Caspar Harvard-Walls, this trio are the first proper branded residences to hit the capital \u2013 previous highly serviced offerings, like One Hyde Park, and 20 Grosvenor Square, have had plenty of bells and whistles when it comes to spa facilities ad but have not been fully integrated with adjacent hotel services. \u201cThe level of service is different,\u201d he said. \u201cA real branded residence has everything \u2013 you can pop downstairs for a hot stone massage, order canapes for your pre-dinner drinks, get your laundry done while you are out, and you don\u2019t have to worry about boring things like finding a cleaner.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is a profile of buyer who wants to come to London, put their bags down, and have everything they need on tap.\u201d<\/p>\n

The pedigree of the brand is hugely important to this kind of development, providing a global clientele with reassurance about the standard of service they will receive. \u201cSome of these buyers already own these residences in other cities, and they know and trust the concept,\u201d said Dell. \u201cIt gives them peace of mind.\u201d<\/p>\n

The service charges for branded homes are notoriously high, but many brands offer the chance to rent properties through the on-site hotel when owners are not not in situ. This arrangement can not only cover annual bills but provide owners with a useful chunk of holiday spending money.<\/p>\n

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Outer This World<\/h1>\n

According to the latest raft of house price data, average prices in prime central London fell by 1.4 per cent in the past year.<\/p>\n

But Knight Frank found that prime outer London \u2013 its cluster of leafy affluent suburban enclaves \u2013 have had better staying power, with prices down 0.8 per cent in the same period.<\/p>\n

The strongest annual growth in the year to August was to be found in Dulwich, southeast London, with prices up 3.6 per cent year on year.<\/p>\n

This shows that buyers are still flowing out of the centre of town in search of space, indoors and outdoors, and as a result prime outer prices are closer to the pre-pandemic peak levels than its better known counterpart.<\/p>\n

Across PCL prices are down 16 per cent on their peak levels, while prime outer prices are down by a comparatively modest eight per cent.<\/p>\n

Part of the reason for prime outer\u2019s strength is that this is a solid family house market where people go to find their forever home and are therefore somewhat less concerned by issues like short term price growth potential.<\/p>\n

And it is also no coincidence that many parts of prime outer London have great state schools, another major driver at a time when private school costs are escalating, jumping by 5.6 per cent this year according to a survey by the Independent School.<\/p>\n

\u201cPeople are very conscious about getting into the right catchment areas,\u201d said Harvard-Walls. \u201cWith the cost of living rising it has become an increasingly important issue for buyers.\u201d<\/p>\n

Last year Black Brick helped a family looking for a larger property in Dulwich \u2013 a challenge since locals tend to stay put in their family homes for years, and few houses come onto the market each year. We were able to find them a 4,500 sq ft house, being sold off market. Competition was considerable but our offer of just over \u00a35m was accepted even though it wasn\u2019t the highest bid: https:\/\/www.black-brick.com\/expertise\/case-studies\/alleyn-road\/<\/a><\/p>\n

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Sale of the Century<\/h1>\n

The proportion of homes on the market which have seen their prices cut back stands at its highest level in more than ten years.<\/p>\n

Property portal Rightmove has revealed that more than one in three homes listed on the site have had at least one price trim since being listed, the highest level seen since the start of 2011.<\/p>\n

The average reduction, said Rightmove, was 6.2 per cent but some homes are seeing much more radical cuts.<\/p>\n

A nine bedroom Georgian house in Hampstead, for example, was put on sale in June for \u00a322m. By September its asking price had been cut back down to \u00a318m, a reduction of almost 20 per cent.<\/p>\n

Black Brick\u2019s view is that homes with major price drops were probably simply overpriced to begin with. But widespread discounting is certainly confusing for buyers.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is becoming even harder for people to know what to offer for a property, because you keep seeing properties come to the market at one price and a month later \u00a31m is chopped off its price,\u201d said Dell. \u201cIt is a situation which creates uncertainty.\u201d<\/p>\n

The most obvious way to establish a property\u2019s true value is to calculate what the average price per square foot is in the area (an equation which involves access to data from both the Land Registry and LonRes). But, warned Dell, reality is a lot more complex. \u201cThere are so many subjective issues which impact on what a property is worth,\u201d she said. \u201cThe condition of the property, the aspect and views, how light it is, what floor it is on, whether there is outside space, whether the garden is south facing or not, which side of the street it is on. Unless it is a world you are really, really immersed in it is difficult to know what to offer. This is a key benefit of working with a good buying agent. The analysis we do prior to making offers gives our clients real confidence.\u201d<\/p>\n

Some buyers, particularly those who will be taking out a mortgage, are going to the trouble and expense of hiring a surveyor to value properties for them. This gives them a clearer idea of what sort of value their lender will place on a property and thus whether there will be a shortfall they need to make up.<\/p>\n

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Finding Perfect Property<\/h1>\n

Black Brick\u2019s podcast is back with a new episode this month, looking at the role of property surveys.<\/p>\n

Our guest is Peter Bird, co-founder of Bird Charles chartered surveyors and valuers, who helps us explain why a pre-sale survey is a crucial part of the buying process, arming buyers with accurate information about the state of their prospective property and giving them ammunition for price negotiations. You can listen to the latest episode here: https:\/\/www.black-brick.com\/podcast\/.<\/a><\/p>\n

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Acquisition of the Month 1: Cadogan Square, Knightsbridge SW1 – \u00a34,550,000<\/h1>\n

While London\u2019s property market has undoubtedly slowed over the past year, best in class properties still get snapped up very quickly.<\/p>\n

This was the situation our client found themselves in after setting their heart on a lateral apartment on one of London\u2019s very best garden squares<\/a>. The dual aspect property perfectly fitted their requirements \u2013 two bedrooms, a leafy view, and in the very heart of prime central London. The building is also pet friendly, crucial since our Singaporean client has a dog. It was being sold on a share of freehold basis, a rarity in prime central London where most homes are leasehold.<\/p>\n

Another buyer was also interested in the property, so the agent invited best bids. By following our advice on how much to offer our client emerged victorious.<\/p>\n

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Acquisition of the Month 2: Bickenhall Mansions, Marylebone W1 – \u00a34,350,000<\/h1>\n

Our client is based overseas but spends large stretches of time in London. He wanted a four bedroom flat in a portered building with a lift and, given his work commitments, he didn\u2019t want to have to do much in the way of renovation works.<\/p>\n

We helped him select a spacious fourth floor 2,800 sq ft apartment in a popular building<\/a> in the heart of Marylebone, his preferred location.<\/p>\n

The property, which was in move in condition, was being sold off market and we were the first in through the door.<\/p>\n

It was listed for \u00a34.5m but after careful but determined negotiations we were able to secure it at a \u00a3150,000 discount.<\/p>\n

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International: Portugal<\/h1>\n

Many of our clients own global property portfolios, but buying overseas in unfamiliar markets requires expertise, guidance, and trusted partners. That\u2019s why we\u2019ve made it our mission to partner with top buying agents in key locations.<\/p>\n

Each month we will be bringing you an \u201cin focus\u201d look at one of the new markets that we now cover, from Berlin to Miami, Dubai to Sydney. This month we take a look at Portugal.<\/p>\n

Over the past few years Lisbon, with its laid back atmosphere, culture, and easy access to the beach, has picked so many awards and plaudits for its appeal to travellers and residents that its metaphorical trophy cabinet must be groaning.<\/p>\n

Better value than Paris (and indeed most other western European capitals), less chaotic than Madrid or Rome, diminutive Lisbon (population: just over half a million) punches well above its weight, attracting star buyers from Michael Fassbender and Scarlett Johansson in recent years.<\/p>\n

Beyond Lisbon, buyers could head to the gorgeous romantic coastal city of Porto, or the newly-hip holiday destination Comporta \u2013 both George Clooney and Sharon Stone are said to have invested in plots at its CostaTerra Golf & Ocean Club. The Algarve, meanwhile, is perennially popular with British buyers.<\/p>\n

Like many European nations Portugal experienced a property boom at the height of the pandemic as buyers, national and international, began scrambling for spacious new homes with access to countryside or seaside. The covid bounce has now ended, and clearly the recent end of Portugal\u2019s \u201cgolden visa\u201d scheme, which offered residency in return for real estate investment, will have an impact on its market going forward.<\/p>\n

Sale prices, according to the Portuguese property portal Idealista, have been flat in the capital city this year, at an average of around \u00a3420 per square foot. The stunningly beautiful Porto is Portugal\u2019s second most expensive option, with average prices of \u20ac270 per square foot, with no price growth during the last 12 months.<\/p>\n

Nonetheless Knight Frank\u2019s latest prime cities forecast for 2024 predicts that prices in Lisbon will rise around two per cent next year. And lesser known cities are quietly enjoying some serious price growth. Idealista prices have increased by nine per cent year on year in the northern coastal city of Viana do Castelo, as buyers priced out of Porto spread along the coast. Vila Real, which is 60 miles inland of Porto, is another one to watch, with prices up 6.6 per cent. Faro, on the Algarve, has enjoyed annual price growth of four per cent.<\/p>\n

Portugal seems to be a particularly big hit with youthful international buyers, perhaps thanks to its hipster reputation. Knight Frank\u2019s annual Wealth Report described a \u201chuge influx of younger wealth in recent years \u2013 surfers that have earned money in the US tech sector, for example.\u201d<\/p>\n

Investors clearly believe that prime buyers will continue to invest in Portuguese real estate, and branded residences, the hallmark of a prime global property market, have begun to appear. W Hotels Worldwide\u2019s W Residences Algarve opened last spring, and this summer Martinhal Resorts opened a luxury hotel and residences in Lisbon\u2019s Park of Nations neighborhood. Hyatt Regency is at work on a development of residences in Bel\u00e9m, one of Lisbon\u2019s swankiest suburbs.<\/p>\n

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If you are interested in how Black Brick can assist you to find your perfect property in Portugal please contact Camilla.Dell@black-brick.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Goodbye To The Big Freeze \u2013 How London\u2019s Market Has Come To Terms With The New Normal Whenever there is a big upheaval in a property market \u2013 a rise in buying taxes, a slump in prices \u2013 there are always buyers whose gut response is to stop whatever they are doing and adopt a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":10863,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_relevanssi_hide_post":"","_relevanssi_hide_content":"","_relevanssi_pin_for_all":"","_relevanssi_pin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_unpin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_include_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_exclude_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_no_append":"","_relevanssi_related_not_related":"","_relevanssi_related_posts":"","_relevanssi_noindex_reason":"","inline_featured_image":false,"ghostkit_customizer_options":"","ghostkit_custom_css":"","ghostkit_custom_js_head":"","ghostkit_custom_js_foot":"","ghostkit_typography":""},"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10861","market-update","type-market-update","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nOctober 2023 | Property Market Update | Buying Agents | Black Brick<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our market report for October 2023 featuring industry news, advice 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